Nate Erskine-Smith has lost his appeal of the Scarborough Southwest nomination contest. A PC MPP is recovering from surgery, but says she’s not going anywhere. The NDP is turning up the heat in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Plus, a Monday surprise at the cabinet table. But to start:
Seen: He’s in! Navdeep Bains is entering the Liberal leadership contest. He posted a teaser video to X earlier today, and his campaign website is already live.
Nate Erskine-Smith has lost his appeal of the Scarborough Southwest nomination contest. A PC MPP is recovering from surgery, but says she’s not going anywhere. The NDP is turning up the heat in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Plus, a Monday surprise at the cabinet table. But to start:
Seen: He’s in! Navdeep Bains is entering the Liberal leadership contest. He posted a teaser video to X earlier today, and his campaign website is already live.
Nate Erskine-Smith has lost his appeal of the Scarborough Southwest nomination contest. A PC MPP is recovering from surgery, but says she’s not going anywhere. The NDP is turning up the heat in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Plus, a Monday surprise at the cabinet table. But to start:
Seen: He’s in! Navdeep Bains is entering the Liberal leadership contest. He posted a teaser video to X earlier today, and his campaign website is already live.
Who’s who: Jamie Kippen will run Bains’ campaign. We’re told Bains has racked up endorsements from Arielle Kayabaga, Jenna Sudds, Karina Gould, Omar Alghabra and Mark Holland. Yasir Naqvi, who placed third in the 2023 leadership contest, is also endorsing the ex-Trudeau minister.
Meanwhile: Rob Cerjanec is expected to formally enter the leadership race as early as Wednesday, we’re told.
Mulroney’s out — The President of the Treasury Board is leaving provincial politics.
What she’s saying: “Two years ago, I lost my father. Last year, my husband Andrew and I became empty nesters. These are the kinds of moments that clarify what matters,” Caroline Mulroney wrote in a three-page statement. “Together, they have led me to the conclusion that now is the right time to step back from elected life and begin a new chapter, one I am genuinely excited about.”
To Doug Ford, she added: “It has been an honour to serve in your cabinet... Thank you for your trust, your friendship and your unwavering commitment to this province.”
What he’s saying: The Premier — expected to pair a York-Simcoe by-election with Scarborough Southwest this summer — praised his “close personal friend,” saying her record is one “she can be immensely proud of.”
Added Ford: “Politics is in Caroline’s blood. The Ontario PC Party and our conservative movement will no doubt continue to benefit from her ideas and ideals.”
Behind the scenes: While Mulroney informed Ford on Sunday, much of cabinet was caught by surprise Monday morning when they learned of her sudden departure. But others say Mulroney’s decision — as a mother of four university-aged children — was easy to understand: “They’ve always been a huge concern for her,” one source said. “I think she wants more personal time than the job allows.”
That said: Eight years is a long stretch in politics — and by this point in any government, it’s natural that some of the oldest soldiers begin to ask themselves whether it’s time to leave public life.
But like Monte McNaughton and Rod Phillips before her, time away for Mulroney — long mentioned as a possible successor to Ford — would help separate her from the wear-and-tear of an aging government in a future leadership contest.
Everyone’s favourite s-word: Peter Bethlenfalvy and Natalia Kusendova-Bashta will take over Treasury Board and Francophone Affairs, respectively, but Ford will eventually need to name Mulroney’s permanent successor. It could all be part of a wider front-bench reboot, expected as early as June.
Already: We’re hearing at least two more cabinet ministers could soon follow Mulroney out. For one: As we’ve previously reported, Neil Lumsden — who despite a government spokesperson insisting otherwise — is said to be weighing retirement, and the NDP is already aggressively canvassing Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
Said one source: “I would assume cabinet has been told to express interest in leaving now, or forever hold their peace.”
But keep in mind: As every minister will tell you, the intricacies of any cabinet reboot — the who and the when — are typically finalized at the last minute and known only to Ford and his chief. But don’t kid yourself: around the cabinet table, everyone’s already quietly gaming out their chances.
A message from Alto:
SCOOP — “The appeal is dismissed:” A three-member arbitration panel has tossed Nate Erskine-Smith’s appeal, declaring that Ahsanul Hafiz was the “true winner” of the nomination contest in Scarborough Southwest.
For background: Erskine-Smith’s claim of “serious irregularities,” ranging from unaccounted-for ballots to inconsistent ID enforcement and questionable behaviour inside the voting room, had detonated a full-blown civil war in Liberal land.
But in a 17-page decision released late Sunday, the panel — including David Zimmer, Jennifer Norman and Adam Goldberg — rejected the appeal outright. They wrote: “Having carefully considered all of the evidence, we find that there were no irregularities in the conduct of the nomination meeting that affected the result of the vote or that call the meeting’s integrity into question.”
The big picture: It’s a devastating blow to Erskine-Smith, with the panel rejecting virtually every major allegation he made— including concerns about 34 “unaccounted-for ballots.” Instead, the panel concluded the discrepancy stemmed from what it called a “record-keeping error,” not evidence that ineligible voters cast ballots.
What they found: While 1,523 ballots were counted, only 1,489 names had initially been crossed off the voters list. But upon reviewing credentials forms, the returning officer identified 20 eligible voters whose names had simply not been marked off the list. That reduced the discrepancy to 14 votes — just under Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.
They concluded: “Even if there were evidence that 14 individuals voted at the meeting who had not been deemed eligible to vote — and, for the reasons given above, the evidence does not support this — a 14-vote discrepancy would still be insufficient to overcome Mr. Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.”
Second: The arbitrators rejected Erskine-Smith’s arguments about inconsistencies in how voters were ID’d, concluding the returning officer had broad discretion to decide what counted as acceptable identification — including electronic records and other non-traditional documents.
Erskine-Smith argued that Milton Chan’s involvement created a reasonable apprehension of bias because he was both a “known political opponent” — having managed Yasir Naqvi’s last leadership campaign — and a close friend of Tom Allison, Hafiz’s chief scrutineer. Chan managed the credentials desk at the nomination meeting.
The arbitrators weren’t persuaded. “There is no evidence” that Chan is a current “political opponent” of Erskine-Smith, the panel wrote, arguing that Chan’s involvement in a rival leadership campaign years prior did not mean he was trying to undermine Erskine-Smith in Scarborough Southwest.
They added: “[Chan] made eligibility determinations with which Mr. Hafiz’s campaign — and [Allison] specifically — disagreed, just as he made determinations with which Mr. Erskine-Smith’s camp disagreed. We see no fair basis on which to cast aspersions on this individual’s role in making eligibility determinations at the Scarborough Southwest nomination meeting… We pause here to note that, in any internal party contest, some of the individuals involved will inevitably have worked against and alongside one another on other campaigns over the years. It is not also surprising, let alone improper, for party officials at a nomination meeting to have friends, even close friends, involved in one or more of the nomination campaigns. The Ontario Liberal Party is a volunteer-driven organization and there are only so many of us who are willing and able to give of our time to support the party and its activities. One cannot remain involved in party politics over time unless one is willing and able to oppose one’s friends, or to rule against them, in internal party contests. Nothing about this is irregular or improper.”
On allegations of questionable conduct inside the voting room — including allegations that some voters were taking photos inside the voting room — the panel was equally dismissive, writing that none of it undermined confidence in the legitimacy of the result.
Of note: Arbitrators pointed repeatedly to the fact that many of the Erskine-Smith campaign’s concerns were only raised after the results were known, not during the meeting itself.
The big picture: At the heart of the ruling was a broader defence of volunteer-run nomination contests.
The panel leaned heavily on the Supreme Court’s Opitz ruling, which found that “imperfections” are inevitable — and that “courts cannot demand perfect certainty” in the conduct of elections. Applying that logic here, arbitrators argued the same standard should apply to party nominations, where the key test is whether the integrity of the process was ultimately maintained.
What the party is saying: In a statement, the Ontario Liberal Party said it will now “unite behind our candidate and work together to win this seat.” Added interim Liberal leader John Fraser: “Now that the arbitration committee dismissed this appeal, our focus is the voters of Scarborough Southwest. They have an important decision ahead, and we will work hard to earn their trust.”
Erskine-Smith did not respond to a request for comment.
— The House is in session.
Today: Second reading debate of Tom Rakocevic, Jessica Bell and Kristyn Wong-Tam’s Bill 113, the Fair Prices and Tax-Free Groceries Act. No word yet on the rest of this week’s business.
Also happening:
— Fundraising watch: At 5:30 p.m., the Tories are hosting a $1,500-a-ticket fundraiser in Toronto. RSVP.
At 6:30 p.m., Liberal leader John Fraser will speak at a $200-a-ticket event in Oakville. RSVP.
Tomorrow at 6 p.m., the Tories are hosting yet another $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser. RSVP.
On Saturday at 11:30 a.m., Dalton McGuinty will speak about his new book at a $75-a-ticket luncheon in Niagara Falls. RSVP.
— 🍴 On the lunch menu: Monday: Chicken souvlaki with potatoes and vegetables. Tuesday: Beef brisket with potatoes and vegetables. Wednesday: Sweet and sour pork with rice and vegetables. Thursday: Fish and chips. Friday: Smoked turkey pasta alla vodka with salad and garlic bread.
— City Hall’s open secret: The Star goes inside Toronto City Hall, where allegations of a “toxic” workplace culture drove a covert union drive. One aide “described being sexually harassed by a colleague, including extremely intimate and unwelcomed questions about their body parts — with no reprimand from the councillor once it was raised. This staffer said meanwhile they would often get ’disparaging’ personal feedback rather than constructive criticism about the work itself. They eventually took a leave of absence.”
Meanwhile: Olivia Chow is running for re-election. “There’s plenty of time to campaign in the fall,” she said. “I registered today to say one thing: to the people of Toronto, I am in your corner. I’ve always been and always will be.”
— Furious Ford: “Premier Doug Ford says a decision by an Ontario Superior Courtjustice that prevents the Region of Waterloo from clearing the encampment at 100 Victoria St. N. in Kitchener is ’the most ridiculous ruling I’ve ever seen.’”
— Blue who? The Ford government is going to court to stop the release of documents connected to the abandoned blue licence plates.
Meanwhile: “The Ontario Appeal Court has dismissed the government’s attempt to cancel an order telling civil servants to access Doug Ford’s personal call logs, reactivating a requirement for the premier to hand over his records.”
— Martin Regg Cohn writes on Speaker Donna Skelly: “Thanks to her previous career as a television newscaster, Skelly has a commanding voice and presence that exude authority. With her dulcet tones perfected on air, and the power of inflection, she needn’t raise her voice the way so many of her male predecessors did in frustration and futility.”
— Canadians are increasingly upbeat about the direction of the country, a new survey found.
— It’s a mutiny: One city is taking the Ford government to court over strong mayor powers, though John Michael McGrath argues it probably won’t work.
Stratford’s mayor is backing the court challenge, though he’s questioning the price tag and chances of success. “Do we spend taxpayers’ dollars on a process that we don’t know what the total cost will be?” he asked.
The government says extending these powers was the right call.
— The Kandavel probe: “Police investigators digging into allegations against Toronto councillor Parthi Kandavel have recently reached out to developers at a third property… The inquiry to developers at the third property was made in mid-May, after the police probe was made public.”
(It’s a sigh of relief for many Liberals: Before deciding on an open race, John Fraser had considered appointing one of several candidates in Scarborough Southwest — including Kandavel.)
— AI is already creeping into municipal politics.
A message from Alto:
— The Tories and Liberals are neck-and-neck, according to a new Liaison poll.
By the numbers: Both parties sit at 37 per cent — the second straight time the ruling party has failed to open up a lead — followed by the NDP at 20 per cent, ahead of the Greens at 4 per cent.
Just 28 per cent approve of the Premier’s performance, while 67 per cent disapprove. Nearly two-thirds — 64 per cent — believe Ontario is on the wrong track, versus 31 per cent who say it’s not.
.png)
The survey tested public opinion on kitchen-table issues. Just under two-thirds — 63 per cent — say it will be the primary factor driving how they vote in the next election.
Asked what has been hardest to manage in their household budgets, respondents pointed first to groceries at 38 per cent, with housing not far behind at 35 per cent. The numbers reveal a clear age gap: younger Ontarians are far more likely to cite housing costs, while older respondents are feeling the squeeze most at the grocery store.
Meanwhile: The Ford government’s cost-of-living policies are landing with a thud. Just six per cent of respondents said policies like gas tax cuts and tax credits have made a significant impact in their finances. Another 18 per cent reported a moderate impact, but nearly three-quarters — 74 per cent — said the measures have had only a minor impact or none at all.
The methodology: Conducted on May 15 and 16 via IVR, the survey polled 1,000 voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1 per cent.
— First: Daisy Wai says she is recovering at home following surgery.
“It was very successful,” the PC MPP, who is in “good spirits,” wrote Friday. “I am expecting a full recovery and will return to Queen’s Park soon. I look forward to continuing serving my constituents in Richmond Hill.”
She added: “I am thankful that Premier Ford and all caucus members are very supportive and encouraging.”
Meanwhile: Wai poured cold water on rumours that she’s preparing to step down, calling them “totally incorrect” and saying they have “no ground.”
(Wai hasn’t spoken in the House since April, when she was met with a long standing ovation from colleagues following her members’ statement. At least one PC MPP appeared visibly emotional.)
— Noted: Matt Rae is the Tories’ new caucus chair, taking over from Will Bouma.
— Noticed: Every NDP MPP is asking whether ministries spent any money connected to the private jet: “Would the _____________ confirm if they consented to and if any Ministry of _____________ funding contributed to the Ontario government’s purchase of a Bombardier 650 Challenger private jet.”
— We’re two: Some 150 of Ontario’s top political players gathered earlier this month to celebrate our second birthday and the launch of our new podcast, “The Insiders.”
Seen: Marit Stiles, Jordan Berger, Stephen Lecce, Doug Downey, Bonnie Crombie, Patrick Brown, Adil Shamji, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell, Vik Handa, Rob Cerjanec, Melody Kuo, Patrick Sackville, Christine Simundson, Steve Doherty, Nicolas Di Marco, Chelsea McGee, Justine Teplycky, Michel Figueredo, Jack Fazzari, Bianca Giacoboni, Dayna Smockum, Sydney Pothakos, Melanie Paradis, Erin Morrison, Ivanna Purkiss, Ben Purkiss, Holly Fullager, Sharan Kaur, Kyle Jacobs, Forrest Parlee, Lucas Meyer, Jad El Tal, Mayeesha Chowdhury, Christy Kheirallah, Marzian Alam, Kathryn McGarry, Darryn McArthur, Elizabeth Young, David Valentin, Joseph Angolano, Quito Maggi, Ferd Longo, A.J. Mawani, Laura Walton, Chris Cowley, René Jansen in de Wal, Kim Wright, Harneet Singh, Hasneet Singh Punia, Josh Matlow, Keerthana Rang, Marcel Weider, Charlie Pinkerton, Tina Yazdani, Kamil Karamali, Ginella Massa, Travis Dhanraj, Sarbjit Kaur, Karman Wong, Alan Hale, Dan Earle, Lorne Levy, Madalyn Calzvara, Nathaniel Arfin, Evan Sambasivam, Noah Parker, Gabe Blanc, Mahdis Habibina, Bahoz Dara Aziz, Eric Osborne, Supriya Dwivedi, Natalie Hart and more.
— In memoriam: Former Toronto councillor Howard Moscoe has died. He was 86.
— Aidan Thompson is out at the Liberal Services Caucus Bureau, joining Liberal MP Danielle Martin. (Thompson was communications director on Martin’s by-election campaign.)
Gabrielle Glasier is the new manager of stakeholder relations and major events.
— Olivia Akena has joined Texture Communications as a senior communications consultant.
Holly Fullager, who previously worked for Natural Resources Minister Mike Harris Jr., is now a director at Texture.
— Vickramjeet Aujla, Raymond Caputo, Asher Fishman, Peter Horgan and Anya Kortenaar have been appointed to the Ontario Court of Justice. Herb Kreling has been appointed regional senior justice of the peace for the East.
— Camillo Cipriano is the new CEO of the Toronto District School Board.
— Sarah McQuarrie is joining the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario as chief strategy officer.
— Jason Rowe, Stacey Rowe and Tom Cardinal have resigned from the Carpenters’ Regional Council.
Zooming out: The United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America is investigating the union over the purchase of two high-value properties near Toronto, including one occupied by Rowe and his wife.
— Over at the Ontario Federation of Labour, an independent workplace investigation into Laura Walton found that none of the complaints against her amounted to “breaches of the Collective Agreement, the Occupational Health and Safety Act, or the Ontario Human Rights Code.”
— Robin Jones will not seek re-election as Westport Village’s mayor. Jones is the president of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario.
Over in Mississauga: Michelle Baker will run in Ward 2, now represented by Alvin Tedjo. Baker is the executive director of Ontario’s Big City Mayors and a former chief to then-Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie.
— Noted: Stephen Lecce and Melissa Lantsman are the co-chairs of Steven Del Duca’s re-election campaign in Vaughan.
Zi-Ann Lum of POLITICO and Jeremy Borg of Western Standard have joined the Legislative Press Gallery.
— The subject line on Lee Fairclough’s latest email to supporters: “While others whine, Lee wins.”
Overheard: Some on Fairclough’s team have been making calls to Erskine-Smith supporters.
— Noted: A controversial freeze on freedom of information requests has been reversed.
Meet the “Section 31 Liberals,” a faction urging the party to bar temporary residents from voting in nomination and leadership contests.
The Home Depot is the latest to join Ontario Corps.
— Seen: Beehives on the roof of Queen’s Park.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Did David Zimmer and co. make the right call on Scarborough Southwest? Will the House rise early? Hit me up — anonymity guaranteed, just like the sources you’re wondering about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
Got 5+ on your team? Team subscriptions are available. Got a client with a message to reach the province’s most powerful players? Ask for our ad rates. Reach out.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now.
Nate Erskine-Smith has lost his appeal of the Scarborough Southwest nomination contest. A PC MPP is recovering from surgery, but says she’s not going anywhere. The NDP is turning up the heat in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Plus, a Monday surprise at the cabinet table. But to start:
Seen: He’s in! Navdeep Bains is entering the Liberal leadership contest. He posted a teaser video to X earlier today, and his campaign website is already live.
Who’s who: Jamie Kippen will run Bains’ campaign. We’re told Bains has racked up endorsements from Arielle Kayabaga, Jenna Sudds, Karina Gould, Omar Alghabra and Mark Holland. Yasir Naqvi, who placed third in the 2023 leadership contest, is also endorsing the ex-Trudeau minister.
Meanwhile: Rob Cerjanec is expected to formally enter the leadership race as early as Wednesday, we’re told.
Mulroney’s out — The President of the Treasury Board is leaving provincial politics.
What she’s saying: “Two years ago, I lost my father. Last year, my husband Andrew and I became empty nesters. These are the kinds of moments that clarify what matters,” Caroline Mulroney wrote in a three-page statement. “Together, they have led me to the conclusion that now is the right time to step back from elected life and begin a new chapter, one I am genuinely excited about.”
To Doug Ford, she added: “It has been an honour to serve in your cabinet... Thank you for your trust, your friendship and your unwavering commitment to this province.”
What he’s saying: The Premier — expected to pair a York-Simcoe by-election with Scarborough Southwest this summer — praised his “close personal friend,” saying her record is one “she can be immensely proud of.”
