SCOOP: Stiles' apology and the Grit's ballot game
Plus: on defence at provincial council, convention minutiae, revealed; Ford and Chow ink a deal, skirmish in Kitchener, at committee, Edith's in, Walton's W, buyout at TVO and lighting up the Park
The race for Liberal captain is over and we have fresh intel on Saturday's convention programme. But to start — Stiles' defence, apology and pledge at provincial council over the decision to dump a rookie for insubordination.
THE LEDE
SCOOP — Marit Stiles' first address to provincial council as party captain came with a defence, an apology and a pledge.
The fallout from a controversial ouster hit the party's triannual provincial council meeting this weekend, as the top brass spiked a move to invite Sarah Jama back into caucus and trigger an early leadership review. While a motion to let the rookie back into caucus was shot down two to one, two were OKd: one to battle Jama's censure in the House, the other to provide clarity on how caucus members are disciplined.
Jama was dumped from caucus for insubordination — and it wasn't without drama. As reported in this newsletter, it wasn't her stance that got her turfed but that she wouldn't play by the rules, breaching a deal that was struck with Stiles with "repeated situations" where she went rogue, per party sources.
In a crisp Saturday morning speech from Stiles, the rookie captain admitted that her inaugural litmus test left "many disappointed," especially those who "saw themselves represented in her."
A solemn Stiles acknowledged "a challenging moment for us, for Ontario, for the world and yes, for our party." "I'm going to dive right in," she said at the start of a twenty minute spiel.
"People are demanding more from their political leaders and I know you are demanding more from me too," Stiles said. On her part, the decision to dump Jama was not "made lightly" — or one "I ever wanted to have to make," but both parties hit an "impasse." "Ultimately, we reached a point where after many times, trust was deeply broken," she recounted.
"Black and racialized women in our party have borne the weight of this disproportionately," Stiles explained, adding that the Black caucus downsizing to one member "sent a signal that progress was being eroded." Acknowledging unease with how the language used in the party's statement about Jama's removal, which one member said evoked "stereotypical tropes often used to communicate about Black people, especially Black women, who are perceived as difficult," Stiles said sorry.
"I really regret that and I'm sorry."
"Some of you told me that you were caught off guard and were forced to explain something that you couldn't," she added. "While unintentional, that's unacceptable.
While Stiles conceded that there had "not been easy conversations," she revealed changes to expect — including a pledge to work with Jama "to deliver results for people in Hamilton and beyond" while opposing the censure imposed on her. "I actually have offered her that support — to work with our team to try to figure out the best path forward through that censure," she said. Stiles promised "new and ongoing training" for party officers, caucus and staff, while working with the party to implement support "for racialized and equity deserving candidates."
Inside the Sheraton, despite some dissent amongst the ranks, the issue of Israel, Hamas and "caucus solidarity" separated. "Marit was very clear in terms of recognizing that concerns had been raised, that she understood that more work has to be done within the party and that she was willing to do that work," said party strategist Erin Morrison in a phone interview.
Still, some aren't buying it all. "More gaslighting at provincial council where the leader, director and president all BS members with zero accountability," tweeted one disgruntled former member.
It's a wrap: the Grit's ballot game
The race for provincial Grit captain is over — with voting weekend a wrap and Liberal land on tenterhooks ahead of Saturday's big reveal.
Here's the prelude on the weekend that was, the spin that is and the expectations:
Card carrying Liberals voted with a one member, one vote system across the board, where each riding has the same value regardless of size and the winner is determined by total points, not by total votes. However, lousy turnout was reported. "Turnout wasn't as high as we'd ever like," texted one source. "With a short window for voting I don't think that's unexpected."
There's multiple factors at play leading to that expected tanked turn up: Voting only took place in person for limited hours each day. There were no mail in ballots or online voting. Grits pounced on X — calling the process "unaccommodating." "So many reasons why this way, this weekend is problematic," said a second source.
