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Looming large over Doug Ford’s post-election budget is Donald Trump.
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That is: Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence — and riding high from a rare cold-weather election that doubled as a verdict on the governing Tories’ economic stewardship, Peter Bethlenfalvy’s Thursday blueprint will be all about economic triage.
It’ll be part construction plan, part economic shield. Already, the government has teased a “build more, build faster” budget, while Ford hinted at “a few more billion dollars” to blunt a blow from the trade war. “There’s a time to make sure that we balance, and there’s a time that it might be a few billion dollars more to protect communities,” he said.
Insiders say the budget will stay on-brand. “I think what we’ve seen from the government so far is a focus on growth. That’s why they’ve been cutting back on interprovincial trade barriers. It’s why they’re streamlining some of the province’s most cumbersome regulatory processes,” one said.
“I expect the budget will build on that either with necessary tax measures, or more measures to increase competition.”
Still, how much red ink Ford is willing to tolerate? Can the province climb back to black? We expect the budget to push the path to balance further down the road — but how far? Is this the moment for belt-tightening or big spending?
To weigh in on what to expect, we enlisted Brian Lewis, the province’s ex-top economist-turned-senior fellow at the Munk School.
Here are the highlights of our conversation:
What are you looking for in next week’s budget?
“I’ll be looking for a few things next week. I’ll be interested to see if there’s more to be said about the government’s response to the global trade war. The government has done some things — some useful things, right? They’ve given businesses more time to pay their taxes. They’ve introduced a manufacturing tax credit. There could be more in the budget, so I’d be interested to see what that would be.
Looming large over Doug Ford’s post-election budget is Donald Trump.
That is: Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence — and riding high from a rare cold-weather election that doubled as a verdict on the governing Tories’ economic stewardship, Peter Bethlenfalvy’s Thursday blueprint will be all about economic triage.
It’ll be part construction plan, part economic shield. Already, the government has teased a “build more, build faster” budget, while Ford hinted at “a few more billion dollars” to blunt a blow from the trade war. “There’s a time to make sure that we balance, and there’s a time that it might be a few billion dollars more to protect communities,” he said.
Insiders say the budget will stay on-brand. “I think what we’ve seen from the government so far is a focus on growth. That’s why they’ve been cutting back on interprovincial trade barriers. It’s why they’re streamlining some of the province’s most cumbersome regulatory processes,” one said.
“I expect the budget will build on that either with necessary tax measures, or more measures to increase competition.”
Still, how much red ink Ford is willing to tolerate? Can the province climb back to black? We expect the budget to push the path to balance further down the road — but how far? Is this the moment for belt-tightening or big spending?
To weigh in on what to expect, we enlisted Brian Lewis, the province’s ex-top economist-turned-senior fellow at the Munk School.
Here are the highlights of our conversation:
What are you looking for in next week’s budget?
“I’ll be looking for a few things next week. I’ll be interested to see if there’s more to be said about the government’s response to the global trade war. The government has done some things — some useful things, right? They’ve given businesses more time to pay their taxes. They’ve introduced a manufacturing tax credit. There could be more in the budget, so I’d be interested to see what that would be.
Looming large over Doug Ford’s post-election budget is Donald Trump.
That is: Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence — and riding high from a rare cold-weather election that doubled as a verdict on the governing Tories’ economic stewardship, Peter Bethlenfalvy’s Thursday blueprint will be all about economic triage.
It’ll be part construction plan, part economic shield. Already, the government has teased a “build more, build faster” budget, while Ford hinted at “a few more billion dollars” to blunt a blow from the trade war. “There’s a time to make sure that we balance, and there’s a time that it might be a few billion dollars more to protect communities,” he said.
Insiders say the budget will stay on-brand. “I think what we’ve seen from the government so far is a focus on growth. That’s why they’ve been cutting back on interprovincial trade barriers. It’s why they’re streamlining some of the province’s most cumbersome regulatory processes,” one said.
“I expect the budget will build on that either with necessary tax measures, or more measures to increase competition.”
Still, how much red ink is Ford willing to tolerate? Can the province climb back to black? We expect the budget to push the path to balance further down the road — but how far? Is this the moment for belt-tightening or big spending?
To weigh in on what to expect, we enlisted Brian Lewis, the province’s ex-top economist-turned-senior fellow at the Munk School.
Here are the highlights of our conversation:
What are you looking for in next week’s budget?
“I’ll be looking for a few things next week. I’ll be interested to see if there’s more to be said about the government’s response to the global trade war. The government has done some things — some useful things, right? They’ve given businesses more time to pay their taxes. They’ve introduced a manufacturing tax credit. There could be more in the budget, so I’d be interested to see what that would be. I think that’s probably going to be front and center in people’s minds — both what the government is going to do to help the people who get hurt by this in the immediate time-frame, and how it is planning to push the economy in some new direction, given that our trade relationship with the United States is in a really dicey situation.