Added Ford: “Politics is in Caroline’s blood. The Ontario PC Party and our conservative movement will no doubt continue to benefit from her ideas and ideals.”
Behind the scenes: While Mulroney informed Ford on Sunday, much of cabinet was caught by surprise Monday morning when they learned of her sudden departure. But others say Mulroney’s decision — as a mother of four university-aged children — was easy to understand: “They’ve always been a huge concern for her,” one source said. “I think she wants more personal time than the job allows.”
That said: Eight years is a long stretch in politics — and by this point in any government, it’s natural that some of the oldest soldiers begin to ask themselves whether it’s time to leave public life.
But like Monte McNaughton and Rod Phillips before her, time away for Mulroney — long mentioned as a possible successor to Ford — would help separate her from the wear-and-tear of an aging government in a future leadership contest.
Everyone’s favourite s-word: Peter Bethlenfalvy and Natalia Kusendova-Bashta will take over Treasury Board and Francophone Affairs, respectively, but Ford will eventually need to name Mulroney’s permanent successor. It could all be part of a wider front-bench reboot, expected as early as June.
Already: We’re hearing at least two more cabinet ministers could soon follow Mulroney out. For one: As we’ve previously reported, Neil Lumsden — who despite a government spokesperson insisting otherwise — is said to be weighing retirement, and the NDP is already aggressively canvassing Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
Said one source: “I would assume cabinet has been told to express interest in leaving now, or forever hold their peace.”
But keep in mind: As every minister will tell you, the intricacies of any cabinet reboot — the who and the when — are typically finalized at the last minute and known only to Ford and his chief. But don’t kid yourself: around the cabinet table, everyone’s already quietly gaming out their chances.
A message from Alto:
SCOOP — “The appeal is dismissed:” A three-member arbitration panel has tossed Nate Erskine-Smith’s appeal, declaring that Ahsanul Hafiz was the “true winner” of the nomination contest in Scarborough Southwest.
For background: Erskine-Smith’s claim of “serious irregularities,” ranging from unaccounted-for ballots to inconsistent ID enforcement and questionable behaviour inside the voting room, had detonated a full-blown civil war in Liberal land.
But in a 17-page decision released late Sunday, the panel — including David Zimmer, Jennifer Norman and Adam Goldberg — rejected the appeal outright. They wrote: “Having carefully considered all of the evidence, we find that there were no irregularities in the conduct of the nomination meeting that affected the result of the vote or that call the meeting’s integrity into question.”
The big picture: It’s a devastating blow to Erskine-Smith, with the panel rejecting virtually every major allegation he made— including concerns about 34 “unaccounted-for ballots.” Instead, the panel concluded the discrepancy stemmed from what it called a “record-keeping error,” not evidence that ineligible voters cast ballots.
What they found: While 1,523 ballots were counted, only 1,489 names had initially been crossed off the voters list. But upon reviewing credentials forms, the returning officer identified 20 eligible voters whose names had simply not been marked off the list. That reduced the discrepancy to 14 votes — just under Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.
They concluded: “Even if there were evidence that 14 individuals voted at the meeting who had not been deemed eligible to vote — and, for the reasons given above, the evidence does not support this — a 14-vote discrepancy would still be insufficient to overcome Mr. Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.”
Second: The arbitrators rejected Erskine-Smith’s arguments about inconsistencies in how voters were ID’d, concluding the returning officer had broad discretion to decide what counted as acceptable identification — including electronic records and other non-traditional documents.
Erskine-Smith argued that Milton Chan’s involvement created a reasonable apprehension of bias because he was both a “known political opponent” — having managed Yasir Naqvi’s last leadership campaign — and a close friend of Tom Allison, Hafiz’s chief scrutineer. Chan managed the credentials desk at the nomination meeting.
The arbitrators weren’t persuaded. “There is no evidence” that Chan is a current “political opponent” of Erskine-Smith, the panel wrote, arguing that Chan’s involvement in a rival leadership campaign years prior did not mean he was trying to undermine Erskine-Smith in Scarborough Southwest.
They added: “[Chan] made eligibility determinations with which Mr. Hafiz’s campaign — and [Allison] specifically — disagreed, just as he made determinations with which Mr. Erskine-Smith’s camp disagreed. We see no fair basis on which to cast aspersions on this individual’s role in making eligibility determinations at the Scarborough Southwest nomination meeting… We pause here to note that, in any internal party contest, some of the individuals involved will inevitably have worked against and alongside one another on other campaigns over the years. It is not also surprising, let alone improper, for party officials at a nomination meeting to have friends, even close friends, involved in one or more of the nomination campaigns. The Ontario Liberal Party is a volunteer-driven organization and there are only so many of us who are willing and able to give of our time to support the party and its activities. One cannot remain involved in party politics over time unless one is willing and able to oppose one’s friends, or to rule against them, in internal party contests. Nothing about this is irregular or improper.”
On allegations of questionable conduct inside the voting room — including allegations that some voters were taking photos inside the voting room — the panel was equally dismissive, writing that none of it undermined confidence in the legitimacy of the result.
Of note: Arbitrators pointed repeatedly to the fact that many of the Erskine-Smith campaign’s concerns were only raised after the results were known, not during the meeting itself.
The big picture: At the heart of the ruling was a broader defence of volunteer-run nomination contests.
The panel leaned heavily on the Supreme Court’s Opitz ruling, which found that “imperfections” are inevitable — and that “courts cannot demand perfect certainty” in the conduct of elections. Applying that logic here, arbitrators argued the same standard should apply to party nominations, where the key test is whether the integrity of the process was ultimately maintained.
What the party is saying: In a statement, the Ontario Liberal Party said it will now “unite behind our candidate and work together to win this seat.” Added interim Liberal leader John Fraser: “Now that the arbitration committee dismissed this appeal, our focus is the voters of Scarborough Southwest. They have an important decision ahead, and we will work hard to earn their trust.”
Erskine-Smith did not respond to a request for comment.
— The House is in session.
Today: Second reading debate of Tom Rakocevic, Jessica Bell and Kristyn Wong-Tam’s Bill 113, the Fair Prices and Tax-Free Groceries Act. No word yet on the rest of this week’s business.
Also happening:
— Fundraising watch: At 5:30 p.m., the Tories are hosting a $1,500-a-ticket fundraiser in Toronto. RSVP.
At 6:30 p.m., Liberal leader John Fraser will speak at a $200-a-ticket event in Oakville. RSVP.
Tomorrow at 6 p.m., the Tories are hosting yet another $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser. RSVP.
On Saturday at 11:30 a.m., Dalton McGuinty will speak about his new book at a $75-a-ticket luncheon in Niagara Falls. RSVP.
— 🍴 On the lunch menu: Monday: Chicken souvlaki with potatoes and vegetables. Tuesday: Beef brisket with potatoes and vegetables. Wednesday: Sweet and sour pork with rice and vegetables. Thursday: Fish and chips. Friday: Smoked turkey pasta alla vodka with salad and garlic bread.
— City Hall’s open secret: The Star goes inside Toronto City Hall, where allegations of a “toxic” workplace culture drove a covert union drive. One aide “described being sexually harassed by a colleague, including extremely intimate and unwelcomed questions about their body parts — with no reprimand from the councillor once it was raised. This staffer said meanwhile they would often get ’disparaging’ personal feedback rather than constructive criticism about the work itself. They eventually took a leave of absence.”
Meanwhile: Olivia Chow is running for re-election. “There’s plenty of time to campaign in the fall,” she said. “I registered today to say one thing: to the people of Toronto, I am in your corner. I’ve always been and always will be.”
— Furious Ford: “Premier Doug Ford says a decision by an Ontario Superior Courtjustice that prevents the Region of Waterloo from clearing the encampment at 100 Victoria St. N. in Kitchener is ’the most ridiculous ruling I’ve ever seen.’”
— Blue who? The Ford government is going to court to stop the release of documents connected to the abandoned blue licence plates.
Meanwhile: “The Ontario Appeal Court has dismissed the government’s attempt to cancel an order telling civil servants to access Doug Ford’s personal call logs, reactivating a requirement for the premier to hand over his records.”
— Martin Regg Cohn writes on Speaker Donna Skelly: “Thanks to her previous career as a television newscaster, Skelly has a commanding voice and presence that exude authority. With her dulcet tones perfected on air, and the power of inflection, she needn’t raise her voice the way so many of her male predecessors did in frustration and futility.”
— Canadians are increasingly upbeat about the direction of the country, a new survey found.
— It’s a mutiny: One city is taking the Ford government to court over strong mayor powers, though John Michael McGrath argues it probably won’t work.
Stratford’s mayor is backing the court challenge, though he’s questioning the price tag and chances of success. “Do we spend taxpayers’ dollars on a process that we don’t know what the total cost will be?” he asked.
The government says extending these powers was the right call.
— The Kandavel probe: “Police investigators digging into allegations against Toronto councillor Parthi Kandavel have recently reached out to developers at a third property… The inquiry to developers at the third property was made in mid-May, after the police probe was made public.”
(It’s a sigh of relief for many Liberals: Before deciding on an open race, John Fraser had considered appointing one of several candidates in Scarborough Southwest — including Kandavel.)
— AI is already creeping into municipal politics.
A message from Alto:
— The Tories and Liberals are neck-and-neck, according to a new Liaison poll.
By the numbers: Both parties sit at 37 per cent — the second straight time the ruling party has failed to open up a lead — followed by the NDP at 20 per cent, ahead of the Greens at 4 per cent.
Just 28 per cent approve of the Premier’s performance, while 67 per cent disapprove. Nearly two-thirds — 64 per cent — believe Ontario is on the wrong track, versus 31 per cent who say it’s not.
The survey tested public opinion on kitchen-table issues. Just under two-thirds — 63 per cent — say it will be the primary factor driving how they vote in the next election.
Asked what has been hardest to manage in their household budgets, respondents pointed first to groceries at 38 per cent, with housing not far behind at 35 per cent. The numbers reveal a clear age gap: younger Ontarians are far more likely to cite housing costs, while older respondents are feeling the squeeze most at the grocery store.
Meanwhile: The Ford government’s cost-of-living policies are landing with a thud. Just six per cent of respondents said policies like gas tax cuts and tax credits have made a significant impact in their finances. Another 18 per cent reported a moderate impact, but nearly three-quarters — 74 per cent — said the measures have had only a minor impact or none at all.
The methodology: Conducted on May 15 and 16 via IVR, the survey polled 1,000 voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1 per cent.
— First: Daisy Wai says she is recovering at home following surgery.
“It was very successful,” the PC MPP, who is in “good spirits,” wrote Friday. “I am expecting a full recovery and will return to Queen’s Park soon. I look forward to continuing serving my constituents in Richmond Hill.”
She added: “I am thankful that Premier Ford and all caucus members are very supportive and encouraging.”
Meanwhile: Wai poured cold water on rumours that she’s preparing to step down, calling them “totally incorrect” and saying they have “no ground.”
(Wai hasn’t spoken in the House since April, when she was met with a long standing ovation from colleagues following her members’ statement. At least one PC MPP appeared visibly emotional.)
— Noted: Matt Rae is the Tories’ new caucus chair, taking over from Will Bouma.
— Noticed: Every NDP MPP is asking whether ministries spent any money connected to the private jet: “Would the _____________ confirm if they consented to and if any Ministry of _____________ funding contributed to the Ontario government’s purchase of a Bombardier 650 Challenger private jet.”
— We’re two: Some 150 of Ontario’s top political players gathered earlier this month to celebrate our second birthday and the launch of our new podcast, “The Insiders.”
Seen: Marit Stiles, Jordan Berger, Stephen Lecce, Doug Downey, Bonnie Crombie, Patrick Brown, Adil Shamji, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell, Vik Handa, Rob Cerjanec, Melody Kuo, Patrick Sackville, Christine Simundson, Steve Doherty, Nicolas Di Marco, Chelsea McGee, Justine Teplycky, Michel Figueredo, Jack Fazzari, Bianca Giacoboni, Dayna Smockum, Sydney Pothakos, Melanie Paradis, Erin Morrison, Ivanna Purkiss, Ben Purkiss, Holly Fullager, Sharan Kaur, Kyle Jacobs, Forrest Parlee, Lucas Meyer, Jad El Tal, Mayeesha Chowdhury, Christy Kheirallah, Marzian Alam, Kathryn McGarry, Darryn McArthur, Elizabeth Young, David Valentin, Joseph Angolano, Quito Maggi, Ferd Longo, A.J. Mawani, Laura Walton, Chris Cowley, René Jansen in de Wal, Kim Wright, Harneet Singh, Hasneet Singh Punia, Josh Matlow, Keerthana Rang, Marcel Weider, Charlie Pinkerton, Tina Yazdani, Kamil Karamali, Ginella Massa, Travis Dhanraj, Sarbjit Kaur, Karman Wong, Alan Hale, Dan Earle, Lorne Levy, Madalyn Calzvara, Nathaniel Arfin, Evan Sambasivam, Noah Parker, Gabe Blanc, Mahdis Habibina, Bahoz Dara Aziz, Eric Osborne, Supriya Dwivedi, Natalie Hart and more.
— In memoriam: Former Toronto councillor Howard Moscoe has died. He was 86.
— Aidan Thompson is out at the Liberal Services Caucus Bureau, joining Liberal MP Danielle Martin. (Thompson was communications director on Martin’s by-election campaign.)
Gabrielle Glasier is the new manager of stakeholder relations and major events.
— Olivia Akena has joined Texture Communications as a senior communications consultant.
Holly Fullager, who previously worked for Natural Resources Minister Mike Harris Jr., is now a director at Texture.
— Vickramjeet Aujla, Raymond Caputo, Asher Fishman, Peter Horgan and Anya Kortenaar have been appointed to the Ontario Court of Justice. Herb Kreling has been appointed regional senior justice of the peace for the East.
— Camillo Cipriano is the new CEO of the Toronto District School Board.
— Sarah McQuarrie is joining the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario as chief strategy officer.
— Jason Rowe, Stacey Rowe and Tom Cardinal have resigned from the Carpenters’ Regional Council.
Zooming out: The United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America is investigating the union over the purchase of two high-value properties near Toronto, including one occupied by Rowe and his wife.
— Over at the Ontario Federation of Labour, an independent workplace investigation into Laura Walton found that none of the complaints against her amounted to “breaches of the Collective Agreement, the Occupational Health and Safety Act, or the Ontario Human Rights Code.”
— Robin Jones will not seek re-election as Westport Village’s mayor. Jones is the president of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario.
Over in Mississauga: Michelle Baker will run in Ward 2, now represented by Alvin Tedjo. Baker is the executive director of Ontario’s Big City Mayors and a former chief to then-Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie.
— Noted: Stephen Lecce and Melissa Lantsman are the co-chairs of Steven Del Duca’s re-election campaign in Vaughan.
Zi-Ann Lum of POLITICO and Jeremy Borg of Western Standard have joined the Legislative Press Gallery.
— The subject line on Lee Fairclough’s latest email to supporters: “While others whine, Lee wins.”
Overheard: Some on Fairclough’s team have been making calls to Erskine-Smith supporters.
— Noted: A controversial freeze on freedom of information requests has been reversed.
Meet the “Section 31 Liberals,” a faction urging the party to bar temporary residents from voting in nomination and leadership contests.
The Home Depot is the latest to join Ontario Corps.
— Seen: Beehives on the roof of Queen’s Park.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Did David Zimmer and co. make the right call on Scarborough Southwest? Will the House rise early? Hit me up — anonymity guaranteed, just like the sources you’re wondering about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
Got 5+ on your team? Team subscriptions are available. Got a client with a message to reach the province’s most powerful players? Ask for our ad rates. Reach out.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now.
Nate Erskine-Smith has lost his appeal of the Scarborough Southwest nomination contest. A PC MPP is recovering from surgery, but says she’s not going anywhere. The NDP is turning up the heat in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Plus, a Monday surprise at the cabinet table. But to start:
Seen: He’s in! Navdeep Bains is entering the Liberal leadership contest. He posted a teaser video to X earlier today, and his campaign website is already live.
Who’s who: Jamie Kippen will run Bains’ campaign. We’re told Bains has racked up endorsements from Arielle Kayabaga, Jenna Sudds, Karina Gould, Omar Alghabra and Mark Holland. Yasir Naqvi, who placed third in the 2023 leadership contest, is also endorsing the ex-Trudeau minister.
Meanwhile: Rob Cerjanec is expected to formally enter the leadership race as early as Wednesday, we’re told.
Mulroney’s out — The President of the Treasury Board is leaving provincial politics.
What she’s saying: “Two years ago, I lost my father. Last year, my husband Andrew and I became empty nesters. These are the kinds of moments that clarify what matters,” Caroline Mulroney wrote in a three-page statement. “Together, they have led me to the conclusion that now is the right time to step back from elected life and begin a new chapter, one I am genuinely excited about.”
To Doug Ford, she added: “It has been an honour to serve in your cabinet... Thank you for your trust, your friendship and your unwavering commitment to this province.”
What he’s saying: The Premier — expected to pair a York-Simcoe by-election with Scarborough Southwest this summer — praised his “close personal friend,” saying her record is one “she can be immensely proud of.”
Added Ford: “Politics is in Caroline’s blood. The Ontario PC Party and our conservative movement will no doubt continue to benefit from her ideas and ideals.”
Behind the scenes: While Mulroney informed Ford on Sunday, much of cabinet was caught by surprise Monday morning when they learned of her sudden departure. But others say Mulroney’s decision — as a mother of four university-aged children — was easy to understand: “They’ve always been a huge concern for her,” one source said. “I think she wants more personal time than the job allows.”
That said: Eight years is a long stretch in politics — and by this point in any government, it’s natural that some of the oldest soldiers begin to ask themselves whether it’s time to leave public life.
But like Monte McNaughton and Rod Phillips before her, time away for Mulroney — long mentioned as a possible successor to Ford — would help separate her from the wear-and-tear of an aging government in a future leadership contest.
Everyone’s favourite s-word: Peter Bethlenfalvy and Natalia Kusendova-Bashta will take over Treasury Board and Francophone Affairs, respectively, but Ford will eventually need to name Mulroney’s permanent successor. It could all be part of a wider front-bench reboot, expected as early as June.
Already: We’re hearing at least two more cabinet ministers could soon follow Mulroney out. For one: As we’ve previously reported, Neil Lumsden — who despite a government spokesperson insisting otherwise — is said to be weighing retirement, and the NDP is already aggressively canvassing Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
Said one source: “I would assume cabinet has been told to express interest in leaving now, or forever hold their peace.”
But keep in mind: As every minister will tell you, the intricacies of any cabinet reboot — the who and the when — are typically finalized at the last minute and known only to Ford and his chief. But don’t kid yourself: around the cabinet table, everyone’s already quietly gaming out their chances.
A message from Alto:
SCOOP — “The appeal is dismissed:” A three-member arbitration panel has tossed Nate Erskine-Smith’s appeal, declaring that Ahsanul Hafiz was the “true winner” of the nomination contest in Scarborough Southwest.
For background: Erskine-Smith’s claim of “serious irregularities,” ranging from unaccounted-for ballots to inconsistent ID enforcement and questionable behaviour inside the voting room, had detonated a full-blown civil war in Liberal land.