Turnout in the candidates' ridings was highest, according to internal IDing: Kingston and the Islands and Beaches—East York had the highest turn up, with the help of their local organizing prowesses, according to multiple sources. Still, the overall total vote percentage is expected to be in the thirties, per one source, despite the party's projection of up to eighty thousand voters.
Meanwhile: It's spin season amongst each squad. While most are still crunching the numbers, here's how things could play out for each campaign — and the expectations within:
— Team Bonnie: Crombie's team is feeling "very well" heading into Saturday, with their "supporter turnout in some areas overperforming," according to one source. "Numbers look good," they said. "I think we did what we needed to do for our candidate here, provided people voted the way they said they planned to," texted another Crombieite.
"After two days of voting, our data shows a first ballot win for Bonnie Crombie continues to be in play," the campaign said in a statement, boasting the "strongest ground game and network of grassroots."
— Team Nate: For Team Nate and Yasir alike, their path to victory lies in their one, two pact, with a join organizing and GOTV effort this past weekend. With a head start in the race, the maverick is hoping to capitalize on a heavy focus on Northern Ontario and the party's younger, progressive flank.
In an internal missive, the candidate said he "couldn't be prouder of the campaign we ran, making it about ideas, shaping the party's direction, and encouraging so many new people to participate." "And, as it stands, my home riding of Beaches—East York had the highest percentage turnout of any riding in the province, so that feels like a win on its own."
— Team Ted: As for Hsu's squad, the "nice guy" is hoping to gain enough votes to move onto a possible second round — and it isn't being ruled out. A source on a rival campaign pointed to internal polling suggesting that Hsu could come ahead of Naqvi, with second ballot votes going to Crombie en masse. Still, it's possible that a direct transfer doesn't materialize with Hsu's focus on engaging with Nate supporters who align, including on climate policy, coming into play.
"The campaign is feeling good going into the weekend," a campaign source texted. "Our candidate has turnout rates that have always been historically higher than his counterparts. When people say they'll vote for him, they vote for him."
— Team Yasir: While Naqvi's campaign is still inputting data, senior campaign sources say they're feeling optimistic. "[It's] a fact, no one is winning this on first ballot," Naqvi told this reporter days before voting.
"Wouldn't expect super high turnout across ridings," said one insider, emphasizing that low show up indicates "everyone we got out is worth more." According to an internal memo from campaign manager Milton Chan, Team Yasir focused "on campus clubs and high impact ridings — northern and rural ridings, and urban ridings with small membership lists, where every additional vote yields a disproportionate number of points versus ridings in large urban centres."
Still: "Can't count our chickens before they've hatched," one Grit quipped.
What's next: Ranked ballots will be stored at the party's HQ before being bounced to the Metro Toronto Convention Centre for counting. Four scenarios could play out Saturday morning:
One candidate receives over half the points up for grabs in round one and is elected.
One candidate is automatically dropped after round one with three candidates remaining to battle out a second round.
Two candidates are dropped after round one with two remaining.
One candidate is eliminated after round one, a second dropped after round two. Two candidates stay on for a third round.
Second and third rounds of counting will move faster, per a source, as there's no need for a recount of votes for candidates that have stayed on and all iffy ballots will have been adjudicated in round one.
BTS, some are grumbling over the one week wait: "It's like when you finish binge watching a really long series and you're waiting for the final season to drop. You're lost, you don't know how to fill your time, you imagine scenarios about what will unfold." texted one Liberal. "Very anticlimatic that we have to wait a week," said a second.
It's been busy over in Liberal land — and this newsletter has chronicled it all. We had the scoop on Crombie and Naqvi jumping into the provincial arena, which left Grit circles abuzz. We had the jump on the voting sched and covered the BTS on each campaign: a control clash on Team Ted that led to a campaign manager's hot departure and early conflict of interest woes on another squad. We told you about the cash and the who's who. More who's who. En plus. We reported on "snoozefest" debate grumblings — and minor changes to the format in Ottawa. We wrote lengthy biogs of each candidate:
— She's hoping to bristle Doug Ford's Tories out of power. More on Bonnie.
— He's the maverick in the race. More on Nate.