The second will be the financial update. My guess — and I hope to be wrong on this — is that we’re looking at a pretty significant, possibly record-setting deficit, and a long path back to a balanced budget. I hope there’s better financial news in the budget. But given where we were back in the fall economic statement — and that was before Trump, before the weakening growth outlook, before the need to respond to everything that’s happened on the trade front, and of course before the platform promises — all of that probably adds up to a significant amount of red ink in the budget. So I’m looking forward to seeing where things land — and what the government’s plan is to get us back to balance. I’ll be darn interested in that.”
It’s interesting given where we were in November with the FES. I remember we spoke and the province was in a much more comfortable spot.
“Yeah, the previous year was about balanced, right? Normally, you would’ve had your third-quarter financial report in February. Normally, we’d see a budget in March. But obviously, events overtook that — first the provincial election call, and now a federal one. I think the government was well-advised to wait until the federal election was over before tabling the provincial budget, because there could be implications for the province. So I don’t have a problem with the timing per se, but it has been a while since we’ve seen the books. We were within a whisker of balancing the budget in 2023-24. We had a lot of deficit in 2024-25, but it was supposed to return to balance a couple of years after that. So it wasn’t bad — it was an improvement, and it was pretty good news. I don’t think we’ll be looking at that next week. The idea that we’ll have a deficit next year of $1.5 billion — which is essentially a balanced budget — is unlikely. Quebec and British Columbia both tabled record-setting deficits in their budgets. So let’s see the price tag of everything that’s happened since the fall economic statement — it’s going to be pretty big.”
I’m curious — when you’re facing serious uncertainty from the United States and don’t fully know the economic fallout, is this the time for restraint or is it the time to stimulate the economy? How does a government strike the right balance?"
“Oh yeah, that’s exactly it. It’s about striking the balance. I mean, this is the time to make sure you have policies in place to help anybody who gets hurt by what’s happening — that’s the role of government. And yes, that means running a deficit, especially when you’re already in mild deficit territory. That’s kind of textbook economics: you step in early, deploy targeted support, and then pay down the debt later. So running a deficit right now isn’t really the issue. The real questions are: how deep is it, and what are you spending the money on?
Go on.
To your question — yes, there’s so much uncertainty right now about what’s happening on the trade front and what the impact will be. That makes it really hard for governments to know exactly what to do. This is very different from the pandemic, where the problem was obvious — large parts of the economy were shut down, people were losing jobs, businesses were on the brink. It was clear that support was needed fast. This time, it’s much harder to predict. So I think some of the government’s basic steps — like giving people more time to pay their taxes and WSIB premium relief — are smart. My instinct is they may need to set money aside and say: we’re ready to act when necessary. But it’s hard to say exactly what they should do right now, especially because we don’t yet know what the federal government’s response will be.
I expect a budget that speaks to contingency — recognizing that we may need to do a lot, even though we don’t know exactly what that looks like yet. And the responsible thing to do is to build that into the finances: set money aside, so if we need it, it’s there. If we don’t need it, the year ends a bit better.”
If there is new spending — not necessarily stimulus — what sectors do you think the government would be willing to invest in, given the context of tariffs and the uncertainty with the United States? In your view, what would be smart fiscal bets right now?
“Yeah, they’re definitely going to feel the need to support the manufacturing sector — that’s the one with the most skin in the game. But there are other sectors that could also be hit hard. Take construction, for example. The current economic uncertainty is likely to impact industrial construction, and possibly housing construction too. That might be a sector that flies under the radar a bit, even though it’s facing real challenges. Then, there’s the transportation and communications sector — a lot of economic activity depends on moving goods back and forth between the United States and Canada. That cross-border movement will likely be heavily affected, and that impact could ripple across a number of industries. I don’t think we’ve seen much yet on this front, trade in financial services is a big part of Ontario’s economy. Right now, the focus has been on tariffs — steel, aluminum, autos. But I wonder if there’s anything coming on the financial services side. I hope that it stays very quiet.”
How worried should we be, given that Mr. Ford is saying they’ll need to plunge billions into the economy, and we were already near balance the last time the government updated us? How concerned should we be about recovery, especially in light of whatever new spending they’re planning?
“Yeah, I think there’s two things. I think it’s hard to separate just the deficit from what you’re spending it on. If it’s spent on things that are going to help support long-term prosperity, that to me is more forgivable — or more acceptable — than blowing a big amount of money on things that aren’t going to do that. It’s hard not to talk about the Highway 413 tunnel. I’m hoping that they don’t have any money put aside for that because it’s a nutty idea. I’d rather see them invest money, for example, in post-secondary education, which I think is critical and is really suffering in the province.
The Ford government has done great things for the skilled trades, and that’s good economic policy. It’s good for the economy, and good for big chunks of the labour force — people can build great careers in that space. But there’s more to a modern economy than just the trades. We need engineers, doctors, nurses, project planners, tech people. They come from the college and university system, and it’s really struggling. I don’t expect them to change their view on that right now, but I wish they would.”