But in a 17-page decision released late Sunday, the panel — including David Zimmer, Jennifer Norman and Adam Goldberg — rejected the appeal outright. They wrote: “Having carefully considered all of the evidence, we find that there were no irregularities in the conduct of the nomination meeting that affected the result of the vote or that call the meeting’s integrity into question.”
The big picture: It’s a devastating blow to Erskine-Smith, with the panel rejecting virtually every major allegation he made— including concerns about 34 “unaccounted-for ballots.” Instead, the panel concluded the discrepancy stemmed from what it called a “record-keeping error,” not evidence that ineligible voters cast ballots.
What they found: While 1,523 ballots were counted, only 1,489 names had initially been crossed off the voters list. But upon reviewing credentials forms, the returning officer identified 20 eligible voters whose names had simply not been marked off the list. That reduced the discrepancy to 14 votes — just under Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.
They concluded: “Even if there were evidence that 14 individuals voted at the meeting who had not been deemed eligible to vote — and, for the reasons given above, the evidence does not support this — a 14-vote discrepancy would still be insufficient to overcome Mr. Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.”
Second: The arbitrators rejected Erskine-Smith’s arguments about inconsistencies in how voters were ID’d, concluding the returning officer had broad discretion to decide what counted as acceptable identification — including electronic records and other non-traditional documents.
Erskine-Smith argued that Milton Chan’s involvement created a reasonable apprehension of bias because he was both a “known political opponent” — having managed Yasir Naqvi’s last leadership campaign — and a close friend of Tom Allison, Hafiz’s chief scrutineer. Chan managed the credentials desk at the nomination meeting.
The arbitrators weren’t persuaded. “There is no evidence” that Chan is a current “political opponent” of Erskine-Smith, the panel wrote, arguing that Chan’s involvement in a rival leadership campaign years prior did not mean he was trying to undermine Erskine-Smith in Scarborough Southwest.
They added: “[Chan] made eligibility determinations with which Mr. Hafiz’s campaign — and [Allison] specifically — disagreed, just as he made determinations with which Mr. Erskine-Smith’s camp disagreed. We see no fair basis on which to cast aspersions on this individual’s role in making eligibility determinations at the Scarborough Southwest nomination meeting… We pause here to note that, in any internal party contest, some of the individuals involved will inevitably have worked against and alongside one another on other campaigns over the years. It is not also surprising, let alone improper, for party officials at a nomination meeting to have friends, even close friends, involved in one or more of the nomination campaigns. The Ontario Liberal Party is a volunteer-driven organization and there are only so many of us who are willing and able to give of our time to support the party and its activities. One cannot remain involved in party politics over time unless one is willing and able to oppose one’s friends, or to rule against them, in internal party contests. Nothing about this is irregular or improper.”
On allegations of questionable conduct inside the voting room — including allegations that some voters were taking photos inside the voting room — the panel was equally dismissive, writing that none of it undermined confidence in the legitimacy of the result.
Of note: Arbitrators pointed repeatedly to the fact that many of the Erskine-Smith campaign’s concerns were only raised after the results were known, not during the meeting itself.
The big picture: At the heart of the ruling was a broader defence of volunteer-run nomination contests.
The panel leaned heavily on the Supreme Court’s Opitz ruling, which found that “imperfections” are inevitable — and that “courts cannot demand perfect certainty” in the conduct of elections. Applying that logic here, arbitrators argued the same standard should apply to party nominations, where the key test is whether the integrity of the process was ultimately maintained.
What the party is saying: In a statement, the Ontario Liberal Party said it will now “unite behind our candidate and work together to win this seat.” Added interim Liberal leader John Fraser: “Now that the arbitration committee dismissed this appeal, our focus is the voters of Scarborough Southwest. They have an important decision ahead, and we will work hard to earn their trust.”
Erskine-Smith did not respond to a request for comment.
— The House is in session.
Today: Second reading debate of Tom Rakocevic, Jessica Bell and Kristyn Wong-Tam’s Bill 113, the Fair Prices and Tax-Free Groceries Act. No word yet on the rest of this week’s business.
Also happening:
— Fundraising watch: At 5:30 p.m., the Tories are hosting a $1,500-a-ticket fundraiser in Toronto. RSVP.
At 6:30 p.m., Liberal leader John Fraser will speak at a $200-a-ticket event in Oakville. RSVP.
Tomorrow at 6 p.m., the Tories are hosting yet another $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser. RSVP.
On Saturday at 11:30 a.m., Dalton McGuinty will speak about his new book at a $75-a-ticket luncheon in Niagara Falls. RSVP.
— 🍴 On the lunch menu: Monday: Chicken souvlaki with potatoes and vegetables. Tuesday: Beef brisket with potatoes and vegetables. Wednesday: Sweet and sour pork with rice and vegetables. Thursday: Fish and chips. Friday: Smoked turkey pasta alla vodka with salad and garlic bread.
— City Hall’s open secret: The Star goes inside Toronto City Hall, where allegations of a “toxic” workplace culture drove a covert union drive. One aide “described being sexually harassed by a colleague, including extremely intimate and unwelcomed questions about their body parts — with no reprimand from the councillor once it was raised. This staffer said meanwhile they would often get ’disparaging’ personal feedback rather than constructive criticism about the work itself. They eventually took a leave of absence.”
Meanwhile: Olivia Chow is running for re-election. “There’s plenty of time to campaign in the fall,” she said. “I registered today to say one thing: to the people of Toronto, I am in your corner. I’ve always been and always will be.”
— Furious Ford: “Premier Doug Ford says a decision by an Ontario Superior Courtjustice that prevents the Region of Waterloo from clearing the encampment at 100 Victoria St. N. in Kitchener is ’the most ridiculous ruling I’ve ever seen.’”
— Blue who? The Ford government is going to court to stop the release of documents connected to the abandoned blue licence plates.
Meanwhile: “The Ontario Appeal Court has dismissed the government’s attempt to cancel an order telling civil servants to access Doug Ford’s personal call logs, reactivating a requirement for the premier to hand over his records.”
— Martin Regg Cohn writes on Speaker Donna Skelly: “Thanks to her previous career as a television newscaster, Skelly has a commanding voice and presence that exude authority. With her dulcet tones perfected on air, and the power of inflection, she needn’t raise her voice the way so many of her male predecessors did in frustration and futility.”
— Canadians are increasingly upbeat about the direction of the country, a new survey found.
— It’s a mutiny: One city is taking the Ford government to court over strong mayor powers, though John Michael McGrath argues it probably won’t work.
Stratford’s mayor is backing the court challenge, though he’s questioning the price tag and chances of success. “Do we spend taxpayers’ dollars on a process that we don’t know what the total cost will be?” he asked.
The government says extending these powers was the right call.
— The Kandavel probe: “Police investigators digging into allegations against Toronto councillor Parthi Kandavel have recently reached out to developers at a third property… The inquiry to developers at the third property was made in mid-May, after the police probe was made public.”
(It’s a sigh of relief for many Liberals: Before deciding on an open race, John Fraser had considered appointing one of several candidates in Scarborough Southwest — including Kandavel.)
— AI is already creeping into municipal politics.
A message from Alto:
— The Tories and Liberals are neck-and-neck, according to a new Liaison poll.
By the numbers: Both parties sit at 37 per cent — the second straight time the ruling party has failed to open up a lead — followed by the NDP at 20 per cent, ahead of the Greens at 4 per cent.
Just 28 per cent approve of the Premier’s performance, while 67 per cent disapprove. Nearly two-thirds — 64 per cent — believe Ontario is on the wrong track, versus 31 per cent who say it’s not.
The survey tested public opinion on kitchen-table issues. Just under two-thirds — 63 per cent — say it will be the primary factor driving how they vote in the next election.
Asked what has been hardest to manage in their household budgets, respondents pointed first to groceries at 38 per cent, with housing not far behind at 35 per cent. The numbers reveal a clear age gap: younger Ontarians are far more likely to cite housing costs, while older respondents are feeling the squeeze most at the grocery store.
Meanwhile: The Ford government’s cost-of-living policies are landing with a thud. Just six per cent of respondents said policies like gas tax cuts and tax credits have made a significant impact in their finances. Another 18 per cent reported a moderate impact, but nearly three-quarters — 74 per cent — said the measures have had only a minor impact or none at all.
The methodology: Conducted on May 15 and 16 via IVR, the survey polled 1,000 voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1 per cent.
— First: Daisy Wai says she is recovering at home following surgery.
“It was very successful,” the PC MPP, who is in “good spirits,” wrote Friday. “I am expecting a full recovery and will return to Queen’s Park soon. I look forward to continuing serving my constituents in Richmond Hill.”
She added: “I am thankful that Premier Ford and all caucus members are very supportive and encouraging.”
Meanwhile: Wai poured cold water on rumours that she’s preparing to step down, calling them “totally incorrect” and saying they have “no ground.”
(Wai hasn’t spoken in the House since April, when she was met with a long standing ovation from colleagues following her members’ statement. At least one PC MPP appeared visibly emotional.)
— Noted: Matt Rae is the Tories’ new caucus chair, taking over from Will Bouma.
— Noticed: Every NDP MPP is asking whether ministries spent any money connected to the private jet: “Would the _____________ confirm if they consented to and if any Ministry of _____________ funding contributed to the Ontario government’s purchase of a Bombardier 650 Challenger private jet.”
— We’re two: Some 150 of Ontario’s top political players gathered earlier this month to celebrate our second birthday and the launch of our new podcast, “The Insiders.”
Seen: Marit Stiles, Jordan Berger, Stephen Lecce, Doug Downey, Bonnie Crombie, Patrick Brown, Adil Shamji, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell, Vik Handa, Rob Cerjanec, Melody Kuo, Patrick Sackville, Christine Simundson, Steve Doherty, Nicolas Di Marco, Chelsea McGee, Justine Teplycky, Michel Figueredo, Jack Fazzari, Bianca Giacoboni, Dayna Smockum, Sydney Pothakos, Melanie Paradis, Erin Morrison, Ivanna Purkiss, Ben Purkiss, Holly Fullager, Sharan Kaur, Kyle Jacobs, Forrest Parlee, Lucas Meyer, Jad El Tal, Mayeesha Chowdhury, Christy Kheirallah, Marzian Alam, Kathryn McGarry, Darryn McArthur, Elizabeth Young, David Valentin, Joseph Angolano, Quito Maggi, Ferd Longo, A.J. Mawani, Laura Walton, Chris Cowley, René Jansen in de Wal, Kim Wright, Harneet Singh, Hasneet Singh Punia, Josh Matlow, Keerthana Rang, Marcel Weider, Charlie Pinkerton, Tina Yazdani, Kamil Karamali, Ginella Massa, Travis Dhanraj, Sarbjit Kaur, Karman Wong, Alan Hale, Dan Earle, Lorne Levy, Madalyn Calzvara, Nathaniel Arfin, Evan Sambasivam, Noah Parker, Gabe Blanc, Mahdis Habibina, Bahoz Dara Aziz, Eric Osborne, Supriya Dwivedi, Natalie Hart and more.
— In memoriam: Former Toronto councillor Howard Moscoe has died. He was 86.
— Aidan Thompson is out at the Liberal Services Caucus Bureau, joining Liberal MP Danielle Martin. (Thompson was communications director on Martin’s by-election campaign.)
Gabrielle Glasier is the new manager of stakeholder relations and major events.
— Olivia Akena has joined Texture Communications as a senior communications consultant.
Holly Fullager, who previously worked for Natural Resources Minister Mike Harris Jr., is now a director at Texture.
— Vickramjeet Aujla, Raymond Caputo, Asher Fishman, Peter Horgan and Anya Kortenaar have been appointed to the Ontario Court of Justice. Herb Kreling has been appointed regional senior justice of the peace for the East.
— Camillo Cipriano is the new CEO of the Toronto District School Board.
— Sarah McQuarrie is joining the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario as chief strategy officer.
— Jason Rowe, Stacey Rowe and Tom Cardinal have resigned from the Carpenters’ Regional Council.
Zooming out: The United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America is investigating the union over the purchase of two high-value properties near Toronto, including one occupied by Rowe and his wife.
— Over at the Ontario Federation of Labour, an independent workplace investigation into Laura Walton found that none of the complaints against her amounted to “breaches of the Collective Agreement, the Occupational Health and Safety Act, or the Ontario Human Rights Code.”
— Robin Jones will not seek re-election as Westport Village’s mayor. Jones is the president of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario.
Over in Mississauga: Michelle Baker will run in Ward 2, now represented by Alvin Tedjo. Baker is the executive director of Ontario’s Big City Mayors and a former chief to then-Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie.
— Noted: Stephen Lecce and Melissa Lantsman are the co-chairs of Steven Del Duca’s re-election campaign in Vaughan.
Zi-Ann Lum of POLITICO and Jeremy Borg of Western Standard have joined the Legislative Press Gallery.
— The subject line on Lee Fairclough’s latest email to supporters: “While others whine, Lee wins.”
Overheard: Some on Fairclough’s team have been making calls to Erskine-Smith supporters.
— Noted: A controversial freeze on freedom of information requests has been reversed.
Meet the “Section 31 Liberals,” a faction urging the party to bar temporary residents from voting in nomination and leadership contests.
The Home Depot is the latest to join Ontario Corps.
— Seen: Beehives on the roof of Queen’s Park.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Did David Zimmer and co. make the right call on Scarborough Southwest? Will the House rise early? Hit me up — anonymity guaranteed, just like the sources you’re wondering about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
Got 5+ on your team? Team subscriptions are available. Got a client with a message to reach the province’s most powerful players? Ask for our ad rates. Reach out.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now.
Nate Erskine-Smith has lost his appeal of the Scarborough Southwest nomination contest. A PC MPP is recovering from surgery, but says she’s not going anywhere. The NDP is turning up the heat in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Plus, a Monday surprise at the cabinet table. But to start:
Seen: He’s in! Navdeep Bains is entering the Liberal leadership contest. He posted a teaser video to X earlier today, and his campaign website is already live.
Who’s who: Jamie Kippen will run Bains’ campaign. We’re told Bains has racked up endorsements from Arielle Kayabaga, Jenna Sudds, Karina Gould, Omar Alghabra and Mark Holland. Yasir Naqvi, who placed third in the 2023 leadership contest, is also endorsing the ex-Trudeau minister.
Meanwhile: Rob Cerjanec is expected to formally enter the leadership race as early as Wednesday, we’re told.
Mulroney’s out — The President of the Treasury Board is leaving provincial politics.
What she’s saying: “Two years ago, I lost my father. Last year, my husband Andrew and I became empty nesters. These are the kinds of moments that clarify what matters,” Caroline Mulroney wrote in a three-page statement. “Together, they have led me to the conclusion that now is the right time to step back from elected life and begin a new chapter, one I am genuinely excited about.”
To Doug Ford, she added: “It has been an honour to serve in your cabinet... Thank you for your trust, your friendship and your unwavering commitment to this province.”
What he’s saying: The Premier — expected to pair a York-Simcoe by-election with Scarborough Southwest this summer — praised his “close personal friend,” saying her record is one “she can be immensely proud of.”
Added Ford: “Politics is in Caroline’s blood. The Ontario PC Party and our conservative movement will no doubt continue to benefit from her ideas and ideals.”
Behind the scenes: While Mulroney informed Ford on Sunday, much of cabinet was caught by surprise Monday morning when they learned of her sudden departure. But others say Mulroney’s decision — as a mother of four university-aged children — was easy to understand: “They’ve always been a huge concern for her,” one source said. “I think she wants more personal time than the job allows.”
That said: Eight years is a long stretch in politics — and by this point in any government, it’s natural that some of the oldest soldiers begin to ask themselves whether it’s time to leave public life.
But like Monte McNaughton and Rod Phillips before her, time away for Mulroney — long mentioned as a possible successor to Ford — would help separate her from the wear-and-tear of an aging government in a future leadership contest.
Everyone’s favourite s-word: Peter Bethlenfalvy and Natalia Kusendova-Bashta will take over Treasury Board and Francophone Affairs, respectively, but Ford will eventually need to name Mulroney’s permanent successor. It could all be part of a wider front-bench reboot, expected as early as June.
Already: We’re hearing at least two more cabinet ministers could soon follow Mulroney out. For one: As we’ve previously reported, Neil Lumsden — who despite a government spokesperson insisting otherwise — is said to be weighing retirement, and the NDP is already aggressively canvassing Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
Said one source: “I would assume cabinet has been told to express interest in leaving now, or forever hold their peace.”
But keep in mind: As every minister will tell you, the intricacies of any cabinet reboot — the who and the when — are typically finalized at the last minute and known only to Ford and his chief. But don’t kid yourself: around the cabinet table, everyone’s already quietly gaming out their chances.
A message from Alto:
SCOOP — “The appeal is dismissed:” A three-member arbitration panel has tossed Nate Erskine-Smith’s appeal, declaring that Ahsanul Hafiz was the “true winner” of the nomination contest in Scarborough Southwest.
For background: Erskine-Smith’s claim of “serious irregularities,” ranging from unaccounted-for ballots to inconsistent ID enforcement and questionable behaviour inside the voting room, had detonated a full-blown civil war in Liberal land.
But in a 17-page decision released late Sunday, the panel — including David Zimmer, Jennifer Norman and Adam Goldberg — rejected the appeal outright. They wrote: “Having carefully considered all of the evidence, we find that there were no irregularities in the conduct of the nomination meeting that affected the result of the vote or that call the meeting’s integrity into question.”
The big picture: It’s a devastating blow to Erskine-Smith, with the panel rejecting virtually every major allegation he made— including concerns about 34 “unaccounted-for ballots.” Instead, the panel concluded the discrepancy stemmed from what it called a “record-keeping error,” not evidence that ineligible voters cast ballots.
What they found: While 1,523 ballots were counted, only 1,489 names had initially been crossed off the voters list. But upon reviewing credentials forms, the returning officer identified 20 eligible voters whose names had simply not been marked off the list. That reduced the discrepancy to 14 votes — just under Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.
They concluded: “Even if there were evidence that 14 individuals voted at the meeting who had not been deemed eligible to vote — and, for the reasons given above, the evidence does not support this — a 14-vote discrepancy would still be insufficient to overcome Mr. Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.”
Second: The arbitrators rejected Erskine-Smith’s arguments about inconsistencies in how voters were ID’d, concluding the returning officer had broad discretion to decide what counted as acceptable identification — including electronic records and other non-traditional documents.
Erskine-Smith argued that Milton Chan’s involvement created a reasonable apprehension of bias because he was both a “known political opponent” — having managed Yasir Naqvi’s last leadership campaign — and a close friend of Tom Allison, Hafiz’s chief scrutineer. Chan managed the credentials desk at the nomination meeting.
The arbitrators weren’t persuaded. “There is no evidence” that Chan is a current “political opponent” of Erskine-Smith, the panel wrote, arguing that Chan’s involvement in a rival leadership campaign years prior did not mean he was trying to undermine Erskine-Smith in Scarborough Southwest.
They added: “[Chan] made eligibility determinations with which Mr. Hafiz’s campaign — and [Allison] specifically — disagreed, just as he made determinations with which Mr. Erskine-Smith’s camp disagreed. We see no fair basis on which to cast aspersions on this individual’s role in making eligibility determinations at the Scarborough Southwest nomination meeting… We pause here to note that, in any internal party contest, some of the individuals involved will inevitably have worked against and alongside one another on other campaigns over the years. It is not also surprising, let alone improper, for party officials at a nomination meeting to have friends, even close friends, involved in one or more of the nomination campaigns. The Ontario Liberal Party is a volunteer-driven organization and there are only so many of us who are willing and able to give of our time to support the party and its activities. One cannot remain involved in party politics over time unless one is willing and able to oppose one’s friends, or to rule against them, in internal party contests. Nothing about this is irregular or improper.”