— He's a chess whiz hoping to put Doug Ford's Tories into political checkmate. More on Ted.
— This "many of many hats" says fighting back against stagnancy is in his bloodline. More on Yasir.
Plus: For our inaugural editorial event, in partnership with three of Ontario's major teachers' unions, this intrepid reporter sat down with the four at the Isabel Bader Theatre to chat about their visions for rebuilding the party and governing the province. The Trillium has the sum up as the candidates spoke on election missteps, memoir titles and the race's twofer that left them all thorny.
Our avid readers would know that this newsletter has been a deeply reported, essential read during the race for Liberal leader. Thank you for joining our community. Keep sending your tips and hot gossip.
Convention 411; revealed
SCOOP — With the race over, it's a big weekend ahead for the Liberals. Members, supporters, stalwarts and operatives alike will huddle at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre to crown the incoming leader.
While the minutiae of Saturday's convention is still in flux, here's fresh intel on what to expect.
— The lineup: Former premiers Kathleen Wynne and Dalton McGuinty will speak "to help welcome our new leader — and Ontario's next premier," per an internal memo. Interim party captain John Fraser is also set to speak.
Unlike the party's last leadership huddle, the four candidates will appear via video, speaking before the release of the round one tally. Party president Kathryn McGarry is in charge of unveiling each result until a new leader is named, with result of each round expected to trickle in throughout the day as live ballot counting happens elsewhere in the complex. A media avail with the new leader will take place after their triumph speech inside the hall.
"If there is a winner after only one round of counting, we can expect the official programming to end early afternoon with a post announcement party outside Hall G," the party says. "Further rounds of counting could see the event continuing until late afternoon or early evening."
— With each tally drop, expect to see live, "Oscar style" reactions from each candidate in the room. "They won't know any results before," said a source. "All the networks wanted the shot so there will be a press viewing area."
For those in the room, the screen will be split into three columns: candidate name, points and percentage of votes.
Take it all with a grain of salt. "Fluid," said one source about the plan. According to another, the organizing group is "so airtight" that a complete programme has yet to be relayed to each camp. "We still aren't certain what we're walking into," they texted, while a third said the lineup is expected to be inked later this week, as early as Thursday.
Our big question: Will the Tories make a surprise cameo with swag?
NEWS WATCH
Toronto has inked a deal with the province to upload responsibility for the city's two major expressways as budgetary reprieve. In exchange, the city will clear the way for the Tories' controversial redevelopment plan of Ontario Place, admitting the "province has the authority" over the acreage. Read up.
It's part of Ford's promise to dig up "common ground" with Toronto's mayor, after he forecasted an "unmitigated disaster" if Olivia Chow won the city's mayorship.
"This will have major financial ramifications," wrote municipal wonk Matt Elliott.
The union representing the province's elementary teachers has reached a tentative four year agreement with the Ford government. While it's still up for a ratification vote, Education Minister Stephen Lecce took the W on X: "This is another significant tentative deal that demonstrates our government's relentless focus on stability and getting students 'back to basics' in the classroom," he said.
It's exit season at Ontario's public broadcaster. After a fresh deal with a wage boost and some retroactive cash was OKd, staff were asked to decide whether to take "voluntary buyouts," so there's a "clean break" and anger does not "fester" in the workplace. Queen's Park Today with the story.
New documents obtained by Global show that "several prominent ministers" in cabinet had "large stretches of inactivity on their official devices when critical government decisions were being made." One minister made zero phone calls on their government cell during a month, while others made between one and twenty minutes of calls from their devices.
Ontario is "mandating new mandatory learning about the Holodomor famine" and the impact it had on the Ukrainian community in Canada, including "education about extreme political ideologies and how they enabled 'political repression.'"
The province shot down "big cities' ask to allow more of them to get housing infrastructure money" at an annual housing forum on Monday.
AT THE PALACE
— The house is in session with a gestic week on the committee circuit.
At Public Accounts: The committee met on Monday for a closed "report writing" session on the Auditor General's "scathing" Greenbelt audit.