This Q+A was edited for length and clarity.
— The House is in session. Here’s what’s on the schedule next week:
— A quiet week ahead on the committee circuit.
— Public consultations on Bill 2 are set for May 22 and 26, with Bill 5 on May 27. The deadline to make a submission is near.
— The Ford government has struck a new cabinet working group on emergency management. Chaired by Jill Dunlop, it’ll provide “strategic advice” to cabinet. Here’s the who’s who:
— Paul Calandra is standing in for Natalia Kusendova-Bashta as long-term care minister. In January, she welcomed a baby boy (who made a legislative cameo in April).
— Fundraising watch: Ana Bailão, the runner-up in Toronto’s last mayoral race, and Rob Cerjanec are headlining a $500-a-ticket fundraiser on Thursday “in support of the Ajax Provincial Liberal Association.”
Seen: Premier Ford was in Caledon for Mayor Groves’ yearly gala. Health Minister (and local MPP) Sylvia Jones, Housing Minister Rob Flack and Attorney General Doug Downey joined Ford. It was a full house, according to two guests — and word is the fundraiser raked in close to $700,000.
— On Wednesday, Ford spoke with Pete Hoekstra, the United States’ ambassador to Canada.
— Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will deliver his annual address to the Empire Club on Monday. A ticket is $119-a-meal.
— Welcome Leo XIV: In government and opposition, leaders are welcoming Pope Leo XIV.
— Bill 11, More Convenient Care Act — If passed, the bill would establish a “framework” for the province’s healthcare system. It’ll modernize the provincial electronic health record, authorize nurse practitioners to handle mandatory blood test forms, re-evaluate ambulance standards and expand the top doctor’s authority to better sync with local health units.
— Bill 12, Cutting Taxes on Small Businesses Act — Introduced by Stephanie Bowman, the bill, if passed, would boost the small business deduction rate from 8.3 per cent to 9.9 per cent, with a higher income ceiling of $600,000.
— Bill 13, Primary Care Act — The bill would, if passed, establish the Ford government’s “vision” for primary care. Minister Jones would be required to prepare an annual report describing how the government is working to achieve the system’s objectives.
— Bill 14, Support for Seniors and Caregivers Act — If passed, the bill would require all long-term care homes to have an organized program for dementia care, expand obligations to respect residents’ cultural, linguistic, religious and spiritual needs and introduce tougher penalties — and prosecutions — for abuse or neglect.
— Bill 15, Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month Act — The bill, introduced by Lucille Collard, would, if passed, proclaim October as Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month.
— Bill 16, Sacred Spaces, Safe Places Act — John Fraser’s bill, which he tabled a second time, would establish safety zones around places of worship.
— Second reading for Bill 6, Bill 10 and Bill 11 continued this week.
— Bill 5 is en route to the Standing Committee on the Interior.
— Opposition Day #2 was voted down, with 78 against and 14 in favour. It called on the Ford government to cut the tax rate for the second income tax bracket from 9.15 per cent to 7.15 per cent, eliminate the provincial portion of the HST on home heating and hydro bills and halve the small business tax rate.
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— A provincial council sit-down is on deck for top Liberal brass later this month, where they’ll hear from Bonnie Crombie — who is set to face a leadership review in the fall — and participate in a post-election debrief.
According to the memo: The provincial council, including riding association presidents, the executive and members of the Young Liberals and Women’s Commission, will meet at the Chestnut Conference Centre in Toronto on May 31 (if you’re attending via Zoom, it’s $20-a-ticket).
Crombie and president Kathryn McGarry will speak. Later, the campaign debrief team, which we’re told is led by ex-candidate David Morris, will present to council. They’ll also take part in a “debrief exercise.”
Expect some to ask what — if anything — actually came out of the last post-election debrief. That report found that many candidates weren’t clear on what running entailed — or what the party expected of them. It zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
What else: Here’s what the executive council is reporting back:
— The party is searching for a new treasurer to replace Tim Shorthill, according to McGarry and executive director Simon Tunstall. He quit over “personal reasons” at the last executive council meeting.
“Tim and the campaign team ran a financially prudent campaign, finishing the campaign exactly on budget. We finished the election in a strong position, with cash on hand, and a manageable plan to pay off our campaign bank loan,” wrote McGarry and Tunstall.
A post-election budget, approved by the executive, will be presented to provincial council.
— “The snap election deprived us of the opportunity to undergo a comprehensive policy development process,” says Fahim Khan, the vice-president of policy, with a plan to “[revitalize] the engagement process with the grassroots members.” “We must learn the lessons from this campaign and chart a path forward that outlines a progressive vision for this province that involves offering an abundance of housing, healthcare service, education, and jobs.”