On allegations of questionable conduct inside the voting room — including allegations that some voters were taking photos inside the voting room — the panel was equally dismissive, writing that none of it undermined confidence in the legitimacy of the result.
Of note: Arbitrators pointed repeatedly to the fact that many of the Erskine-Smith campaign’s concerns were only raised after the results were known, not during the meeting itself.
The big picture: At the heart of the ruling was a broader defence of volunteer-run nomination contests.
The panel leaned heavily on the Supreme Court’s Opitz ruling, which found that “imperfections” are inevitable — and that “courts cannot demand perfect certainty” in the conduct of elections. Applying that logic here, arbitrators argued the same standard should apply to party nominations, where the key test is whether the integrity of the process was ultimately maintained.
What the party is saying: In a statement, the Ontario Liberal Party said it will now “unite behind our candidate and work together to win this seat.” Added interim Liberal leader John Fraser: “Now that the arbitration committee dismissed this appeal, our focus is the voters of Scarborough Southwest. They have an important decision ahead, and we will work hard to earn their trust.”
Erskine-Smith did not respond to a request for comment.
— The House is in session.
Today: Second reading debate of Tom Rakocevic, Jessica Bell and Kristyn Wong-Tam’s Bill 113, the Fair Prices and Tax-Free Groceries Act. No word yet on the rest of this week’s business.
Also happening:
— Fundraising watch: At 5:30 p.m., the Tories are hosting a $1,500-a-ticket fundraiser in Toronto. RSVP.
At 6:30 p.m., Liberal leader John Fraser will speak at a $200-a-ticket event in Oakville. RSVP.
Tomorrow at 6 p.m., the Tories are hosting yet another $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser. RSVP.
On Saturday at 11:30 a.m., Dalton McGuinty will speak about his new book at a $75-a-ticket luncheon in Niagara Falls. RSVP.
— 🍴 On the lunch menu: Monday: Chicken souvlaki with potatoes and vegetables. Tuesday: Beef brisket with potatoes and vegetables. Wednesday: Sweet and sour pork with rice and vegetables. Thursday: Fish and chips. Friday: Smoked turkey pasta alla vodka with salad and garlic bread.
— City Hall’s open secret: The Star goes inside Toronto City Hall, where allegations of a “toxic” workplace culture drove a covert union drive. One aide “described being sexually harassed by a colleague, including extremely intimate and unwelcomed questions about their body parts — with no reprimand from the councillor once it was raised. This staffer said meanwhile they would often get ’disparaging’ personal feedback rather than constructive criticism about the work itself. They eventually took a leave of absence.”
Meanwhile: Olivia Chow is running for re-election. “There’s plenty of time to campaign in the fall,” she said. “I registered today to say one thing: to the people of Toronto, I am in your corner. I’ve always been and always will be.”
— Furious Ford: “Premier Doug Ford says a decision by an Ontario Superior Courtjustice that prevents the Region of Waterloo from clearing the encampment at 100 Victoria St. N. in Kitchener is ’the most ridiculous ruling I’ve ever seen.’”
— Blue who? The Ford government is going to court to stop the release of documents connected to the abandoned blue licence plates.
Meanwhile: “The Ontario Appeal Court has dismissed the government’s attempt to cancel an order telling civil servants to access Doug Ford’s personal call logs, reactivating a requirement for the premier to hand over his records.”
— Martin Regg Cohn writes on Speaker Donna Skelly: “Thanks to her previous career as a television newscaster, Skelly has a commanding voice and presence that exude authority. With her dulcet tones perfected on air, and the power of inflection, she needn’t raise her voice the way so many of her male predecessors did in frustration and futility.”
— Canadians are increasingly upbeat about the direction of the country, a new survey found.
— It’s a mutiny: One city is taking the Ford government to court over strong mayor powers, though John Michael McGrath argues it probably won’t work.
Stratford’s mayor is backing the court challenge, though he’s questioning the price tag and chances of success. “Do we spend taxpayers’ dollars on a process that we don’t know what the total cost will be?” he asked.
The government says extending these powers was the right call.
— The Kandavel probe: “Police investigators digging into allegations against Toronto councillor Parthi Kandavel have recently reached out to developers at a third property… The inquiry to developers at the third property was made in mid-May, after the police probe was made public.”
(It’s a sigh of relief for many Liberals: Before deciding on an open race, John Fraser had considered appointing one of several candidates in Scarborough Southwest — including Kandavel.)
— AI is already creeping into municipal politics.
A message from Alto:
— The Tories and Liberals are neck-and-neck, according to a new Liaison poll.
By the numbers: Both parties sit at 37 per cent — the second straight time the ruling party has failed to open up a lead — followed by the NDP at 20 per cent, ahead of the Greens at 4 per cent.
Just 28 per cent approve of the Premier’s performance, while 67 per cent disapprove. Nearly two-thirds — 64 per cent — believe Ontario is on the wrong track, versus 31 per cent who say it’s not.
The survey tested public opinion on kitchen-table issues. Just under two-thirds — 63 per cent — say it will be the primary factor driving how they vote in the next election.
Asked what has been hardest to manage in their household budgets, respondents pointed first to groceries at 38 per cent, with housing not far behind at 35 per cent. The numbers reveal a clear age gap: younger Ontarians are far more likely to cite housing costs, while older respondents are feeling the squeeze most at the grocery store.
Meanwhile: The Ford government’s cost-of-living policies are landing with a thud. Just six per cent of respondents said policies like gas tax cuts and tax credits have made a significant impact in their finances. Another 18 per cent reported a moderate impact, but nearly three-quarters — 74 per cent — said the measures have had only a minor impact or none at all.
The methodology: Conducted on May 15 and 16 via IVR, the survey polled 1,000 voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1 per cent.
— First: Daisy Wai says she is recovering at home following surgery.
“It was very successful,” the PC MPP, who is in “good spirits,” wrote Friday. “I am expecting a full recovery and will return to Queen’s Park soon. I look forward to continuing serving my constituents in Richmond Hill.”
She added: “I am thankful that Premier Ford and all caucus members are very supportive and encouraging.”
Meanwhile: Wai poured cold water on rumours that she’s preparing to step down, calling them “totally incorrect” and saying they have “no ground.”
(Wai hasn’t spoken in the House since April, when she was met with a long standing ovation from colleagues following her members’ statement. At least one PC MPP appeared visibly emotional.)
— Noted: Matt Rae is the Tories’ new caucus chair, taking over from Will Bouma.
— Noticed: Every NDP MPP is asking whether ministries spent any money connected to the private jet: “Would the _____________ confirm if they consented to and if any Ministry of _____________ funding contributed to the Ontario government’s purchase of a Bombardier 650 Challenger private jet.”
— We’re two: Some 150 of Ontario’s top political players gathered earlier this month to celebrate our second birthday and the launch of our new podcast, “The Insiders.”
Seen: Marit Stiles, Jordan Berger, Stephen Lecce, Doug Downey, Bonnie Crombie, Patrick Brown, Adil Shamji, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell, Vik Handa, Rob Cerjanec, Melody Kuo, Patrick Sackville, Christine Simundson, Steve Doherty, Nicolas Di Marco, Chelsea McGee, Justine Teplycky, Michel Figueredo, Jack Fazzari, Bianca Giacoboni, Dayna Smockum, Sydney Pothakos, Melanie Paradis, Erin Morrison, Ivanna Purkiss, Ben Purkiss, Holly Fullager, Sharan Kaur, Kyle Jacobs, Forrest Parlee, Lucas Meyer, Jad El Tal, Mayeesha Chowdhury, Christy Kheirallah, Marzian Alam, Kathryn McGarry, Darryn McArthur, Elizabeth Young, David Valentin, Joseph Angolano, Quito Maggi, Ferd Longo, A.J. Mawani, Laura Walton, Chris Cowley, René Jansen in de Wal, Kim Wright, Harneet Singh, Hasneet Singh Punia, Josh Matlow, Keerthana Rang, Marcel Weider, Charlie Pinkerton, Tina Yazdani, Kamil Karamali, Ginella Massa, Travis Dhanraj, Sarbjit Kaur, Karman Wong, Alan Hale, Dan Earle, Lorne Levy, Madalyn Calzvara, Nathaniel Arfin, Evan Sambasivam, Noah Parker, Gabe Blanc, Mahdis Habibina, Bahoz Dara Aziz, Eric Osborne, Supriya Dwivedi, Natalie Hart and more.
— In memoriam: Former Toronto councillor Howard Moscoe has died. He was 86.
— Aidan Thompson is out at the Liberal Services Caucus Bureau, joining Liberal MP Danielle Martin. (Thompson was communications director on Martin’s by-election campaign.)
Gabrielle Glasier is the new manager of stakeholder relations and major events.
— Olivia Akena has joined Texture Communications as a senior communications consultant.
Holly Fullager, who previously worked for Natural Resources Minister Mike Harris Jr., is now a director at Texture.
— Vickramjeet Aujla, Raymond Caputo, Asher Fishman, Peter Horgan and Anya Kortenaar have been appointed to the Ontario Court of Justice. Herb Kreling has been appointed regional senior justice of the peace for the East.
— Camillo Cipriano is the new CEO of the Toronto District School Board.
— Sarah McQuarrie is joining the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario as chief strategy officer.
— Jason Rowe, Stacey Rowe and Tom Cardinal have resigned from the Carpenters’ Regional Council.
Zooming out: The United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America is investigating the union over the purchase of two high-value properties near Toronto, including one occupied by Rowe and his wife.
— Over at the Ontario Federation of Labour, an independent workplace investigation into Laura Walton found that none of the complaints against her amounted to “breaches of the Collective Agreement, the Occupational Health and Safety Act, or the Ontario Human Rights Code.”
— Robin Jones will not seek re-election as Westport Village’s mayor. Jones is the president of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario.
Over in Mississauga: Michelle Baker will run in Ward 2, now represented by Alvin Tedjo. Baker is the executive director of Ontario’s Big City Mayors and a former chief to then-Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie.
— Noted: Stephen Lecce and Melissa Lantsman are the co-chairs of Steven Del Duca’s re-election campaign in Vaughan.
Zi-Ann Lum of POLITICO and Jeremy Borg of Western Standard have joined the Legislative Press Gallery.
— The subject line on Lee Fairclough’s latest email to supporters: “While others whine, Lee wins.”
Overheard: Some on Fairclough’s team have been making calls to Erskine-Smith supporters.
— Noted: A controversial freeze on freedom of information requests has been reversed.
Meet the “Section 31 Liberals,” a faction urging the party to bar temporary residents from voting in nomination and leadership contests.
The Home Depot is the latest to join Ontario Corps.
— Seen: Beehives on the roof of Queen’s Park.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Did David Zimmer and co. make the right call on Scarborough Southwest? Will the House rise early? Hit me up — anonymity guaranteed, just like the sources you’re wondering about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
Got 5+ on your team? Team subscriptions are available. Got a client with a message to reach the province’s most powerful players? Ask for our ad rates. Reach out.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now.
Nate Erskine-Smith has lost his appeal of the Scarborough Southwest nomination contest. A PC MPP is recovering from surgery, but says she’s not going anywhere. The NDP is turning up the heat in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Plus, a Monday surprise at the cabinet table. But to start:
Seen: He’s in! Navdeep Bains is entering the Liberal leadership contest. He posted a teaser video to X earlier today, and his campaign website is already live.
Who’s who: Jamie Kippen will run Bains’ campaign. We’re told Bains has racked up endorsements from Arielle Kayabaga, Jenna Sudds, Karina Gould, Omar Alghabra and Mark Holland. Yasir Naqvi, who placed third in the 2023 leadership contest, is also endorsing the ex-Trudeau minister.
Meanwhile: Rob Cerjanec is expected to formally enter the leadership race as early as Wednesday, we’re told.
Mulroney’s out — The President of the Treasury Board is leaving provincial politics.
What she’s saying: “Two years ago, I lost my father. Last year, my husband Andrew and I became empty nesters. These are the kinds of moments that clarify what matters,” Caroline Mulroney wrote in a three-page statement. “Together, they have led me to the conclusion that now is the right time to step back from elected life and begin a new chapter, one I am genuinely excited about.”
To Doug Ford, she added: “It has been an honour to serve in your cabinet... Thank you for your trust, your friendship and your unwavering commitment to this province.”
What he’s saying: The Premier — expected to pair a York-Simcoe by-election with Scarborough Southwest this summer — praised his “close personal friend,” saying her record is one “she can be immensely proud of.”
Added Ford: “Politics is in Caroline’s blood. The Ontario PC Party and our conservative movement will no doubt continue to benefit from her ideas and ideals.”
Behind the scenes: While Mulroney informed Ford on Sunday, much of cabinet was caught by surprise Monday morning when they learned of her sudden departure. But others say Mulroney’s decision — as a mother of four university-aged children — was easy to understand: “They’ve always been a huge concern for her,” one source said. “I think she wants more personal time than the job allows.”
That said: Eight years is a long stretch in politics — and by this point in any government, it’s natural that some of the oldest soldiers begin to ask themselves whether it’s time to leave public life.
But like Monte McNaughton and Rod Phillips before her, time away for Mulroney — long mentioned as a possible successor to Ford — would help separate her from the wear-and-tear of an aging government in a future leadership contest.
Everyone’s favourite s-word: Peter Bethlenfalvy and Natalia Kusendova-Bashta will take over Treasury Board and Francophone Affairs, respectively, but Ford will eventually need to name Mulroney’s permanent successor. It could all be part of a wider front-bench reboot, expected as early as June.
Already: We’re hearing at least two more cabinet ministers could soon follow Mulroney out. For one: As we’ve previously reported, Neil Lumsden — who despite a government spokesperson insisting otherwise — is said to be weighing retirement, and the NDP is already aggressively canvassing Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
Said one source: “I would assume cabinet has been told to express interest in leaving now, or forever hold their peace.”
But keep in mind: As every minister will tell you, the intricacies of any cabinet reboot — the who and the when — are typically finalized at the last minute and known only to Ford and his chief. But don’t kid yourself: around the cabinet table, everyone’s already quietly gaming out their chances.
A message from Alto:
SCOOP — “The appeal is dismissed:” A three-member arbitration panel has tossed Nate Erskine-Smith’s appeal, declaring that Ahsanul Hafiz was the “true winner” of the nomination contest in Scarborough Southwest.
For background: Erskine-Smith’s claim of “serious irregularities,” ranging from unaccounted-for ballots to inconsistent ID enforcement and questionable behaviour inside the voting room, had detonated a full-blown civil war in Liberal land.
But in a 17-page decision released late Sunday, the panel — including David Zimmer, Jennifer Norman and Adam Goldberg — rejected the appeal outright. They wrote: “Having carefully considered all of the evidence, we find that there were no irregularities in the conduct of the nomination meeting that affected the result of the vote or that call the meeting’s integrity into question.”
The big picture: It’s a devastating blow to Erskine-Smith, with the panel rejecting virtually every major allegation he made— including concerns about 34 “unaccounted-for ballots.” Instead, the panel concluded the discrepancy stemmed from what it called a “record-keeping error,” not evidence that ineligible voters cast ballots.
What they found: While 1,523 ballots were counted, only 1,489 names had initially been crossed off the voters list. But upon reviewing credentials forms, the returning officer identified 20 eligible voters whose names had simply not been marked off the list. That reduced the discrepancy to 14 votes — just under Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.
They concluded: “Even if there were evidence that 14 individuals voted at the meeting who had not been deemed eligible to vote — and, for the reasons given above, the evidence does not support this — a 14-vote discrepancy would still be insufficient to overcome Mr. Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.”
Second: The arbitrators rejected Erskine-Smith’s arguments about inconsistencies in how voters were ID’d, concluding the returning officer had broad discretion to decide what counted as acceptable identification — including electronic records and other non-traditional documents.
Erskine-Smith argued that Milton Chan’s involvement created a reasonable apprehension of bias because he was both a “known political opponent” — having managed Yasir Naqvi’s last leadership campaign — and a close friend of Tom Allison, Hafiz’s chief scrutineer. Chan managed the credentials desk at the nomination meeting.
The arbitrators weren’t persuaded. “There is no evidence” that Chan is a current “political opponent” of Erskine-Smith, the panel wrote, arguing that Chan’s involvement in a rival leadership campaign years prior did not mean he was trying to undermine Erskine-Smith in Scarborough Southwest.
They added: “[Chan] made eligibility determinations with which Mr. Hafiz’s campaign — and [Allison] specifically — disagreed, just as he made determinations with which Mr. Erskine-Smith’s camp disagreed. We see no fair basis on which to cast aspersions on this individual’s role in making eligibility determinations at the Scarborough Southwest nomination meeting… We pause here to note that, in any internal party contest, some of the individuals involved will inevitably have worked against and alongside one another on other campaigns over the years. It is not also surprising, let alone improper, for party officials at a nomination meeting to have friends, even close friends, involved in one or more of the nomination campaigns. The Ontario Liberal Party is a volunteer-driven organization and there are only so many of us who are willing and able to give of our time to support the party and its activities. One cannot remain involved in party politics over time unless one is willing and able to oppose one’s friends, or to rule against them, in internal party contests. Nothing about this is irregular or improper.”
On allegations of questionable conduct inside the voting room — including allegations that some voters were taking photos inside the voting room — the panel was equally dismissive, writing that none of it undermined confidence in the legitimacy of the result.
Of note: Arbitrators pointed repeatedly to the fact that many of the Erskine-Smith campaign’s concerns were only raised after the results were known, not during the meeting itself.
The big picture: At the heart of the ruling was a broader defence of volunteer-run nomination contests.
The panel leaned heavily on the Supreme Court’s Opitz ruling, which found that “imperfections” are inevitable — and that “courts cannot demand perfect certainty” in the conduct of elections. Applying that logic here, arbitrators argued the same standard should apply to party nominations, where the key test is whether the integrity of the process was ultimately maintained.
What the party is saying: In a statement, the Ontario Liberal Party said it will now “unite behind our candidate and work together to win this seat.” Added interim Liberal leader John Fraser: “Now that the arbitration committee dismissed this appeal, our focus is the voters of Scarborough Southwest. They have an important decision ahead, and we will work hard to earn their trust.”
Erskine-Smith did not respond to a request for comment.
— The House is in session.
Today: Second reading debate of Tom Rakocevic, Jessica Bell and Kristyn Wong-Tam’s Bill 113, the Fair Prices and Tax-Free Groceries Act. No word yet on the rest of this week’s business.
Also happening:
— Fundraising watch: At 5:30 p.m., the Tories are hosting a $1,500-a-ticket fundraiser in Toronto. RSVP.
At 6:30 p.m., Liberal leader John Fraser will speak at a $200-a-ticket event in Oakville. RSVP.
Tomorrow at 6 p.m., the Tories are hosting yet another $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser. RSVP.
On Saturday at 11:30 a.m., Dalton McGuinty will speak about his new book at a $75-a-ticket luncheon in Niagara Falls. RSVP.
— 🍴 On the lunch menu: Monday: Chicken souvlaki with potatoes and vegetables. Tuesday: Beef brisket with potatoes and vegetables. Wednesday: Sweet and sour pork with rice and vegetables. Thursday: Fish and chips. Friday: Smoked turkey pasta alla vodka with salad and garlic bread.
