Fall forecast

THE LEDE

137 days later, we’re back. Does anyone want to be Liberal leader? Doug Ford is standing by David Piccini, but Tories are divided on if — and how long — he can hold on. Is one cabinet minister about to bow out? But to start, here’s what the political crowd is watching for this fall session.

— Laryssa Waler, Premier Ford’s ex-communications director and the CEO of Henley Strategies, says the Tories will stick to their message, with Donald Trump front and centre this fall. Crime, red-tape reduction and help for industries bruised by the trade war will also top the to-do list.

“That’s what people care about, that’s what they’re worried about — and that’s what’s top of mind for the Premier too,” she says.

For Mitch Heimpel, an ex-chief and vice-president at Texture, last week’s Empire Club speech gave a peek at what will drive the Ford government this fall.

“I think he wants to protect highly trade-exposed sectors — and there’s interest in doing something about business taxes to spur innovation and growth,” says Heimpel. “If he can actually reduce the amount of permits and processes the government is responsible for, that will be a huge win for the economy.”

With Ford’s popularity holding steady, Waler isn’t convinced the Opposition will make much of a dent. “I don’t think they’re a challenge to the government,” she says. “They’re wildly ineffective and they have no idea what normal people think about or care about. Their idea of speaking about things that people are worried about is tweeting inaccuracies about a weekend in Paris when people are worried about their jobs.”

“Until the opposition figures it out, they’ll be lost in obscurity.”

— Erin Morrison, who worked for Jagmeet Singh and is a vice-president at Texture, says there’s been a clear recalibration in Marit Stiles’ tone post-leadership review — and it’ll show when she’s back in the House.

“She’s taken on a stronger tone,” says Morrison. “She’s a bit more herself, a bit less scripted. I think that’s going to work for her.”

Expect the focus, Morrison says, to be squarely on jobs — a message shaped by a summer listening tour. “Jobs, jobs, jobs. Nothing will get fixed for people without them. I think she used this break wisely — taking the time to refocus, sharpen her team and sharpen her approach. I think that’ll pay off.”

In the chamber, Stiles has two big opportunities: to look like a premier-in-waiting and make the most of a Liberal Party still searching for a leader.

“People are looking at Doug Ford’s progress and saying: ’You promised to deal with crime — it’s worse than ever. You promised to deal with jobs — we’re almost at 8 per cent unemployment.’ I think people will start to see folksiness as a bit of a fig leaf. He’s not getting the job done — and for Stiles, that means she has to ignore the noise and get to the heart of why life is hard for people right now.”

By grounding their message in day-to-day struggles, Morrison argues the Dippers can do what the Liberals can’t.

“The Liberals, yet again, are focused on themselves, focused on their infighting. That means they’re not talking about the 800,000 people without a job, the health-care wait times, the price of homes… I think there’s a huge opportunity for Marit Stiles, and I see her poised to take it.”

Speaking of which: Expect Stiles to come out sharper — and feistier — than usual in Question Period. “She knows how to get under Doug’s skin,” a plugged-in source said. “You can expect more of that — especially about the fact that he can’t seem to do anything about the job losses in this province.”

— Marcel Wieder, the president of Aurora Strategy Global, says we can expect the Liberals to slam a government too busy talking about Donald Trump.

“Whether it’s the hospital crisis they’ve ignored, the situation in our schools and universities, or the struggles in the automotive and manufacturing sectors, they’ve conveniently tried to sidestep it all with a $75-million campaign designed to distract people from their own faulty record,” says Weider.

In practice: The seasoned Liberal strategist says they’ll be driving an economic message. “The government is blowing past every goal — whether on the budget or housing. They continue to operate with low regard for taxpayers, and I think that’ll be a focus for the party.”

With a leadership race ahead — and some caucus members eyeing the top job — Wieder says unity isn’t optional. “We’re about to enter a leadership race that could fracture the party — and what’s important is that the Liberals come together… The main focus needs to be on keeping the government to account.”

Can they do it? Wieder thinks so. “We’ve got a strong bunch — pound for pound, they punch way above their weight.”

Read up: The Canadian Press has more on what is expected to be a “short but intense” fall session.

A message from Next Campaign:

Watching Piccini — Can David Piccini hang on?

Those close to the labour minister — and Doug Ford himself — insist he’s safe. But behind the scenes, Tories are divided on whether he can hold on — and for how long.