— Meagan Trush, the vice-president of organization, says she’s working to create “an updated riding health and election readiness strategy” — and there’ll be a “substantial undertaking to ensure every association is fully equipped to engage voters and prepare for the next provincial election.” “
— Since the campaign ended, Taylor Deasley, the vice-president of communications — who was Crombie’s communications director — has been meeting with the campaign team “to get an understanding of where the gaps are and how I can support.” Deasley says she’ll be working with Crombie’s team and the party “to strengthen lines of communication.”
— The party is searching for engagement coordinators, says Geoff Hunnisett, the vice-president of engagement, with a focus on Franco-Ontarian, Indigenous and Métis, rural and small-town, LGBTQ+ and multicultural outreach.
Recall: The provincial council meeting is just one stop on a wider post-campaign debrief tour. As we reported last week, nine regional meetings are set, with a leadership review expected to take place in mid-to-late September.
— Riding-by-riding, the NDP is unpacking their campaign — Hamilton Mountain among them. “Lessons learned and we [will] implement improvements in the coming days, months and years,” said ex-candidate Kojo Damptey.
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 197 new cases — bringing the total to 1,440 since the fall.
34.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas, with Southwestern Public Health reporting 67 new infections since early last week.
— Pressed on the spike, both Premier Ford and Sylvia Jones doubled down on the province’s strategy. Ford said the province is “throwing everything and the kitchen sink” at the outbreak — deploying 150,000 vaccine doses and spending $2 million to promote childhood vaccination.
The province is well-stocked, added Jones. “The education and the work that our public health units are doing is critically important in those communities that are experiencing those outbreaks.”
The opposition’s not buying it. “The government’s approach is clearly not working,” said NDP leader Marit Stiles, calling for a “robust public education campaign on the effective and free MMR vaccine, and a funded, coordinated strategy to support public health units.”
Adil Shamji ripped into Ford and Jones’ handling of the outbreak, saying it’s been all defense, no action. He urged the province to “launch a province-wide vaccination drive, provide regular updates, educate the public, put measles on the legislative agenda, and allocate all the funding that public health units require.”
— One advocacy group says the province should “intensify measles vaccination campaigns while acknowledging the vital role clean indoor air plays in safeguarding the health of all Ontarians against preventable airborne illnesses, like measles, and begin educating on, and encouraging the use of, all the tools currently available to reduce transmission.”
— Another demanded the government stop the “masking of invisible cuts to public education.”
Fund Our Schools — a coalition of education unions — called for increased funding to restore lost resources, immediate action to fix schools and more support for teachers, education workers and students, including smaller class sizes.
Choice quote: “... Education Minister Paul Calandra was accused by his family of taking money from his own dying mother. The Ford government is now doing the same to Ontario school children,” said Andria Babbington, president of the Toronto and York Region Labour Council.
— Soleiman Faqiri’s family is calling on the Ford government to own up to his death and implement the coroner inquest’s recommendations.
A letter, co-signed by his family, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association and other civic groups, called the “use of pepper spray, significant force, and excessive restraints by correctional officers” against Faqiri “unjustified.” They noted that two recommendations — the creation of an implementation group and a new inspectorate — still haven’t seen daylight.
Solicitor General Michael Kerzner’s spokesperson called Faqiri’s death “a tragedy,” but ducked on whether they’ll act on the letter’s punch list.
— Jamil Jivani doubled down on his scathing election night tirade against Ford. “I think Doug Ford owed us the same respect,” his ex-advisor said of Pierre Poilievre’s no-show during the provincial election, “and he didn’t give it to us.” “He can be a bully, and I think sometimes you just have to stand up to a bully.”
— To stop the blue tent brawl, Jivani’s boss is looking to line up a call with Ford.
— Amending policing legislation: This proposal would require all special constables not employed by a police service be formally tied to an employer, create a regulatory framework to allow certain groups of special constables to carry firearms and give chiefs authority — under cabinet-approved conditions — to request assistance from out-of-province entities.
It’ll also allow the Solicitor General to ask the Inspector General to consider interim measures — like suspending a police board member accused of misconduct — and give them the power to act. It would clarify that an Ontario Provincial Police detachment board must be involved in picking permanent detachment commanders.
It’ll align suspension rules with the Criminal Code, regulate how misconduct is disclosed to the Inspector General and allow public complaints about “policies, rules, bylaws and procedures.”
— The province is also seeking feedback on legislation to curb illegal drug activity on private properties.
— Purple stripe, no more: The province is looking to ditch the rule requiring a light purple stripe down the pants of special constable uniforms. The new proposal would allow any stripe — as long as it’s visibly different from those worn by OPP, municipal, or First Nations police. Uniform stripes must match across all constables working for the same employer.
— He panned the plan — now he’s part of it. Adam Vaughan has signed on with Therme Canada, the company behind Ontario Place’s redevelopment.
— Here’s Vaughan making the case for his support.
— The Information and Privacy Commissioner is hunting for answers — under oath — from an ex-Ford staffer over so-called “private” meetings.