— City Hall’s open secret: The Star goes inside Toronto City Hall, where allegations of a “toxic” workplace culture drove a covert union drive. One aide “described being sexually harassed by a colleague, including extremely intimate and unwelcomed questions about their body parts — with no reprimand from the councillor once it was raised. This staffer said meanwhile they would often get ’disparaging’ personal feedback rather than constructive criticism about the work itself. They eventually took a leave of absence.”
Meanwhile: Olivia Chow is running for re-election. “There’s plenty of time to campaign in the fall,” she said. “I registered today to say one thing: to the people of Toronto, I am in your corner. I’ve always been and always will be.”
— Furious Ford: “Premier Doug Ford says a decision by an Ontario Superior Courtjustice that prevents the Region of Waterloo from clearing the encampment at 100 Victoria St. N. in Kitchener is ’the most ridiculous ruling I’ve ever seen.’”
— Blue who? The Ford government is going to court to stop the release of documents connected to the abandoned blue licence plates.
Meanwhile: “The Ontario Appeal Court has dismissed the government’s attempt to cancel an order telling civil servants to access Doug Ford’s personal call logs, reactivating a requirement for the premier to hand over his records.”
— Martin Regg Cohn writes on Speaker Donna Skelly: “Thanks to her previous career as a television newscaster, Skelly has a commanding voice and presence that exude authority. With her dulcet tones perfected on air, and the power of inflection, she needn’t raise her voice the way so many of her male predecessors did in frustration and futility.”
— Canadians are increasingly upbeat about the direction of the country, a new survey found.
— It’s a mutiny: One city is taking the Ford government to court over strong mayor powers, though John Michael McGrath argues it probably won’t work.
Stratford’s mayor is backing the court challenge, though he’s questioning the price tag and chances of success. “Do we spend taxpayers’ dollars on a process that we don’t know what the total cost will be?” he asked.
The government says extending these powers was the right call.
— The Kandavel probe: “Police investigators digging into allegations against Toronto councillor Parthi Kandavel have recently reached out to developers at a third property… The inquiry to developers at the third property was made in mid-May, after the police probe was made public.”
(It’s a sigh of relief for many Liberals: Before deciding on an open race, John Fraser had considered appointing one of several candidates in Scarborough Southwest — including Kandavel.)
— AI is already creeping into municipal politics.
A message from Alto:
— The Tories and Liberals are neck-and-neck, according to a new Liaison poll.
By the numbers: Both parties sit at 37 per cent — the second straight time the ruling party has failed to open up a lead — followed by the NDP at 20 per cent, ahead of the Greens at 4 per cent.
Just 28 per cent approve of the Premier’s performance, while 67 per cent disapprove. Nearly two-thirds — 64 per cent — believe Ontario is on the wrong track, versus 31 per cent who say it’s not.
The survey tested public opinion on kitchen-table issues. Just under two-thirds — 63 per cent — say it will be the primary factor driving how they vote in the next election.
Asked what has been hardest to manage in their household budgets, respondents pointed first to groceries at 38 per cent, with housing not far behind at 35 per cent. The numbers reveal a clear age gap: younger Ontarians are far more likely to cite housing costs, while older respondents are feeling the squeeze most at the grocery store.
Meanwhile: The Ford government’s cost-of-living policies are landing with a thud. Just six per cent of respondents said policies like gas tax cuts and tax credits have made a significant impact in their finances. Another 18 per cent reported a moderate impact, but nearly three-quarters — 74 per cent — said the measures have had only a minor impact or none at all.
The methodology: Conducted on May 15 and 16 via IVR, the survey polled 1,000 voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1 per cent.
— First: Daisy Wai says she is recovering at home following surgery.
“It was very successful,” the PC MPP, who is in “good spirits,” wrote Friday. “I am expecting a full recovery and will return to Queen’s Park soon. I look forward to continuing serving my constituents in Richmond Hill.”
She added: “I am thankful that Premier Ford and all caucus members are very supportive and encouraging.”
Meanwhile: Wai poured cold water on rumours that she’s preparing to step down, calling them “totally incorrect” and saying they have “no ground.”
(Wai hasn’t spoken in the House since April, when she was met with a long standing ovation from colleagues following her members’ statement. At least one PC MPP appeared visibly emotional.)
— Noted: Matt Rae is the Tories’ new caucus chair, taking over from Will Bouma.
— Noticed: Every NDP MPP is asking whether ministries spent any money connected to the private jet: “Would the _____________ confirm if they consented to and if any Ministry of _____________ funding contributed to the Ontario government’s purchase of a Bombardier 650 Challenger private jet.”
— We’re two: Some 150 of Ontario’s top political players gathered earlier this month to celebrate our second birthday and the launch of our new podcast, “The Insiders.”
Seen: Marit Stiles, Jordan Berger, Stephen Lecce, Doug Downey, Bonnie Crombie, Patrick Brown, Adil Shamji, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell, Vik Handa, Rob Cerjanec, Melody Kuo, Patrick Sackville, Christine Simundson, Steve Doherty, Nicolas Di Marco, Chelsea McGee, Justine Teplycky, Michel Figueredo, Jack Fazzari, Bianca Giacoboni, Dayna Smockum, Sydney Pothakos, Melanie Paradis, Erin Morrison, Ivanna Purkiss, Ben Purkiss, Holly Fullager, Sharan Kaur, Kyle Jacobs, Forrest Parlee, Lucas Meyer, Jad El Tal, Mayeesha Chowdhury, Christy Kheirallah, Marzian Alam, Kathryn McGarry, Darryn McArthur, Elizabeth Young, David Valentin, Joseph Angolano, Quito Maggi, Ferd Longo, A.J. Mawani, Laura Walton, Chris Cowley, René Jansen in de Wal, Kim Wright, Harneet Singh, Hasneet Singh Punia, Josh Matlow, Keerthana Rang, Marcel Weider, Charlie Pinkerton, Tina Yazdani, Kamil Karamali, Ginella Massa, Travis Dhanraj, Sarbjit Kaur, Karman Wong, Alan Hale, Dan Earle, Lorne Levy, Madalyn Calzvara, Nathaniel Arfin, Evan Sambasivam, Noah Parker, Gabe Blanc, Mahdis Habibina, Bahoz Dara Aziz, Eric Osborne, Supriya Dwivedi, Natalie Hart and more.
— In memoriam: Former Toronto councillor Howard Moscoe has died. He was 86.
— Aidan Thompson is out at the Liberal Services Caucus Bureau, joining Liberal MP Danielle Martin. (Thompson was communications director on Martin’s by-election campaign.)
Gabrielle Glasier is the new manager of stakeholder relations and major events.
— Olivia Akena has joined Texture Communications as a senior communications consultant.
Holly Fullager, who previously worked for Natural Resources Minister Mike Harris Jr., is now a director at Texture.
— Vickramjeet Aujla, Raymond Caputo, Asher Fishman, Peter Horgan and Anya Kortenaar have been appointed to the Ontario Court of Justice. Herb Kreling has been appointed regional senior justice of the peace for the East.
— Camillo Cipriano is the new CEO of the Toronto District School Board.
— Sarah McQuarrie is joining the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario as chief strategy officer.
— Jason Rowe, Stacey Rowe and Tom Cardinal have resigned from the Carpenters’ Regional Council.
Zooming out: The United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America is investigating the union over the purchase of two high-value properties near Toronto, including one occupied by Rowe and his wife.
— Over at the Ontario Federation of Labour, an independent workplace investigation into Laura Walton found that none of the complaints against her amounted to “breaches of the Collective Agreement, the Occupational Health and Safety Act, or the Ontario Human Rights Code.”
— Robin Jones will not seek re-election as Westport Village’s mayor. Jones is the president of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario.
Over in Mississauga: Michelle Baker will run in Ward 2, now represented by Alvin Tedjo. Baker is the executive director of Ontario’s Big City Mayors and a former chief to then-Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie.
— Noted: Stephen Lecce and Melissa Lantsman are the co-chairs of Steven Del Duca’s re-election campaign in Vaughan.
Zi-Ann Lum of POLITICO and Jeremy Borg of Western Standard have joined the Legislative Press Gallery.
— The subject line on Lee Fairclough’s latest email to supporters: “While others whine, Lee wins.”
Overheard: Some on Fairclough’s team have been making calls to Erskine-Smith supporters.
— Noted: A controversial freeze on freedom of information requests has been reversed.
Meet the “Section 31 Liberals,” a faction urging the party to bar temporary residents from voting in nomination and leadership contests.
The Home Depot is the latest to join Ontario Corps.
— Seen: Beehives on the roof of Queen’s Park.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Did David Zimmer and co. make the right call on Scarborough Southwest? Will the House rise early? Hit me up — anonymity guaranteed, just like the sources you’re wondering about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
Got 5+ on your team? Team subscriptions are available. Got a client with a message to reach the province’s most powerful players? Ask for our ad rates. Reach out.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now.
Nate Erskine-Smith has lost his appeal of the Scarborough Southwest nomination contest. A PC MPP is recovering from surgery, but says she’s not going anywhere. The NDP is turning up the heat in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Plus, a Monday surprise at the cabinet table. But to start:
Seen: He’s in! Navdeep Bains is entering the Liberal leadership contest. He posted a teaser video to X earlier today, and his campaign website is already live.
Who’s who: Jamie Kippen will run Bains’ campaign. We’re told Bains has racked up endorsements from Arielle Kayabaga, Jenna Sudds, Karina Gould, Omar Alghabra and Mark Holland. Yasir Naqvi, who placed third in the 2023 leadership contest, is also endorsing the ex-Trudeau minister.
Meanwhile: Rob Cerjanec is expected to formally enter the leadership race as early as Wednesday, we’re told.
Mulroney’s out — The President of the Treasury Board is leaving provincial politics.
What she’s saying: “Two years ago, I lost my father. Last year, my husband Andrew and I became empty nesters. These are the kinds of moments that clarify what matters,” Caroline Mulroney wrote in a three-page statement. “Together, they have led me to the conclusion that now is the right time to step back from elected life and begin a new chapter, one I am genuinely excited about.”
To Doug Ford, she added: “It has been an honour to serve in your cabinet... Thank you for your trust, your friendship and your unwavering commitment to this province.”
What he’s saying: The Premier — expected to pair a York-Simcoe by-election with Scarborough Southwest this summer — praised his “close personal friend,” saying her record is one “she can be immensely proud of.”
Added Ford: “Politics is in Caroline’s blood. The Ontario PC Party and our conservative movement will no doubt continue to benefit from her ideas and ideals.”
Behind the scenes: While Mulroney informed Ford on Sunday, much of cabinet was caught by surprise Monday morning when they learned of her sudden departure. But others say Mulroney’s decision — as a mother of four university-aged children — was easy to understand: “They’ve always been a huge concern for her,” one source said. “I think she wants more personal time than the job allows.”
That said: Eight years is a long stretch in politics — and by this point in any government, it’s natural that some of the oldest soldiers begin to ask themselves whether it’s time to leave public life.
But like Monte McNaughton and Rod Phillips before her, time away for Mulroney — long mentioned as a possible successor to Ford — would help separate her from the wear-and-tear of an aging government in a future leadership contest.
Everyone’s favourite s-word: Peter Bethlenfalvy and Natalia Kusendova-Bashta will take over Treasury Board and Francophone Affairs, respectively, but Ford will eventually need to name Mulroney’s permanent successor. It could all be part of a wider front-bench reboot, expected as early as June.
Already: We’re hearing at least two more cabinet ministers could soon follow Mulroney out. For one: As we’ve previously reported, Neil Lumsden — who despite a government spokesperson insisting otherwise — is said to be weighing retirement, and the NDP is already aggressively canvassing Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
Said one source: “I would assume cabinet has been told to express interest in leaving now, or forever hold their peace.”
But keep in mind: As every minister will tell you, the intricacies of any cabinet reboot — the who and the when — are typically finalized at the last minute and known only to Ford and his chief. But don’t kid yourself: around the cabinet table, everyone’s already quietly gaming out their chances.
A message from Alto:
SCOOP — “The appeal is dismissed:” A three-member arbitration panel has tossed Nate Erskine-Smith’s appeal, declaring that Ahsanul Hafiz was the “true winner” of the nomination contest in Scarborough Southwest.
For background: Erskine-Smith’s claim of “serious irregularities,” ranging from unaccounted-for ballots to inconsistent ID enforcement and questionable behaviour inside the voting room, had detonated a full-blown civil war in Liberal land.
But in a 17-page decision released late Sunday, the panel — including David Zimmer, Jennifer Norman and Adam Goldberg — rejected the appeal outright. They wrote: “Having carefully considered all of the evidence, we find that there were no irregularities in the conduct of the nomination meeting that affected the result of the vote or that call the meeting’s integrity into question.”
The big picture: It’s a devastating blow to Erskine-Smith, with the panel rejecting virtually every major allegation he made— including concerns about 34 “unaccounted-for ballots.” Instead, the panel concluded the discrepancy stemmed from what it called a “record-keeping error,” not evidence that ineligible voters cast ballots.
What they found: While 1,523 ballots were counted, only 1,489 names had initially been crossed off the voters list. But upon reviewing credentials forms, the returning officer identified 20 eligible voters whose names had simply not been marked off the list. That reduced the discrepancy to 14 votes — just under Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.
They concluded: “Even if there were evidence that 14 individuals voted at the meeting who had not been deemed eligible to vote — and, for the reasons given above, the evidence does not support this — a 14-vote discrepancy would still be insufficient to overcome Mr. Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.”
Second: The arbitrators rejected Erskine-Smith’s arguments about inconsistencies in how voters were ID’d, concluding the returning officer had broad discretion to decide what counted as acceptable identification — including electronic records and other non-traditional documents.
Erskine-Smith argued that Milton Chan’s involvement created a reasonable apprehension of bias because he was both a “known political opponent” — having managed Yasir Naqvi’s last leadership campaign — and a close friend of Tom Allison, Hafiz’s chief scrutineer. Chan managed the credentials desk at the nomination meeting.
The arbitrators weren’t persuaded. “There is no evidence” that Chan is a current “political opponent” of Erskine-Smith, the panel wrote, arguing that Chan’s involvement in a rival leadership campaign years prior did not mean he was trying to undermine Erskine-Smith in Scarborough Southwest.
They added: “[Chan] made eligibility determinations with which Mr. Hafiz’s campaign — and [Allison] specifically — disagreed, just as he made determinations with which Mr. Erskine-Smith’s camp disagreed. We see no fair basis on which to cast aspersions on this individual’s role in making eligibility determinations at the Scarborough Southwest nomination meeting… We pause here to note that, in any internal party contest, some of the individuals involved will inevitably have worked against and alongside one another on other campaigns over the years. It is not also surprising, let alone improper, for party officials at a nomination meeting to have friends, even close friends, involved in one or more of the nomination campaigns. The Ontario Liberal Party is a volunteer-driven organization and there are only so many of us who are willing and able to give of our time to support the party and its activities. One cannot remain involved in party politics over time unless one is willing and able to oppose one’s friends, or to rule against them, in internal party contests. Nothing about this is irregular or improper.”
On allegations of questionable conduct inside the voting room — including allegations that some voters were taking photos inside the voting room — the panel was equally dismissive, writing that none of it undermined confidence in the legitimacy of the result.
Of note: Arbitrators pointed repeatedly to the fact that many of the Erskine-Smith campaign’s concerns were only raised after the results were known, not during the meeting itself.
The big picture: At the heart of the ruling was a broader defence of volunteer-run nomination contests.
The panel leaned heavily on the Supreme Court’s Opitz ruling, which found that “imperfections” are inevitable — and that “courts cannot demand perfect certainty” in the conduct of elections. Applying that logic here, arbitrators argued the same standard should apply to party nominations, where the key test is whether the integrity of the process was ultimately maintained.
What the party is saying: In a statement, the Ontario Liberal Party said it will now “unite behind our candidate and work together to win this seat.” Added interim Liberal leader John Fraser: “Now that the arbitration committee dismissed this appeal, our focus is the voters of Scarborough Southwest. They have an important decision ahead, and we will work hard to earn their trust.”
Erskine-Smith did not respond to a request for comment.
— The House is in session.
Today: Second reading debate of Tom Rakocevic, Jessica Bell and Kristyn Wong-Tam’s Bill 113, the Fair Prices and Tax-Free Groceries Act. No word yet on the rest of this week’s business.
Also happening:
— Fundraising watch: At 5:30 p.m., the Tories are hosting a $1,500-a-ticket fundraiser in Toronto. RSVP.
At 6:30 p.m., Liberal leader John Fraser will speak at a $200-a-ticket event in Oakville. RSVP.
Tomorrow at 6 p.m., the Tories are hosting yet another $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser. RSVP.
On Saturday at 11:30 a.m., Dalton McGuinty will speak about his new book at a $75-a-ticket luncheon in Niagara Falls. RSVP.
— 🍴 On the lunch menu: Monday: Chicken souvlaki with potatoes and vegetables. Tuesday: Beef brisket with potatoes and vegetables. Wednesday: Sweet and sour pork with rice and vegetables. Thursday: Fish and chips. Friday: Smoked turkey pasta alla vodka with salad and garlic bread.
— City Hall’s open secret: The Star goes inside Toronto City Hall, where allegations of a “toxic” workplace culture drove a covert union drive. One aide “described being sexually harassed by a colleague, including extremely intimate and unwelcomed questions about their body parts — with no reprimand from the councillor once it was raised. This staffer said meanwhile they would often get ’disparaging’ personal feedback rather than constructive criticism about the work itself. They eventually took a leave of absence.”
Meanwhile: Olivia Chow is running for re-election. “There’s plenty of time to campaign in the fall,” she said. “I registered today to say one thing: to the people of Toronto, I am in your corner. I’ve always been and always will be.”
— Furious Ford: “Premier Doug Ford says a decision by an Ontario Superior Courtjustice that prevents the Region of Waterloo from clearing the encampment at 100 Victoria St. N. in Kitchener is ’the most ridiculous ruling I’ve ever seen.’”
— Blue who? The Ford government is going to court to stop the release of documents connected to the abandoned blue licence plates.
Meanwhile: “The Ontario Appeal Court has dismissed the government’s attempt to cancel an order telling civil servants to access Doug Ford’s personal call logs, reactivating a requirement for the premier to hand over his records.”
— Martin Regg Cohn writes on Speaker Donna Skelly: “Thanks to her previous career as a television newscaster, Skelly has a commanding voice and presence that exude authority. With her dulcet tones perfected on air, and the power of inflection, she needn’t raise her voice the way so many of her male predecessors did in frustration and futility.”
— Canadians are increasingly upbeat about the direction of the country, a new survey found.
— It’s a mutiny: One city is taking the Ford government to court over strong mayor powers, though John Michael McGrath argues it probably won’t work.
Stratford’s mayor is backing the court challenge, though he’s questioning the price tag and chances of success. “Do we spend taxpayers’ dollars on a process that we don’t know what the total cost will be?” he asked.
The government says extending these powers was the right call.
— The Kandavel probe: “Police investigators digging into allegations against Toronto councillor Parthi Kandavel have recently reached out to developers at a third property… The inquiry to developers at the third property was made in mid-May, after the police probe was made public.”