At Heritage: It's all about the government's municipal land boundaries reversal. The committee is having a marathon of meetings until Friday for clause à clause examination for the Planning Statute Law Amendment Act. On Thursday and Friday, it's public hearings and consideration of the Greenbelt Statute Law Amendment Act, which would make Premier Ford's Greenbelt backtrack the law of the land.
At Cultural Policy: The Better for Consumers, Better for Businesses Act is up for review today.
— "Getting it Undone?" All eyes on Liberal MPP Stephen Blais' amendment to rename the bill reversing the changes to the municipalities plan as the "Getting It Undone Act." Spoiler alert: it's a bottom dog — and it's not a bop on the Tories' campaign song.
— Edith Dumont has made her debut as Lieutenant Governor. A special education teacher and school principal who served as the vice president of partnerships for the Université de l'Ontario français, Dumont was installed, replacing Elizabeth Dowdeswell.
Our tepid readers would recall that this newsletter noted Dumont's appointment comes three years after Dowdeswell's initial term was set to expire — which raised questions as to why PMJT waited to name his pick. "They took their eye off ball," speculated one source, citing the hullabaloo around Julie Payette's resignation as Governor General.
— A PC MPP is apologizing for "not clearly distinguishing between extremist practices and the Muslim faith and community as a whole," after the National Council of Canadian Muslims scrounged Premier Ford to take "swift action" against her, accusing Goldie Ghamari of "spreading divisive messaging" through "dangerous statements and retweets that peddle Islamophobic tropes."
— Tis the season to light up the Park — with the annual light display and tall, Green Xmas trees now glamming the building.
Cue the carolers and the Christmas cards!
ON THE MOVE
Laura Walton is the next president of the Ontario Federation of Labour. The former head of CUPE's Ontario School Board Council of Unions, Walton was the face of a showdown with the Ford government over the use of the notwithstanding clause to block education workers from walking off the job last November.
"It doesn't end today, it starts today. Let's go get it," Walton, who ran uncontested for the top job, said at the convention after her win.
Ahmad Gaied and Jackie Taylor of Team Ignite have also been elected to the executive.
Queen's Park alumni Travis Dhanraj is the new host of CBC News' Canada Tonight. "Energized by the opportunity," he said, set to take over the anchor's chair in the new year.
Some familiar faces around the block have made it to Toronto Life's "most influential Torontonians" roster.
7 — Jenni Byrne for being the "federal Conservatives' Olivia Pope figure and the Liberals' worst nightmare."
8 — Bonnie Lysyk for rounding out her term as auditor general "with the mother of all mic drops."
10 — Doug Ford "because, despite a gaffe laden year, his clout is undeniable."
29 — Kinga Surma for "presiding over the most controversial files" and pushing her vision through "despite the cacophony of dissent."
WHAT WE'RE READING
THE TRILLIUM: "RCMP's Greenbelt investigation causes ethics watchdog to set aside Vegas trip probe" by Charlie Pinkerton
"Why Ontario's sluggish death reporting system frustrates public health experts" by Patrick Cain
TORONTO STAR: "'It's going to come down to the wire': Greens predict tight race in Kitchener byelection" by Rob Ferguson
CANADIAN PRESS: "Number of people using Ontario food banks rose 38 per cent last year: report"
"NDP seeks to make it illegal to pass on solid double yellow lines"
CBC NEWS: "'Shocking' drop in charges and orders from Ontario animal welfare investigations has advocates concerned" by Bobby Hristova
"Reducing road salt use 'not something that can wait' as Ontario lakes see oxygen depletion, researcher says" by Kate Bueckert
CTV NEWS: "Changes may soon be coming to how booze is sold in Ontario. Here's what some in the industry are hoping to see" by Cody Wilson
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. I'll be on the ground at the Liberals' big leadership reveal — mingling with the grassroots, doing live radio and scrumming with the next captain. Come say hi and hit me up with the hot buzz and convention gossip I need to hear — you'll stay anon. Was this forwarded to you? Join Ontario's most plugged in and get the newsletter in your inbox.