— The Ford government is mulling a plan to allow the infrastructure minister to fast-track the development of transit-oriented communities.
— It’s also set to rejig how cities say yes to development projects.
— Two big-name firms have been hired to comb through school board budgets in Toronto and Ottawa.
— The Ontario Power Generation has greenlit construction on Canada’s first small modular reactor.
— Don’t expect the Liberal leader to force a by-election so she could run for a seat.
— John Michael McGrath is wondering whether Trump can destroy Ontario’s film industry.
— Martin Regg Cohn says Ford is triangulating.
— Ford is “right to point out that ’activist judges’ have ’broken’ the justice system,” Brian Lilley writes.
— Tanya Talaga says he’s “running roughshod over the environment and the law” — and it’s all too familiar.
— Tim Gray says the Premier seems to share Trump’s view that “any law that protects water, air, wildlife, cultural values or public safety should be swept away.”
— A boating company will soon zip passengers from Toronto to Niagara in a 30-minute cross-lake ferry ride.
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Looming large over Doug Ford’s post-election budget is Donald Trump.
That is: Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence — and riding high from a rare cold-weather election that doubled as a verdict on the governing Tories’ economic stewardship, Peter Bethlenfalvy’s Thursday blueprint will be all about economic triage.
It’ll be part construction plan, part economic shield. Already, the government has teased a “build more, build faster” budget, while Ford hinted at “a few more billion dollars” to blunt a blow from the trade war. “There’s a time to make sure that we balance, and there’s a time that it might be a few billion dollars more to protect communities,” he said.
Insiders say the budget will stay on-brand. “I think what we’ve seen from the government so far is a focus on growth. That’s why they’ve been cutting back on interprovincial trade barriers. It’s why they’re streamlining some of the province’s most cumbersome regulatory processes,” one said.
“I expect the budget will build on that either with necessary tax measures, or more measures to increase competition.”
Still, how much red ink is Ford willing to tolerate? Can the province climb back to black? We expect the budget to push the path to balance further down the road — but how far? Is this the moment for belt-tightening or big spending?
To weigh in on what to expect, we enlisted Brian Lewis, the province’s ex-top economist-turned-senior fellow at the Munk School.
Here are the highlights of our conversation:
What are you looking for in next week’s budget?
“I’ll be looking for a few things next week. I’ll be interested to see if there’s more to be said about the government’s response to the global trade war. The government has done some things — some useful things, right? They’ve given businesses more time to pay their taxes. They’ve introduced a manufacturing tax credit. There could be more in the budget, so I’d be interested to see what that would be. I think that’s probably going to be front and center in people’s minds — both what the government is going to do to help the people who get hurt by this in the immediate time-frame, and how it is planning to push the economy in some new direction, given that our trade relationship with the United States is in a really dicey situation.
The second will be the financial update. My guess — and I hope to be wrong on this — is that we’re looking at a pretty significant, possibly record-setting deficit, and a long path back to a balanced budget. I hope there’s better financial news in the budget. But given where we were back in the fall economic statement — and that was before Trump, before the weakening growth outlook, before the need to respond to everything that’s happened on the trade front, and of course before the platform promises — all of that probably adds up to a significant amount of red ink in the budget. So I’m looking forward to seeing where things land — and what the government’s plan is to get us back to balance. I’ll be darn interested in that.”
It’s interesting given where we were in November with the FES. I remember we spoke and the province was in a much more comfortable spot.
“Yeah, the previous year was about balanced, right? Normally, you would’ve had your third-quarter financial report in February. Normally, we’d see a budget in March. But obviously, events overtook that — first the provincial election call, and now a federal one. I think the government was well-advised to wait until the federal election was over before tabling the provincial budget, because there could be implications for the province. So I don’t have a problem with the timing per se, but it has been a while since we’ve seen the books. We were within a whisker of balancing the budget in 2023-24. We had a lot of deficit in 2024-25, but it was supposed to return to balance a couple of years after that. So it wasn’t bad — it was an improvement, and it was pretty good news. I don’t think we’ll be looking at that next week. The idea that we’ll have a deficit next year of $1.5 billion — which is essentially a balanced budget — is unlikely. Quebec and British Columbia both tabled record-setting deficits in their budgets. So let’s see the price tag of everything that’s happened since the fall economic statement — it’s going to be pretty big.”
I’m curious — when you’re facing serious uncertainty from the United States and don’t fully know the economic fallout, is this the time for restraint or is it the time to stimulate the economy? How does a government strike the right balance?"
“Oh yeah, that’s exactly it. It’s about striking the balance. I mean, this is the time to make sure you have policies in place to help anybody who gets hurt by what’s happening — that’s the role of government. And yes, that means running a deficit, especially when you’re already in mild deficit territory. That’s kind of textbook economics: you step in early, deploy targeted support, and then pay down the debt later. So running a deficit right now isn’t really the issue. The real questions are: how deep is it, and what are you spending the money on?