(It’s a sigh of relief for many Liberals: Before deciding on an open race, John Fraser had considered appointing one of several candidates in Scarborough Southwest — including Kandavel.)
— AI is already creeping into municipal politics.
A message from Alto:
— The Tories and Liberals are neck-and-neck, according to a new Liaison poll.
By the numbers: Both parties sit at 37 per cent — the second straight time the ruling party has failed to open up a lead — followed by the NDP at 20 per cent, ahead of the Greens at 4 per cent.
Just 28 per cent approve of the Premier’s performance, while 67 per cent disapprove. Nearly two-thirds — 64 per cent — believe Ontario is on the wrong track, versus 31 per cent who say it’s not.
The survey tested public opinion on kitchen-table issues. Just under two-thirds — 63 per cent — say it will be the primary factor driving how they vote in the next election.
Asked what has been hardest to manage in their household budgets, respondents pointed first to groceries at 38 per cent, with housing not far behind at 35 per cent. The numbers reveal a clear age gap: younger Ontarians are far more likely to cite housing costs, while older respondents are feeling the squeeze most at the grocery store.
Meanwhile: The Ford government’s cost-of-living policies are landing with a thud. Just six per cent of respondents said policies like gas tax cuts and tax credits have made a significant impact in their finances. Another 18 per cent reported a moderate impact, but nearly three-quarters — 74 per cent — said the measures have had only a minor impact or none at all.
The methodology: Conducted on May 15 and 16 via IVR, the survey polled 1,000 voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1 per cent.
— First: Daisy Wai says she is recovering at home following surgery.
“It was very successful,” the PC MPP, who is in “good spirits,” wrote Friday. “I am expecting a full recovery and will return to Queen’s Park soon. I look forward to continuing serving my constituents in Richmond Hill.”
She added: “I am thankful that Premier Ford and all caucus members are very supportive and encouraging.”
Meanwhile: Wai poured cold water on rumours that she’s preparing to step down, calling them “totally incorrect” and saying they have “no ground.”
(Wai hasn’t spoken in the House since April, when she was met with a long standing ovation from colleagues following her members’ statement. At least one PC MPP appeared visibly emotional.)
— Noted: Matt Rae is the Tories’ new caucus chair, taking over from Will Bouma.
— Noticed: Every NDP MPP is asking whether ministries spent any money connected to the private jet: “Would the _____________ confirm if they consented to and if any Ministry of _____________ funding contributed to the Ontario government’s purchase of a Bombardier 650 Challenger private jet.”
— We’re two: Some 150 of Ontario’s top political players gathered earlier this month to celebrate our second birthday and the launch of our new podcast, “The Insiders.”
Seen: Marit Stiles, Jordan Berger, Stephen Lecce, Doug Downey, Bonnie Crombie, Patrick Brown, Adil Shamji, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell, Vik Handa, Rob Cerjanec, Melody Kuo, Patrick Sackville, Christine Simundson, Steve Doherty, Nicolas Di Marco, Chelsea McGee, Justine Teplycky, Michel Figueredo, Jack Fazzari, Bianca Giacoboni, Dayna Smockum, Sydney Pothakos, Melanie Paradis, Erin Morrison, Ivanna Purkiss, Ben Purkiss, Holly Fullager, Sharan Kaur, Kyle Jacobs, Forrest Parlee, Lucas Meyer, Jad El Tal, Mayeesha Chowdhury, Christy Kheirallah, Marzian Alam, Kathryn McGarry, Darryn McArthur, Elizabeth Young, David Valentin, Joseph Angolano, Quito Maggi, Ferd Longo, A.J. Mawani, Laura Walton, Chris Cowley, René Jansen in de Wal, Kim Wright, Harneet Singh, Hasneet Singh Punia, Josh Matlow, Keerthana Rang, Marcel Weider, Charlie Pinkerton, Tina Yazdani, Kamil Karamali, Ginella Massa, Travis Dhanraj, Sarbjit Kaur, Karman Wong, Alan Hale, Dan Earle, Lorne Levy, Madalyn Calzvara, Nathaniel Arfin, Evan Sambasivam, Noah Parker, Gabe Blanc, Mahdis Habibina, Bahoz Dara Aziz, Eric Osborne, Supriya Dwivedi, Natalie Hart and more.
— In memoriam: Former Toronto councillor Howard Moscoe has died. He was 86.
— Aidan Thompson is out at the Liberal Services Caucus Bureau, joining Liberal MP Danielle Martin. (Thompson was communications director on Martin’s by-election campaign.)
Gabrielle Glasier is the new manager of stakeholder relations and major events.
— Olivia Akena has joined Texture Communications as a senior communications consultant.
Holly Fullager, who previously worked for Natural Resources Minister Mike Harris Jr., is now a director at Texture.
— Vickramjeet Aujla, Raymond Caputo, Asher Fishman, Peter Horgan and Anya Kortenaar have been appointed to the Ontario Court of Justice. Herb Kreling has been appointed regional senior justice of the peace for the East.
— Camillo Cipriano is the new CEO of the Toronto District School Board.
— Sarah McQuarrie is joining the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario as chief strategy officer.
— Jason Rowe, Stacey Rowe and Tom Cardinal have resigned from the Carpenters’ Regional Council.
Zooming out: The United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America is investigating the union over the purchase of two high-value properties near Toronto, including one occupied by Rowe and his wife.
— Over at the Ontario Federation of Labour, an independent workplace investigation into Laura Walton found that none of the complaints against her amounted to “breaches of the Collective Agreement, the Occupational Health and Safety Act, or the Ontario Human Rights Code.”
— Robin Jones will not seek re-election as Westport Village’s mayor. Jones is the president of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario.
Over in Mississauga: Michelle Baker will run in Ward 2, now represented by Alvin Tedjo. Baker is the executive director of Ontario’s Big City Mayors and a former chief to then-Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie.
— Noted: Stephen Lecce and Melissa Lantsman are the co-chairs of Steven Del Duca’s re-election campaign in Vaughan.
Zi-Ann Lum of POLITICO and Jeremy Borg of Western Standard have joined the Legislative Press Gallery.
— The subject line on Lee Fairclough’s latest email to supporters: “While others whine, Lee wins.”
Overheard: Some on Fairclough’s team have been making calls to Erskine-Smith supporters.
— Noted: A controversial freeze on freedom of information requests has been reversed.
Meet the “Section 31 Liberals,” a faction urging the party to bar temporary residents from voting in nomination and leadership contests.
The Home Depot is the latest to join Ontario Corps.
— Seen: Beehives on the roof of Queen’s Park.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Did David Zimmer and co. make the right call on Scarborough Southwest? Will the House rise early? Hit me up — anonymity guaranteed, just like the sources you’re wondering about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
Got 5+ on your team? Team subscriptions are available. Got a client with a message to reach the province’s most powerful players? Ask for our ad rates. Reach out.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now.
Nate Erskine-Smith has lost his appeal of the Scarborough Southwest nomination contest. A PC MPP is recovering from surgery, but says she’s not going anywhere. The NDP is turning up the heat in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Plus, a Monday surprise at the cabinet table. But to start:
Seen: He’s in! Navdeep Bains is entering the Liberal leadership contest. He posted a teaser video to X earlier today, and his campaign website is already live.
Who’s who: Jamie Kippen will run Bains’ campaign. We’re told Bains has racked up endorsements from Arielle Kayabaga, Jenna Sudds, Karina Gould, Omar Alghabra and Mark Holland. Yasir Naqvi, who placed third in the 2023 leadership contest, is also endorsing the ex-Trudeau minister.
Meanwhile: Rob Cerjanec is expected to formally enter the leadership race as early as Wednesday, we’re told.
Mulroney’s out — The President of the Treasury Board is leaving provincial politics.
What she’s saying: “Two years ago, I lost my father. Last year, my husband Andrew and I became empty nesters. These are the kinds of moments that clarify what matters,” Caroline Mulroney wrote in a three-page statement. “Together, they have led me to the conclusion that now is the right time to step back from elected life and begin a new chapter, one I am genuinely excited about.”
To Doug Ford, she added: “It has been an honour to serve in your cabinet... Thank you for your trust, your friendship and your unwavering commitment to this province.”
What he’s saying: The Premier — expected to pair a York-Simcoe by-election with Scarborough Southwest this summer — praised his “close personal friend,” saying her record is one “she can be immensely proud of.”
Added Ford: “Politics is in Caroline’s blood. The Ontario PC Party and our conservative movement will no doubt continue to benefit from her ideas and ideals.”
Behind the scenes: While Mulroney informed Ford on Sunday, much of cabinet was caught by surprise Monday morning when they learned of her sudden departure. But others say Mulroney’s decision — as a mother of four university-aged children — was easy to understand: “They’ve always been a huge concern for her,” one source said. “I think she wants more personal time than the job allows.”
That said: Eight years is a long stretch in politics — and by this point in any government, it’s natural that some of the oldest soldiers begin to ask themselves whether it’s time to leave public life.
But like Monte McNaughton and Rod Phillips before her, time away for Mulroney — long mentioned as a possible successor to Ford — would help separate her from the wear-and-tear of an aging government in a future leadership contest.
Everyone’s favourite s-word: Peter Bethlenfalvy and Natalia Kusendova-Bashta will take over Treasury Board and Francophone Affairs, respectively, but Ford will eventually need to name Mulroney’s permanent successor. It could all be part of a wider front-bench reboot, expected as early as June.
Already: We’re hearing at least two more cabinet ministers could soon follow Mulroney out. For one: As we’ve previously reported, Neil Lumsden — who despite a government spokesperson insisting otherwise — is said to be weighing retirement, and the NDP is already aggressively canvassing Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
Said one source: “I would assume cabinet has been told to express interest in leaving now, or forever hold their peace.”
But keep in mind: As every minister will tell you, the intricacies of any cabinet reboot — the who and the when — are typically finalized at the last minute and known only to Ford and his chief. But don’t kid yourself: around the cabinet table, everyone’s already quietly gaming out their chances.
A message from Alto:
SCOOP — “The appeal is dismissed:” A three-member arbitration panel has tossed Nate Erskine-Smith’s appeal, declaring that Ahsanul Hafiz was the “true winner” of the nomination contest in Scarborough Southwest.
For background: Erskine-Smith’s claim of “serious irregularities,” ranging from unaccounted-for ballots to inconsistent ID enforcement and questionable behaviour inside the voting room, had detonated a full-blown civil war in Liberal land.
But in a 17-page decision released late Sunday, the panel — including David Zimmer, Jennifer Norman and Adam Goldberg — rejected the appeal outright. They wrote: “Having carefully considered all of the evidence, we find that there were no irregularities in the conduct of the nomination meeting that affected the result of the vote or that call the meeting’s integrity into question.”
The big picture: It’s a devastating blow to Erskine-Smith, with the panel rejecting virtually every major allegation he made— including concerns about 34 “unaccounted-for ballots.” Instead, the panel concluded the discrepancy stemmed from what it called a “record-keeping error,” not evidence that ineligible voters cast ballots.
What they found: While 1,523 ballots were counted, only 1,489 names had initially been crossed off the voters list. But upon reviewing credentials forms, the returning officer identified 20 eligible voters whose names had simply not been marked off the list. That reduced the discrepancy to 14 votes — just under Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.
They concluded: “Even if there were evidence that 14 individuals voted at the meeting who had not been deemed eligible to vote — and, for the reasons given above, the evidence does not support this — a 14-vote discrepancy would still be insufficient to overcome Mr. Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.”
Second: The arbitrators rejected Erskine-Smith’s arguments about inconsistencies in how voters were ID’d, concluding the returning officer had broad discretion to decide what counted as acceptable identification — including electronic records and other non-traditional documents.
Erskine-Smith argued that Milton Chan’s involvement created a reasonable apprehension of bias because he was both a “known political opponent” — having managed Yasir Naqvi’s last leadership campaign — and a close friend of Tom Allison, Hafiz’s chief scrutineer. Chan managed the credentials desk at the nomination meeting.
The arbitrators weren’t persuaded. “There is no evidence” that Chan is a current “political opponent” of Erskine-Smith, the panel wrote, arguing that Chan’s involvement in a rival leadership campaign years prior did not mean he was trying to undermine Erskine-Smith in Scarborough Southwest.
They added: “[Chan] made eligibility determinations with which Mr. Hafiz’s campaign — and [Allison] specifically — disagreed, just as he made determinations with which Mr. Erskine-Smith’s camp disagreed. We see no fair basis on which to cast aspersions on this individual’s role in making eligibility determinations at the Scarborough Southwest nomination meeting… We pause here to note that, in any internal party contest, some of the individuals involved will inevitably have worked against and alongside one another on other campaigns over the years. It is not also surprising, let alone improper, for party officials at a nomination meeting to have friends, even close friends, involved in one or more of the nomination campaigns. The Ontario Liberal Party is a volunteer-driven organization and there are only so many of us who are willing and able to give of our time to support the party and its activities. One cannot remain involved in party politics over time unless one is willing and able to oppose one’s friends, or to rule against them, in internal party contests. Nothing about this is irregular or improper.”
On allegations of questionable conduct inside the voting room — including allegations that some voters were taking photos inside the voting room — the panel was equally dismissive, writing that none of it undermined confidence in the legitimacy of the result.
Of note: Arbitrators pointed repeatedly to the fact that many of the Erskine-Smith campaign’s concerns were only raised after the results were known, not during the meeting itself.
The big picture: At the heart of the ruling was a broader defence of volunteer-run nomination contests.
The panel leaned heavily on the Supreme Court’s Opitz ruling, which found that “imperfections” are inevitable — and that “courts cannot demand perfect certainty” in the conduct of elections. Applying that logic here, arbitrators argued the same standard should apply to party nominations, where the key test is whether the integrity of the process was ultimately maintained.
What the party is saying: In a statement, the Ontario Liberal Party said it will now “unite behind our candidate and work together to win this seat.” Added interim Liberal leader John Fraser: “Now that the arbitration committee dismissed this appeal, our focus is the voters of Scarborough Southwest. They have an important decision ahead, and we will work hard to earn their trust.”
Erskine-Smith did not respond to a request for comment.
— The House is in session.
Today: Second reading debate of Tom Rakocevic, Jessica Bell and Kristyn Wong-Tam’s Bill 113, the Fair Prices and Tax-Free Groceries Act. No word yet on the rest of this week’s business.
Also happening:
— Fundraising watch: At 5:30 p.m., the Tories are hosting a $1,500-a-ticket fundraiser in Toronto. RSVP.
At 6:30 p.m., Liberal leader John Fraser will speak at a $200-a-ticket event in Oakville. RSVP.
Tomorrow at 6 p.m., the Tories are hosting yet another $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser. RSVP.
On Saturday at 11:30 a.m., Dalton McGuinty will speak about his new book at a $75-a-ticket luncheon in Niagara Falls. RSVP.
— 🍴 On the lunch menu: Monday: Chicken souvlaki with potatoes and vegetables. Tuesday: Beef brisket with potatoes and vegetables. Wednesday: Sweet and sour pork with rice and vegetables. Thursday: Fish and chips. Friday: Smoked turkey pasta alla vodka with salad and garlic bread.
— City Hall’s open secret: The Star goes inside Toronto City Hall, where allegations of a “toxic” workplace culture drove a covert union drive. One aide “described being sexually harassed by a colleague, including extremely intimate and unwelcomed questions about their body parts — with no reprimand from the councillor once it was raised. This staffer said meanwhile they would often get ’disparaging’ personal feedback rather than constructive criticism about the work itself. They eventually took a leave of absence.”
Meanwhile: Olivia Chow is running for re-election. “There’s plenty of time to campaign in the fall,” she said. “I registered today to say one thing: to the people of Toronto, I am in your corner. I’ve always been and always will be.”
— Furious Ford: “Premier Doug Ford says a decision by an Ontario Superior Courtjustice that prevents the Region of Waterloo from clearing the encampment at 100 Victoria St. N. in Kitchener is ’the most ridiculous ruling I’ve ever seen.’”
— Blue who? The Ford government is going to court to stop the release of documents connected to the abandoned blue licence plates.
Meanwhile: “The Ontario Appeal Court has dismissed the government’s attempt to cancel an order telling civil servants to access Doug Ford’s personal call logs, reactivating a requirement for the premier to hand over his records.”
— Martin Regg Cohn writes on Speaker Donna Skelly: “Thanks to her previous career as a television newscaster, Skelly has a commanding voice and presence that exude authority. With her dulcet tones perfected on air, and the power of inflection, she needn’t raise her voice the way so many of her male predecessors did in frustration and futility.”
— Canadians are increasingly upbeat about the direction of the country, a new survey found.
— It’s a mutiny: One city is taking the Ford government to court over strong mayor powers, though John Michael McGrath argues it probably won’t work.
Stratford’s mayor is backing the court challenge, though he’s questioning the price tag and chances of success. “Do we spend taxpayers’ dollars on a process that we don’t know what the total cost will be?” he asked.
The government says extending these powers was the right call.
— The Kandavel probe: “Police investigators digging into allegations against Toronto councillor Parthi Kandavel have recently reached out to developers at a third property… The inquiry to developers at the third property was made in mid-May, after the police probe was made public.”
(It’s a sigh of relief for many Liberals: Before deciding on an open race, John Fraser had considered appointing one of several candidates in Scarborough Southwest — including Kandavel.)
— AI is already creeping into municipal politics.
A message from Alto:
— The Tories and Liberals are neck-and-neck, according to a new Liaison poll.
By the numbers: Both parties sit at 37 per cent — the second straight time the ruling party has failed to open up a lead — followed by the NDP at 20 per cent, ahead of the Greens at 4 per cent.
Just 28 per cent approve of the Premier’s performance, while 67 per cent disapprove. Nearly two-thirds — 64 per cent — believe Ontario is on the wrong track, versus 31 per cent who say it’s not.
The survey tested public opinion on kitchen-table issues. Just under two-thirds — 63 per cent — say it will be the primary factor driving how they vote in the next election.
Asked what has been hardest to manage in their household budgets, respondents pointed first to groceries at 38 per cent, with housing not far behind at 35 per cent. The numbers reveal a clear age gap: younger Ontarians are far more likely to cite housing costs, while older respondents are feeling the squeeze most at the grocery store.
Meanwhile: The Ford government’s cost-of-living policies are landing with a thud. Just six per cent of respondents said policies like gas tax cuts and tax credits have made a significant impact in their finances. Another 18 per cent reported a moderate impact, but nearly three-quarters — 74 per cent — said the measures have had only a minor impact or none at all.
The methodology: Conducted on May 15 and 16 via IVR, the survey polled 1,000 voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1 per cent.
— First: Daisy Wai says she is recovering at home following surgery.
“It was very successful,” the PC MPP, who is in “good spirits,” wrote Friday. “I am expecting a full recovery and will return to Queen’s Park soon. I look forward to continuing serving my constituents in Richmond Hill.”
She added: “I am thankful that Premier Ford and all caucus members are very supportive and encouraging.”
Meanwhile: Wai poured cold water on rumours that she’s preparing to step down, calling them “totally incorrect” and saying they have “no ground.”
(Wai hasn’t spoken in the House since April, when she was met with a long standing ovation from colleagues following her members’ statement. At least one PC MPP appeared visibly emotional.)
— Noted: Matt Rae is the Tories’ new caucus chair, taking over from Will Bouma.
— Noticed: Every NDP MPP is asking whether ministries spent any money connected to the private jet: “Would the _____________ confirm if they consented to and if any Ministry of _____________ funding contributed to the Ontario government’s purchase of a Bombardier 650 Challenger private jet.”
— We’re two: Some 150 of Ontario’s top political players gathered earlier this month to celebrate our second birthday and the launch of our new podcast, “The Insiders.”
Seen: Marit Stiles, Jordan Berger, Stephen Lecce, Doug Downey, Bonnie Crombie, Patrick Brown, Adil Shamji, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell, Vik Handa, Rob Cerjanec, Melody Kuo, Patrick Sackville, Christine Simundson, Steve Doherty, Nicolas Di Marco, Chelsea McGee, Justine Teplycky, Michel Figueredo, Jack Fazzari, Bianca Giacoboni, Dayna Smockum, Sydney Pothakos, Melanie Paradis, Erin Morrison, Ivanna Purkiss, Ben Purkiss, Holly Fullager, Sharan Kaur, Kyle Jacobs, Forrest Parlee, Lucas Meyer, Jad El Tal, Mayeesha Chowdhury, Christy Kheirallah, Marzian Alam, Kathryn McGarry, Darryn McArthur, Elizabeth Young, David Valentin, Joseph Angolano, Quito Maggi, Ferd Longo, A.J. Mawani, Laura Walton, Chris Cowley, René Jansen in de Wal, Kim Wright, Harneet Singh, Hasneet Singh Punia, Josh Matlow, Keerthana Rang, Marcel Weider, Charlie Pinkerton, Tina Yazdani, Kamil Karamali, Ginella Massa, Travis Dhanraj, Sarbjit Kaur, Karman Wong, Alan Hale, Dan Earle, Lorne Levy, Madalyn Calzvara, Nathaniel Arfin, Evan Sambasivam, Noah Parker, Gabe Blanc, Mahdis Habibina, Bahoz Dara Aziz, Eric Osborne, Supriya Dwivedi, Natalie Hart and more.
— In memoriam: Former Toronto councillor Howard Moscoe has died. He was 86.
— Aidan Thompson is out at the Liberal Services Caucus Bureau, joining Liberal MP Danielle Martin. (Thompson was communications director on Martin’s by-election campaign.)
Gabrielle Glasier is the new manager of stakeholder relations and major events.
— Olivia Akena has joined Texture Communications as a senior communications consultant.
Holly Fullager, who previously worked for Natural Resources Minister Mike Harris Jr., is now a director at Texture.
— Vickramjeet Aujla, Raymond Caputo, Asher Fishman, Peter Horgan and Anya Kortenaar have been appointed to the Ontario Court of Justice. Herb Kreling has been appointed regional senior justice of the peace for the East.
— Camillo Cipriano is the new CEO of the Toronto District School Board.
— Sarah McQuarrie is joining the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario as chief strategy officer.
— Jason Rowe, Stacey Rowe and Tom Cardinal have resigned from the Carpenters’ Regional Council.
Zooming out: The United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America is investigating the union over the purchase of two high-value properties near Toronto, including one occupied by Rowe and his wife.
— Over at the Ontario Federation of Labour, an independent workplace investigation into Laura Walton found that none of the complaints against her amounted to “breaches of the Collective Agreement, the Occupational Health and Safety Act, or the Ontario Human Rights Code.”
— Robin Jones will not seek re-election as Westport Village’s mayor. Jones is the president of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario.
Over in Mississauga: Michelle Baker will run in Ward 2, now represented by Alvin Tedjo. Baker is the executive director of Ontario’s Big City Mayors and a former chief to then-Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie.
— Noted: Stephen Lecce and Melissa Lantsman are the co-chairs of Steven Del Duca’s re-election campaign in Vaughan.
Zi-Ann Lum of POLITICO and Jeremy Borg of Western Standard have joined the Legislative Press Gallery.
— The subject line on Lee Fairclough’s latest email to supporters: “While others whine, Lee wins.”
Overheard: Some on Fairclough’s team have been making calls to Erskine-Smith supporters.
— Noted: A controversial freeze on freedom of information requests has been reversed.
Meet the “Section 31 Liberals,” a faction urging the party to bar temporary residents from voting in nomination and leadership contests.
The Home Depot is the latest to join Ontario Corps.
— Seen: Beehives on the roof of Queen’s Park.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Did David Zimmer and co. make the right call on Scarborough Southwest? Will the House rise early? Hit me up — anonymity guaranteed, just like the sources you’re wondering about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
Got 5+ on your team? Team subscriptions are available. Got a client with a message to reach the province’s most powerful players? Ask for our ad rates. Reach out.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now.
Nate Erskine-Smith has lost his appeal of the Scarborough Southwest nomination contest. A PC MPP is recovering from surgery, but says she’s not going anywhere. The NDP is turning up the heat in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Plus, a Monday surprise at the cabinet table. But to start:
Seen: He’s in! Navdeep Bains is entering the Liberal leadership contest. He posted a teaser video to X earlier today, and his campaign website is already live.
Who’s who: Jamie Kippen will run Bains’ campaign. We’re told Bains has racked up endorsements from Arielle Kayabaga, Jenna Sudds, Karina Gould, Omar Alghabra and Mark Holland. Yasir Naqvi, who placed third in the 2023 leadership contest, is also endorsing the ex-Trudeau minister.
Meanwhile: Rob Cerjanec is expected to formally enter the leadership race as early as Wednesday, we’re told.
Mulroney’s out — The President of the Treasury Board is leaving provincial politics.
What she’s saying: “Two years ago, I lost my father. Last year, my husband Andrew and I became empty nesters. These are the kinds of moments that clarify what matters,” Caroline Mulroney wrote in a three-page statement. “Together, they have led me to the conclusion that now is the right time to step back from elected life and begin a new chapter, one I am genuinely excited about.”
To Doug Ford, she added: “It has been an honour to serve in your cabinet... Thank you for your trust, your friendship and your unwavering commitment to this province.”
What he’s saying: The Premier — expected to pair a York-Simcoe by-election with Scarborough Southwest this summer — praised his “close personal friend,” saying her record is one “she can be immensely proud of.”
Added Ford: “Politics is in Caroline’s blood. The Ontario PC Party and our conservative movement will no doubt continue to benefit from her ideas and ideals.”
Behind the scenes: While Mulroney informed Ford on Sunday, much of cabinet was caught by surprise Monday morning when they learned of her sudden departure. But others say Mulroney’s decision — as a mother of four university-aged children — was easy to understand: “They’ve always been a huge concern for her,” one source said. “I think she wants more personal time than the job allows.”
That said: Eight years is a long stretch in politics — and by this point in any government, it’s natural that some of the oldest soldiers begin to ask themselves whether it’s time to leave public life.
But like Monte McNaughton and Rod Phillips before her, time away for Mulroney — long mentioned as a possible successor to Ford — would help separate her from the wear-and-tear of an aging government in a future leadership contest.
Everyone’s favourite s-word: Peter Bethlenfalvy and Natalia Kusendova-Bashta will take over Treasury Board and Francophone Affairs, respectively, but Ford will eventually need to name Mulroney’s permanent successor. It could all be part of a wider front-bench reboot, expected as early as June.
Already: We’re hearing at least two more cabinet ministers could soon follow Mulroney out. For one: As we’ve previously reported, Neil Lumsden — who despite a government spokesperson insisting otherwise — is said to be weighing retirement, and the NDP is already aggressively canvassing Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
Said one source: “I would assume cabinet has been told to express interest in leaving now, or forever hold their peace.”
But keep in mind: As every minister will tell you, the intricacies of any cabinet reboot — the who and the when — are typically finalized at the last minute and known only to Ford and his chief. But don’t kid yourself: around the cabinet table, everyone’s already quietly gaming out their chances.
A message from Alto:
SCOOP — “The appeal is dismissed:” A three-member arbitration panel has tossed Nate Erskine-Smith’s appeal, declaring that Ahsanul Hafiz was the “true winner” of the nomination contest in Scarborough Southwest.
For background: Erskine-Smith’s claim of “serious irregularities,” ranging from unaccounted-for ballots to inconsistent ID enforcement and questionable behaviour inside the voting room, had detonated a full-blown civil war in Liberal land.
But in a 17-page decision released late Sunday, the panel — including David Zimmer, Jennifer Norman and Adam Goldberg — rejected the appeal outright. They wrote: “Having carefully considered all of the evidence, we find that there were no irregularities in the conduct of the nomination meeting that affected the result of the vote or that call the meeting’s integrity into question.”
The big picture: It’s a devastating blow to Erskine-Smith, with the panel rejecting virtually every major allegation he made— including concerns about 34 “unaccounted-for ballots.” Instead, the panel concluded the discrepancy stemmed from what it called a “record-keeping error,” not evidence that ineligible voters cast ballots.
What they found: While 1,523 ballots were counted, only 1,489 names had initially been crossed off the voters list. But upon reviewing credentials forms, the returning officer identified 20 eligible voters whose names had simply not been marked off the list. That reduced the discrepancy to 14 votes — just under Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.
They concluded: “Even if there were evidence that 14 individuals voted at the meeting who had not been deemed eligible to vote — and, for the reasons given above, the evidence does not support this — a 14-vote discrepancy would still be insufficient to overcome Mr. Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.”
Second: The arbitrators rejected Erskine-Smith’s arguments about inconsistencies in how voters were ID’d, concluding the returning officer had broad discretion to decide what counted as acceptable identification — including electronic records and other non-traditional documents.
Erskine-Smith argued that Milton Chan’s involvement created a reasonable apprehension of bias because he was both a “known political opponent” — having managed Yasir Naqvi’s last leadership campaign — and a close friend of Tom Allison, Hafiz’s chief scrutineer. Chan managed the credentials desk at the nomination meeting.
The arbitrators weren’t persuaded. “There is no evidence” that Chan is a current “political opponent” of Erskine-Smith, the panel wrote, arguing that Chan’s involvement in a rival leadership campaign years prior did not mean he was trying to undermine Erskine-Smith in Scarborough Southwest.
They added: “[Chan] made eligibility determinations with which Mr. Hafiz’s campaign — and [Allison] specifically — disagreed, just as he made determinations with which Mr. Erskine-Smith’s camp disagreed. We see no fair basis on which to cast aspersions on this individual’s role in making eligibility determinations at the Scarborough Southwest nomination meeting… We pause here to note that, in any internal party contest, some of the individuals involved will inevitably have worked against and alongside one another on other campaigns over the years. It is not also surprising, let alone improper, for party officials at a nomination meeting to have friends, even close friends, involved in one or more of the nomination campaigns. The Ontario Liberal Party is a volunteer-driven organization and there are only so many of us who are willing and able to give of our time to support the party and its activities. One cannot remain involved in party politics over time unless one is willing and able to oppose one’s friends, or to rule against them, in internal party contests. Nothing about this is irregular or improper.”
On allegations of questionable conduct inside the voting room — including allegations that some voters were taking photos inside the voting room — the panel was equally dismissive, writing that none of it undermined confidence in the legitimacy of the result.
Of note: Arbitrators pointed repeatedly to the fact that many of the Erskine-Smith campaign’s concerns were only raised after the results were known, not during the meeting itself.
The big picture: At the heart of the ruling was a broader defence of volunteer-run nomination contests.
The panel leaned heavily on the Supreme Court’s Opitz ruling, which found that “imperfections” are inevitable — and that “courts cannot demand perfect certainty” in the conduct of elections. Applying that logic here, arbitrators argued the same standard should apply to party nominations, where the key test is whether the integrity of the process was ultimately maintained.
What the party is saying: In a statement, the Ontario Liberal Party said it will now “unite behind our candidate and work together to win this seat.” Added interim Liberal leader John Fraser: “Now that the arbitration committee dismissed this appeal, our focus is the voters of Scarborough Southwest. They have an important decision ahead, and we will work hard to earn their trust.”
Erskine-Smith did not respond to a request for comment.
— The House is in session.
Today: Second reading debate of Tom Rakocevic, Jessica Bell and Kristyn Wong-Tam’s Bill 113, the Fair Prices and Tax-Free Groceries Act. No word yet on the rest of this week’s business.
Also happening:
— Fundraising watch: At 5:30 p.m., the Tories are hosting a $1,500-a-ticket fundraiser in Toronto. RSVP.
At 6:30 p.m., Liberal leader John Fraser will speak at a $200-a-ticket event in Oakville. RSVP.
Tomorrow at 6 p.m., the Tories are hosting yet another $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser. RSVP.
On Saturday at 11:30 a.m., Dalton McGuinty will speak about his new book at a $75-a-ticket luncheon in Niagara Falls. RSVP.
— 🍴 On the lunch menu: Monday: Chicken souvlaki with potatoes and vegetables. Tuesday: Beef brisket with potatoes and vegetables. Wednesday: Sweet and sour pork with rice and vegetables. Thursday: Fish and chips. Friday: Smoked turkey pasta alla vodka with salad and garlic bread.
— City Hall’s open secret: The Star goes inside Toronto City Hall, where allegations of a “toxic” workplace culture drove a covert union drive. One aide “described being sexually harassed by a colleague, including extremely intimate and unwelcomed questions about their body parts — with no reprimand from the councillor once it was raised. This staffer said meanwhile they would often get ’disparaging’ personal feedback rather than constructive criticism about the work itself. They eventually took a leave of absence.”
Meanwhile: Olivia Chow is running for re-election. “There’s plenty of time to campaign in the fall,” she said. “I registered today to say one thing: to the people of Toronto, I am in your corner. I’ve always been and always will be.”
— Furious Ford: “Premier Doug Ford says a decision by an Ontario Superior Courtjustice that prevents the Region of Waterloo from clearing the encampment at 100 Victoria St. N. in Kitchener is ’the most ridiculous ruling I’ve ever seen.’”
— Blue who? The Ford government is going to court to stop the release of documents connected to the abandoned blue licence plates.
Meanwhile: “The Ontario Appeal Court has dismissed the government’s attempt to cancel an order telling civil servants to access Doug Ford’s personal call logs, reactivating a requirement for the premier to hand over his records.”
— Martin Regg Cohn writes on Speaker Donna Skelly: “Thanks to her previous career as a television newscaster, Skelly has a commanding voice and presence that exude authority. With her dulcet tones perfected on air, and the power of inflection, she needn’t raise her voice the way so many of her male predecessors did in frustration and futility.”
— Canadians are increasingly upbeat about the direction of the country, a new survey found.
— It’s a mutiny: One city is taking the Ford government to court over strong mayor powers, though John Michael McGrath argues it probably won’t work.
Stratford’s mayor is backing the court challenge, though he’s questioning the price tag and chances of success. “Do we spend taxpayers’ dollars on a process that we don’t know what the total cost will be?” he asked.
The government says extending these powers was the right call.
— The Kandavel probe: “Police investigators digging into allegations against Toronto councillor Parthi Kandavel have recently reached out to developers at a third property… The inquiry to developers at the third property was made in mid-May, after the police probe was made public.”
(It’s a sigh of relief for many Liberals: Before deciding on an open race, John Fraser had considered appointing one of several candidates in Scarborough Southwest — including Kandavel.)
— AI is already creeping into municipal politics.
A message from Alto:
— The Tories and Liberals are neck-and-neck, according to a new Liaison poll.
By the numbers: Both parties sit at 37 per cent — the second straight time the ruling party has failed to open up a lead — followed by the NDP at 20 per cent, ahead of the Greens at 4 per cent.
Just 28 per cent approve of the Premier’s performance, while 67 per cent disapprove. Nearly two-thirds — 64 per cent — believe Ontario is on the wrong track, versus 31 per cent who say it’s not.
The survey tested public opinion on kitchen-table issues. Just under two-thirds — 63 per cent — say it will be the primary factor driving how they vote in the next election.
Asked what has been hardest to manage in their household budgets, respondents pointed first to groceries at 38 per cent, with housing not far behind at 35 per cent. The numbers reveal a clear age gap: younger Ontarians are far more likely to cite housing costs, while older respondents are feeling the squeeze most at the grocery store.
Meanwhile: The Ford government’s cost-of-living policies are landing with a thud. Just six per cent of respondents said policies like gas tax cuts and tax credits have made a significant impact in their finances. Another 18 per cent reported a moderate impact, but nearly three-quarters — 74 per cent — said the measures have had only a minor impact or none at all.
The methodology: Conducted on May 15 and 16 via IVR, the survey polled 1,000 voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1 per cent.
— First: Daisy Wai says she is recovering at home following surgery.
“It was very successful,” the PC MPP, who is in “good spirits,” wrote Friday. “I am expecting a full recovery and will return to Queen’s Park soon. I look forward to continuing serving my constituents in Richmond Hill.”
She added: “I am thankful that Premier Ford and all caucus members are very supportive and encouraging.”
Meanwhile: Wai poured cold water on rumours that she’s preparing to step down, calling them “totally incorrect” and saying they have “no ground.”
(Wai hasn’t spoken in the House since April, when she was met with a long standing ovation from colleagues following her members’ statement. At least one PC MPP appeared visibly emotional.)
— Noted: Matt Rae is the Tories’ new caucus chair, taking over from Will Bouma.
— Noticed: Every NDP MPP is asking whether ministries spent any money connected to the private jet: “Would the _____________ confirm if they consented to and if any Ministry of _____________ funding contributed to the Ontario government’s purchase of a Bombardier 650 Challenger private jet.”
— We’re two: Some 150 of Ontario’s top political players gathered earlier this month to celebrate our second birthday and the launch of our new podcast, “The Insiders.”
Seen: Marit Stiles, Jordan Berger, Stephen Lecce, Doug Downey, Bonnie Crombie, Patrick Brown, Adil Shamji, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell, Vik Handa, Rob Cerjanec, Melody Kuo, Patrick Sackville, Christine Simundson, Steve Doherty, Nicolas Di Marco, Chelsea McGee, Justine Teplycky, Michel Figueredo, Jack Fazzari, Bianca Giacoboni, Dayna Smockum, Sydney Pothakos, Melanie Paradis, Erin Morrison, Ivanna Purkiss, Ben Purkiss, Holly Fullager, Sharan Kaur, Kyle Jacobs, Forrest Parlee, Lucas Meyer, Jad El Tal, Mayeesha Chowdhury, Christy Kheirallah, Marzian Alam, Kathryn McGarry, Darryn McArthur, Elizabeth Young, David Valentin, Joseph Angolano, Quito Maggi, Ferd Longo, A.J. Mawani, Laura Walton, Chris Cowley, René Jansen in de Wal, Kim Wright, Harneet Singh, Hasneet Singh Punia, Josh Matlow, Keerthana Rang, Marcel Weider, Charlie Pinkerton, Tina Yazdani, Kamil Karamali, Ginella Massa, Travis Dhanraj, Sarbjit Kaur, Karman Wong, Alan Hale, Dan Earle, Lorne Levy, Madalyn Calzvara, Nathaniel Arfin, Evan Sambasivam, Noah Parker, Gabe Blanc, Mahdis Habibina, Bahoz Dara Aziz, Eric Osborne, Supriya Dwivedi, Natalie Hart and more.
— In memoriam: Former Toronto councillor Howard Moscoe has died. He was 86.
— Aidan Thompson is out at the Liberal Services Caucus Bureau, joining Liberal MP Danielle Martin. (Thompson was communications director on Martin’s by-election campaign.)
Gabrielle Glasier is the new manager of stakeholder relations and major events.
— Olivia Akena has joined Texture Communications as a senior communications consultant.