Go on.
To your question — yes, there’s so much uncertainty right now about what’s happening on the trade front and what the impact will be. That makes it really hard for governments to know exactly what to do. This is very different from the pandemic, where the problem was obvious — large parts of the economy were shut down, people were losing jobs, businesses were on the brink. It was clear that support was needed fast. This time, it’s much harder to predict. So I think some of the government’s basic steps — like giving people more time to pay their taxes and WSIB premium relief — are smart. My instinct is they may need to set money aside and say: we’re ready to act when necessary. But it’s hard to say exactly what they should do right now, especially because we don’t yet know what the federal government’s response will be.
I expect a budget that speaks to contingency — recognizing that we may need to do a lot, even though we don’t know exactly what that looks like yet. And the responsible thing to do is to build that into the finances: set money aside, so if we need it, it’s there. If we don’t need it, the year ends a bit better.”
If there is new spending — not necessarily stimulus — what sectors do you think the government would be willing to invest in, given the context of tariffs and the uncertainty with the United States? In your view, what would be smart fiscal bets right now?
“Yeah, they’re definitely going to feel the need to support the manufacturing sector — that’s the one with the most skin in the game. But there are other sectors that could also be hit hard. Take construction, for example. The current economic uncertainty is likely to impact industrial construction, and possibly housing construction too. That might be a sector that flies under the radar a bit, even though it’s facing real challenges. Then, there’s the transportation and communications sector — a lot of economic activity depends on moving goods back and forth between the United States and Canada. That cross-border movement will likely be heavily affected, and that impact could ripple across a number of industries. I don’t think we’ve seen much yet on this front, trade in financial services is a big part of Ontario’s economy. Right now, the focus has been on tariffs — steel, aluminum, autos. But I wonder if there’s anything coming on the financial services side. I hope that it stays very quiet.”
How worried should we be, given that Mr. Ford is saying they’ll need to plunge billions into the economy, and we were already near balance the last time the government updated us? How concerned should we be about recovery, especially in light of whatever new spending they’re planning?
“Yeah, I think there’s two things. I think it’s hard to separate just the deficit from what you’re spending it on. If it’s spent on things that are going to help support long-term prosperity, that to me is more forgivable — or more acceptable — than blowing a big amount of money on things that aren’t going to do that. It’s hard not to talk about the Highway 413 tunnel. I’m hoping that they don’t have any money put aside for that because it’s a nutty idea. I’d rather see them invest money, for example, in post-secondary education, which I think is critical and is really suffering in the province.
The Ford government has done great things for the skilled trades, and that’s good economic policy. It’s good for the economy, and good for big chunks of the labour force — people can build great careers in that space. But there’s more to a modern economy than just the trades. We need engineers, doctors, nurses, project planners, tech people. They come from the college and university system, and it’s really struggling. I don’t expect them to change their view on that right now, but I wish they would.”
This Q+A was edited for length and clarity.
— The House is in session. Here’s what’s on the schedule next week:
— A quiet week ahead on the committee circuit.
— Public consultations on Bill 2 are set for May 22 and 26, with Bill 5 on May 27. The deadline to make a submission is near.
— The Ford government has struck a new cabinet working group on emergency management. Chaired by Jill Dunlop, it’ll provide “strategic advice” to cabinet. Here’s the who’s who:
— Paul Calandra is standing in for Natalia Kusendova-Bashta as long-term care minister. In January, she welcomed a baby boy (who made a legislative cameo in April).
— Fundraising watch: Ana Bailão, the runner-up in Toronto’s last mayoral race, and Rob Cerjanec are headlining a $500-a-ticket fundraiser on Thursday “in support of the Ajax Provincial Liberal Association.”
Seen: Premier Ford was in Caledon for Mayor Groves’ yearly gala. Health Minister (and local MPP) Sylvia Jones, Housing Minister Rob Flack and Attorney General Doug Downey joined Ford. It was a full house, according to two guests — and word is the fundraiser raked in close to $700,000.
— On Wednesday, Ford spoke with Pete Hoekstra, the United States’ ambassador to Canada.
— Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will deliver his annual address to the Empire Club on Monday. A ticket is $119-a-meal.
— Welcome Leo XIV: In government and opposition, leaders are welcoming Pope Leo XIV.
— Bill 11, More Convenient Care Act — If passed, the bill would establish a “framework” for the province’s healthcare system. It’ll modernize the provincial electronic health record, authorize nurse practitioners to handle mandatory blood test forms, re-evaluate ambulance standards and expand the top doctor’s authority to better sync with local health units.
— Bill 12, Cutting Taxes on Small Businesses Act — Introduced by Stephanie Bowman, the bill, if passed, would boost the small business deduction rate from 8.3 per cent to 9.9 per cent, with a higher income ceiling of $600,000.