Holly Fullager, who previously worked for Natural Resources Minister Mike Harris Jr., is now a director at Texture.
— Vickramjeet Aujla, Raymond Caputo, Asher Fishman, Peter Horgan and Anya Kortenaar have been appointed to the Ontario Court of Justice. Herb Kreling has been appointed regional senior justice of the peace for the East.
— Camillo Cipriano is the new CEO of the Toronto District School Board.
— Sarah McQuarrie is joining the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario as chief strategy officer.
— Jason Rowe, Stacey Rowe and Tom Cardinal have resigned from the Carpenters’ Regional Council.
Zooming out: The United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America is investigating the union over the purchase of two high-value properties near Toronto, including one occupied by Rowe and his wife.
— Over at the Ontario Federation of Labour, an independent workplace investigation into Laura Walton found that none of the complaints against her amounted to “breaches of the Collective Agreement, the Occupational Health and Safety Act, or the Ontario Human Rights Code.”
— Robin Jones will not seek re-election as Westport Village’s mayor. Jones is the president of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario.
Over in Mississauga: Michelle Baker will run in Ward 2, now represented by Alvin Tedjo. Baker is the executive director of Ontario’s Big City Mayors and a former chief to then-Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie.
— Noted: Stephen Lecce and Melissa Lantsman are the co-chairs of Steven Del Duca’s re-election campaign in Vaughan.
Zi-Ann Lum of POLITICO and Jeremy Borg of Western Standard have joined the Legislative Press Gallery.
— The subject line on Lee Fairclough’s latest email to supporters: “While others whine, Lee wins.”
Overheard: Some on Fairclough’s team have been making calls to Erskine-Smith supporters.
— Noted: A controversial freeze on freedom of information requests has been reversed.
Meet the “Section 31 Liberals,” a faction urging the party to bar temporary residents from voting in nomination and leadership contests.
The Home Depot is the latest to join Ontario Corps.
— Seen: Beehives on the roof of Queen’s Park.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Did David Zimmer and co. make the right call on Scarborough Southwest? Will the House rise early? Hit me up — anonymity guaranteed, just like the sources you’re wondering about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
Got 5+ on your team? Team subscriptions are available. Got a client with a message to reach the province’s most powerful players? Ask for our ad rates. Reach out.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now.
Nate Erskine-Smith has lost his appeal of the Scarborough Southwest nomination contest. A PC MPP is recovering from surgery, but says she’s not going anywhere. The NDP is turning up the heat in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Plus, a Monday surprise at the cabinet table. But to start:
Seen: He’s in! Navdeep Bains is entering the Liberal leadership contest. He posted a teaser video to X earlier today, and his campaign website is already live.
Who’s who: Jamie Kippen will run Bains’ campaign. We’re told Bains has racked up endorsements from Arielle Kayabaga, Jenna Sudds, Karina Gould, Omar Alghabra and Mark Holland. Yasir Naqvi, who placed third in the 2023 leadership contest, is also endorsing the ex-Trudeau minister.
Meanwhile: Rob Cerjanec is expected to formally enter the leadership race as early as Wednesday, we’re told.
Mulroney’s out — The President of the Treasury Board is leaving provincial politics.
What she’s saying: “Two years ago, I lost my father. Last year, my husband Andrew and I became empty nesters. These are the kinds of moments that clarify what matters,” Caroline Mulroney wrote in a three-page statement. “Together, they have led me to the conclusion that now is the right time to step back from elected life and begin a new chapter, one I am genuinely excited about.”
To Doug Ford, she added: “It has been an honour to serve in your cabinet... Thank you for your trust, your friendship and your unwavering commitment to this province.”
What he’s saying: The Premier — expected to pair a York-Simcoe by-election with Scarborough Southwest this summer — praised his “close personal friend,” saying her record is one “she can be immensely proud of.”
Added Ford: “Politics is in Caroline’s blood. The Ontario PC Party and our conservative movement will no doubt continue to benefit from her ideas and ideals.”
Behind the scenes: While Mulroney informed Ford on Sunday, much of cabinet was caught by surprise Monday morning when they learned of her sudden departure. But others say Mulroney’s decision — as a mother of four university-aged children — was easy to understand: “They’ve always been a huge concern for her,” one source said. “I think she wants more personal time than the job allows.”
That said: Eight years is a long stretch in politics — and by this point in any government, it’s natural that some of the oldest soldiers begin to ask themselves whether it’s time to leave public life.
But like Monte McNaughton and Rod Phillips before her, time away for Mulroney — long mentioned as a possible successor to Ford — would help separate her from the wear-and-tear of an aging government in a future leadership contest.
Everyone’s favourite s-word: Peter Bethlenfalvy and Natalia Kusendova-Bashta will take over Treasury Board and Francophone Affairs, respectively, but Ford will eventually need to name Mulroney’s permanent successor. It could all be part of a wider front-bench reboot, expected as early as June.
Already: We’re hearing at least two more cabinet ministers could soon follow Mulroney out. For one: As we’ve previously reported, Neil Lumsden — who despite a government spokesperson insisting otherwise — is said to be weighing retirement, and the NDP is already aggressively canvassing Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
Said one source: “I would assume cabinet has been told to express interest in leaving now, or forever hold their peace.”
But keep in mind: As every minister will tell you, the intricacies of any cabinet reboot — the who and the when — are typically finalized at the last minute and known only to Ford and his chief. But don’t kid yourself: around the cabinet table, everyone’s already quietly gaming out their chances.
A message from Alto:
SCOOP — “The appeal is dismissed:” A three-member arbitration panel has tossed Nate Erskine-Smith’s appeal, declaring that Ahsanul Hafiz was the “true winner” of the nomination contest in Scarborough Southwest.
For background: Erskine-Smith’s claim of “serious irregularities,” ranging from unaccounted-for ballots to inconsistent ID enforcement and questionable behaviour inside the voting room, had detonated a full-blown civil war in Liberal land.
But in a 17-page decision released late Sunday, the panel — including David Zimmer, Jennifer Norman and Adam Goldberg — rejected the appeal outright. They wrote: “Having carefully considered all of the evidence, we find that there were no irregularities in the conduct of the nomination meeting that affected the result of the vote or that call the meeting’s integrity into question.”
The big picture: It’s a devastating blow to Erskine-Smith, with the panel rejecting virtually every major allegation he made— including concerns about 34 “unaccounted-for ballots.” Instead, the panel concluded the discrepancy stemmed from what it called a “record-keeping error,” not evidence that ineligible voters cast ballots.
What they found: While 1,523 ballots were counted, only 1,489 names had initially been crossed off the voters list. But upon reviewing credentials forms, the returning officer identified 20 eligible voters whose names had simply not been marked off the list. That reduced the discrepancy to 14 votes — just under Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.
They concluded: “Even if there were evidence that 14 individuals voted at the meeting who had not been deemed eligible to vote — and, for the reasons given above, the evidence does not support this — a 14-vote discrepancy would still be insufficient to overcome Mr. Hafiz’s 19-vote margin of victory.”
Second: The arbitrators rejected Erskine-Smith’s arguments about inconsistencies in how voters were ID’d, concluding the returning officer had broad discretion to decide what counted as acceptable identification — including electronic records and other non-traditional documents.
Erskine-Smith argued that Milton Chan’s involvement created a reasonable apprehension of bias because he was both a “known political opponent” — having managed Yasir Naqvi’s last leadership campaign — and a close friend of Tom Allison, Hafiz’s chief scrutineer. Chan managed the credentials desk at the nomination meeting.
The arbitrators weren’t persuaded. “There is no evidence” that Chan is a current “political opponent” of Erskine-Smith, the panel wrote, arguing that Chan’s involvement in a rival leadership campaign years prior did not mean he was trying to undermine Erskine-Smith in Scarborough Southwest.
They added: “[Chan] made eligibility determinations with which Mr. Hafiz’s campaign — and [Allison] specifically — disagreed, just as he made determinations with which Mr. Erskine-Smith’s camp disagreed. We see no fair basis on which to cast aspersions on this individual’s role in making eligibility determinations at the Scarborough Southwest nomination meeting… We pause here to note that, in any internal party contest, some of the individuals involved will inevitably have worked against and alongside one another on other campaigns over the years. It is not also surprising, let alone improper, for party officials at a nomination meeting to have friends, even close friends, involved in one or more of the nomination campaigns. The Ontario Liberal Party is a volunteer-driven organization and there are only so many of us who are willing and able to give of our time to support the party and its activities. One cannot remain involved in party politics over time unless one is willing and able to oppose one’s friends, or to rule against them, in internal party contests. Nothing about this is irregular or improper.”
On allegations of questionable conduct inside the voting room — including allegations that some voters were taking photos inside the voting room — the panel was equally dismissive, writing that none of it undermined confidence in the legitimacy of the result.
Of note: Arbitrators pointed repeatedly to the fact that many of the Erskine-Smith campaign’s concerns were only raised after the results were known, not during the meeting itself.
The big picture: At the heart of the ruling was a broader defence of volunteer-run nomination contests.
The panel leaned heavily on the Supreme Court’s Opitz ruling, which found that “imperfections” are inevitable — and that “courts cannot demand perfect certainty” in the conduct of elections. Applying that logic here, arbitrators argued the same standard should apply to party nominations, where the key test is whether the integrity of the process was ultimately maintained.
What the party is saying: In a statement, the Ontario Liberal Party said it will now “unite behind our candidate and work together to win this seat.” Added interim Liberal leader John Fraser: “Now that the arbitration committee dismissed this appeal, our focus is the voters of Scarborough Southwest. They have an important decision ahead, and we will work hard to earn their trust.”
Erskine-Smith did not respond to a request for comment.
— The House is in session.
Today: Second reading debate of Tom Rakocevic, Jessica Bell and Kristyn Wong-Tam’s Bill 113, the Fair Prices and Tax-Free Groceries Act. No word yet on the rest of this week’s business.
Also happening:
— Fundraising watch: At 5:30 p.m., the Tories are hosting a $1,500-a-ticket fundraiser in Toronto. RSVP.
At 6:30 p.m., Liberal leader John Fraser will speak at a $200-a-ticket event in Oakville. RSVP.
Tomorrow at 6 p.m., the Tories are hosting yet another $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser. RSVP.
On Saturday at 11:30 a.m., Dalton McGuinty will speak about his new book at a $75-a-ticket luncheon in Niagara Falls. RSVP.
— 🍴 On the lunch menu: Monday: Chicken souvlaki with potatoes and vegetables. Tuesday: Beef brisket with potatoes and vegetables. Wednesday: Sweet and sour pork with rice and vegetables. Thursday: Fish and chips. Friday: Smoked turkey pasta alla vodka with salad and garlic bread.
— City Hall’s open secret: The Star goes inside Toronto City Hall, where allegations of a “toxic” workplace culture drove a covert union drive. One aide “described being sexually harassed by a colleague, including extremely intimate and unwelcomed questions about their body parts — with no reprimand from the councillor once it was raised. This staffer said meanwhile they would often get ’disparaging’ personal feedback rather than constructive criticism about the work itself. They eventually took a leave of absence.”
Meanwhile: Olivia Chow is running for re-election. “There’s plenty of time to campaign in the fall,” she said. “I registered today to say one thing: to the people of Toronto, I am in your corner. I’ve always been and always will be.”
— Furious Ford: “Premier Doug Ford says a decision by an Ontario Superior Courtjustice that prevents the Region of Waterloo from clearing the encampment at 100 Victoria St. N. in Kitchener is ’the most ridiculous ruling I’ve ever seen.’”
— Blue who? The Ford government is going to court to stop the release of documents connected to the abandoned blue licence plates.
Meanwhile: “The Ontario Appeal Court has dismissed the government’s attempt to cancel an order telling civil servants to access Doug Ford’s personal call logs, reactivating a requirement for the premier to hand over his records.”
— Martin Regg Cohn writes on Speaker Donna Skelly: “Thanks to her previous career as a television newscaster, Skelly has a commanding voice and presence that exude authority. With her dulcet tones perfected on air, and the power of inflection, she needn’t raise her voice the way so many of her male predecessors did in frustration and futility.”
— Canadians are increasingly upbeat about the direction of the country, a new survey found.
— It’s a mutiny: One city is taking the Ford government to court over strong mayor powers, though John Michael McGrath argues it probably won’t work.
Stratford’s mayor is backing the court challenge, though he’s questioning the price tag and chances of success. “Do we spend taxpayers’ dollars on a process that we don’t know what the total cost will be?” he asked.
The government says extending these powers was the right call.
— The Kandavel probe: “Police investigators digging into allegations against Toronto councillor Parthi Kandavel have recently reached out to developers at a third property… The inquiry to developers at the third property was made in mid-May, after the police probe was made public.”
(It’s a sigh of relief for many Liberals: Before deciding on an open race, John Fraser had considered appointing one of several candidates in Scarborough Southwest — including Kandavel.)
— AI is already creeping into municipal politics.
A message from Alto:
— The Tories and Liberals are neck-and-neck, according to a new Liaison poll.
By the numbers: Both parties sit at 37 per cent — the second straight time the ruling party has failed to open up a lead — followed by the NDP at 20 per cent, ahead of the Greens at 4 per cent.
Just 28 per cent approve of the Premier’s performance, while 67 per cent disapprove. Nearly two-thirds — 64 per cent — believe Ontario is on the wrong track, versus 31 per cent who say it’s not.
The survey tested public opinion on kitchen-table issues. Just under two-thirds — 63 per cent — say it will be the primary factor driving how they vote in the next election.
Asked what has been hardest to manage in their household budgets, respondents pointed first to groceries at 38 per cent, with housing not far behind at 35 per cent. The numbers reveal a clear age gap: younger Ontarians are far more likely to cite housing costs, while older respondents are feeling the squeeze most at the grocery store.
Meanwhile: The Ford government’s cost-of-living policies are landing with a thud. Just six per cent of respondents said policies like gas tax cuts and tax credits have made a significant impact in their finances. Another 18 per cent reported a moderate impact, but nearly three-quarters — 74 per cent — said the measures have had only a minor impact or none at all.
The methodology: Conducted on May 15 and 16 via IVR, the survey polled 1,000 voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1 per cent.
— First: Daisy Wai says she is recovering at home following surgery.
“It was very successful,” the PC MPP, who is in “good spirits,” wrote Friday. “I am expecting a full recovery and will return to Queen’s Park soon. I look forward to continuing serving my constituents in Richmond Hill.”
She added: “I am thankful that Premier Ford and all caucus members are very supportive and encouraging.”
Meanwhile: Wai poured cold water on rumours that she’s preparing to step down, calling them “totally incorrect” and saying they have “no ground.”
(Wai hasn’t spoken in the House since April, when she was met with a long standing ovation from colleagues following her members’ statement. At least one PC MPP appeared visibly emotional.)
— Noted: Matt Rae is the Tories’ new caucus chair, taking over from Will Bouma.
— Noticed: Every NDP MPP is asking whether ministries spent any money connected to the private jet: “Would the _____________ confirm if they consented to and if any Ministry of _____________ funding contributed to the Ontario government’s purchase of a Bombardier 650 Challenger private jet.”
— We’re two: Some 150 of Ontario’s top political players gathered earlier this month to celebrate our second birthday and the launch of our new podcast, “The Insiders.”
Seen: Marit Stiles, Jordan Berger, Stephen Lecce, Doug Downey, Bonnie Crombie, Patrick Brown, Adil Shamji, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell, Vik Handa, Rob Cerjanec, Melody Kuo, Patrick Sackville, Christine Simundson, Steve Doherty, Nicolas Di Marco, Chelsea McGee, Justine Teplycky, Michel Figueredo, Jack Fazzari, Bianca Giacoboni, Dayna Smockum, Sydney Pothakos, Melanie Paradis, Erin Morrison, Ivanna Purkiss, Ben Purkiss, Holly Fullager, Sharan Kaur, Kyle Jacobs, Forrest Parlee, Lucas Meyer, Jad El Tal, Mayeesha Chowdhury, Christy Kheirallah, Marzian Alam, Kathryn McGarry, Darryn McArthur, Elizabeth Young, David Valentin, Joseph Angolano, Quito Maggi, Ferd Longo, A.J. Mawani, Laura Walton, Chris Cowley, René Jansen in de Wal, Kim Wright, Harneet Singh, Hasneet Singh Punia, Josh Matlow, Keerthana Rang, Marcel Weider, Charlie Pinkerton, Tina Yazdani, Kamil Karamali, Ginella Massa, Travis Dhanraj, Sarbjit Kaur, Karman Wong, Alan Hale, Dan Earle, Lorne Levy, Madalyn Calzvara, Nathaniel Arfin, Evan Sambasivam, Noah Parker, Gabe Blanc, Mahdis Habibina, Bahoz Dara Aziz, Eric Osborne, Supriya Dwivedi, Natalie Hart and more.
— In memoriam: Former Toronto councillor Howard Moscoe has died. He was 86.
— Aidan Thompson is out at the Liberal Services Caucus Bureau, joining Liberal MP Danielle Martin. (Thompson was communications director on Martin’s by-election campaign.)
Gabrielle Glasier is the new manager of stakeholder relations and major events.
— Olivia Akena has joined Texture Communications as a senior communications consultant.
Holly Fullager, who previously worked for Natural Resources Minister Mike Harris Jr., is now a director at Texture.
— Vickramjeet Aujla, Raymond Caputo, Asher Fishman, Peter Horgan and Anya Kortenaar have been appointed to the Ontario Court of Justice. Herb Kreling has been appointed regional senior justice of the peace for the East.
— Camillo Cipriano is the new CEO of the Toronto District School Board.
— Sarah McQuarrie is joining the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario as chief strategy officer.
— Jason Rowe, Stacey Rowe and Tom Cardinal have resigned from the Carpenters’ Regional Council.
Zooming out: The United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America is investigating the union over the purchase of two high-value properties near Toronto, including one occupied by Rowe and his wife.
— Over at the Ontario Federation of Labour, an independent workplace investigation into Laura Walton found that none of the complaints against her amounted to “breaches of the Collective Agreement, the Occupational Health and Safety Act, or the Ontario Human Rights Code.”
— Robin Jones will not seek re-election as Westport Village’s mayor. Jones is the president of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario.
Over in Mississauga: Michelle Baker will run in Ward 2, now represented by Alvin Tedjo. Baker is the executive director of Ontario’s Big City Mayors and a former chief to then-Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie.
— Noted: Stephen Lecce and Melissa Lantsman are the co-chairs of Steven Del Duca’s re-election campaign in Vaughan.
Zi-Ann Lum of POLITICO and Jeremy Borg of Western Standard have joined the Legislative Press Gallery.
— The subject line on Lee Fairclough’s latest email to supporters: “While others whine, Lee wins.”
Overheard: Some on Fairclough’s team have been making calls to Erskine-Smith supporters.
— Noted: A controversial freeze on freedom of information requests has been reversed.
Meet the “Section 31 Liberals,” a faction urging the party to bar temporary residents from voting in nomination and leadership contests.
The Home Depot is the latest to join Ontario Corps.
— Seen: Beehives on the roof of Queen’s Park.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Did David Zimmer and co. make the right call on Scarborough Southwest? Will the House rise early? Hit me up — anonymity guaranteed, just like the sources you’re wondering about. We’re back in your inbox on Monday.
Got 5+ on your team? Team subscriptions are available. Got a client with a message to reach the province’s most powerful players? Ask for our ad rates. Reach out.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now.