— Bill 13, Primary Care Act — The bill would, if passed, establish the Ford government’s “vision” for primary care. Minister Jones would be required to prepare an annual report describing how the government is working to achieve the system’s objectives.
— Bill 14, Support for Seniors and Caregivers Act — If passed, the bill would require all long-term care homes to have an organized program for dementia care, expand obligations to respect residents’ cultural, linguistic, religious and spiritual needs and introduce tougher penalties — and prosecutions — for abuse or neglect.
— Bill 15, Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month Act — The bill, introduced by Lucille Collard, would, if passed, proclaim October as Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month.
— Bill 16, Sacred Spaces, Safe Places Act — John Fraser’s bill, which he tabled a second time, would establish safety zones around places of worship.
— Second reading for Bill 6, Bill 10 and Bill 11 continued this week.
— Bill 5 is en route to the Standing Committee on the Interior.
— Opposition Day #2 was voted down, with 78 against and 14 in favour. It called on the Ford government to cut the tax rate for the second income tax bracket from 9.15 per cent to 7.15 per cent, eliminate the provincial portion of the HST on home heating and hydro bills and halve the small business tax rate.
HBD to us! We just turned one. A year ago, we launched this weekly on a mission to become the go-to narrator of the politics, policies and personalities at Queen's Park.
Since then, we’ve published dozens and dozens of issues. We’ve covered a ton of news — and broken our fair share of it, too. We launched a new website. Hosted a couple headline-grabbing events. Add a provincial election to the list of things we survived.
Whether you start your Friday with us, scroll through on your commute, or share our stories with colleagues or caucus, your support has helped keep this engine — a small, but mighty one — running.
Thank you for reading. Tips welcome, always.
— A provincial council sit-down is on deck for top Liberal brass later this month, where they’ll hear from Bonnie Crombie — who is set to face a leadership review in the fall — and participate in a post-election debrief.
According to the memo: The provincial council, including riding association presidents, the executive and members of the Young Liberals and Women’s Commission, will meet at the Chestnut Conference Centre in Toronto on May 31 (if you’re attending via Zoom, it’s $20-a-ticket).
Crombie and president Kathryn McGarry will speak. Later, the campaign debrief team, which we’re told is led by ex-candidate David Morris, will present to council. They’ll also take part in a “debrief exercise.”
Expect some to ask what — if anything — actually came out of the last post-election debrief. That report found that many candidates weren’t clear on what running entailed — or what the party expected of them. It zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
What else: Here’s what the executive council is reporting back:
— The party is searching for a new treasurer to replace Tim Shorthill, according to McGarry and executive director Simon Tunstall. He quit over “personal reasons” at the last executive council meeting.
“Tim and the campaign team ran a financially prudent campaign, finishing the campaign exactly on budget. We finished the election in a strong position, with cash on hand, and a manageable plan to pay off our campaign bank loan,” wrote McGarry and Tunstall.
A post-election budget, approved by the executive, will be presented to provincial council.
— “The snap election deprived us of the opportunity to undergo a comprehensive policy development process,” says Fahim Khan, the vice-president of policy, with a plan to “[revitalize] the engagement process with the grassroots members.” “We must learn the lessons from this campaign and chart a path forward that outlines a progressive vision for this province that involves offering an abundance of housing, healthcare service, education, and jobs.”
— Meagan Trush, the vice-president of organization, says she’s working to create “an updated riding health and election readiness strategy” — and there’ll be a “substantial undertaking to ensure every association is fully equipped to engage voters and prepare for the next provincial election.” “
— Since the campaign ended, Taylor Deasley, the vice-president of communications — who was Crombie’s communications director — has been meeting with the campaign team “to get an understanding of where the gaps are and how I can support.” Deasley says she’ll be working with Crombie’s team and the party “to strengthen lines of communication.”
— The party is searching for engagement coordinators, says Geoff Hunnisett, the vice-president of engagement, with a focus on Franco-Ontarian, Indigenous and Métis, rural and small-town, LGBTQ+ and multicultural outreach.
Recall: The provincial council meeting is just one stop on a wider post-campaign debrief tour. As we reported last week, nine regional meetings are set, with a leadership review expected to take place in mid-to-late September.
— Riding-by-riding, the NDP is unpacking their campaign — Hamilton Mountain among them. “Lessons learned and we [will] implement improvements in the coming days, months and years,” said ex-candidate Kojo Damptey.
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 197 new cases — bringing the total to 1,440 since the fall.
34.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas, with Southwestern Public Health reporting 67 new infections since early last week.
— Pressed on the spike, both Premier Ford and Sylvia Jones doubled down on the province’s strategy. Ford said the province is “throwing everything and the kitchen sink” at the outbreak — deploying 150,000 vaccine doses and spending $2 million to promote childhood vaccination.
The province is well-stocked, added Jones. “The education and the work that our public health units are doing is critically important in those communities that are experiencing those outbreaks.”
The opposition’s not buying it. “The government’s approach is clearly not working,” said NDP leader Marit Stiles, calling for a “robust public education campaign on the effective and free MMR vaccine, and a funded, coordinated strategy to support public health units.”
Adil Shamji ripped into Ford and Jones’ handling of the outbreak, saying it’s been all defense, no action. He urged the province to “launch a province-wide vaccination drive, provide regular updates, educate the public, put measles on the legislative agenda, and allocate all the funding that public health units require.”
— One advocacy group says the province should “intensify measles vaccination campaigns while acknowledging the vital role clean indoor air plays in safeguarding the health of all Ontarians against preventable airborne illnesses, like measles, and begin educating on, and encouraging the use of, all the tools currently available to reduce transmission.”
— Another demanded the government stop the “masking of invisible cuts to public education.”
Fund Our Schools — a coalition of education unions — called for increased funding to restore lost resources, immediate action to fix schools and more support for teachers, education workers and students, including smaller class sizes.
Choice quote: “... Education Minister Paul Calandra was accused by his family of taking money from his own dying mother. The Ford government is now doing the same to Ontario school children,” said Andria Babbington, president of the Toronto and York Region Labour Council.
— Soleiman Faqiri’s family is calling on the Ford government to own up to his death and implement the coroner inquest’s recommendations.
A letter, co-signed by his family, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association and other civic groups, called the “use of pepper spray, significant force, and excessive restraints by correctional officers” against Faqiri “unjustified.” They noted that two recommendations — the creation of an implementation group and a new inspectorate — still haven’t seen daylight.
Solicitor General Michael Kerzner’s spokesperson called Faqiri’s death “a tragedy,” but ducked on whether they’ll act on the letter’s punch list.
— Jamil Jivani doubled down on his scathing election night tirade against Ford. “I think Doug Ford owed us the same respect,” his ex-advisor said of Pierre Poilievre’s no-show during the provincial election, “and he didn’t give it to us.” “He can be a bully, and I think sometimes you just have to stand up to a bully.”
— To stop the blue tent brawl, Jivani’s boss is looking to line up a call with Ford.
— Amending policing legislation: This proposal would require all special constables not employed by a police service be formally tied to an employer, create a regulatory framework to allow certain groups of special constables to carry firearms and give chiefs authority — under cabinet-approved conditions — to request assistance from out-of-province entities.
It’ll also allow the Solicitor General to ask the Inspector General to consider interim measures — like suspending a police board member accused of misconduct — and give them the power to act. It would clarify that an Ontario Provincial Police detachment board must be involved in picking permanent detachment commanders.
It’ll align suspension rules with the Criminal Code, regulate how misconduct is disclosed to the Inspector General and allow public complaints about “policies, rules, bylaws and procedures.”
— The province is also seeking feedback on legislation to curb illegal drug activity on private properties.
— Purple stripe, no more: The province is looking to ditch the rule requiring a light purple stripe down the pants of special constable uniforms. The new proposal would allow any stripe — as long as it’s visibly different from those worn by OPP, municipal, or First Nations police. Uniform stripes must match across all constables working for the same employer.
— He panned the plan — now he’s part of it. Adam Vaughan has signed on with Therme Canada, the company behind Ontario Place’s redevelopment.
— Here’s Vaughan making the case for his support.
— The Information and Privacy Commissioner is hunting for answers — under oath — from an ex-Ford staffer over so-called “private” meetings.
— The Ford government is mulling a plan to allow the infrastructure minister to fast-track the development of transit-oriented communities.
— It’s also set to rejig how cities say yes to development projects.
— Two big-name firms have been hired to comb through school board budgets in Toronto and Ottawa.
— The Ontario Power Generation has greenlit construction on Canada’s first small modular reactor.
— Don’t expect the Liberal leader to force a by-election so she could run for a seat.
— John Michael McGrath is wondering whether Trump can destroy Ontario’s film industry.
— Martin Regg Cohn says Ford is triangulating.
— Ford is “right to point out that ’activist judges’ have ’broken’ the justice system,” Brian Lilley writes.
— Tanya Talaga says he’s “running roughshod over the environment and the law” — and it’s all too familiar.
— Tim Gray says the Premier seems to share Trump’s view that “any law that protects water, air, wildlife, cultural values or public safety should be swept away.”
— A boating company will soon zip passengers from Toronto to Niagara in a 30-minute cross-lake ferry ride.
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Looming large over Doug Ford’s post-election budget is Donald Trump.
That is: Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence — and riding high from a rare cold-weather election that doubled as a verdict on the governing Tories’ economic stewardship, Peter Bethlenfalvy’s Thursday blueprint will be all about economic triage.
It’ll be part construction plan, part economic shield. Already, the government has teased a “build more, build faster” budget, while Ford hinted at “a few more billion dollars” to blunt a blow from the trade war. “There’s a time to make sure that we balance, and there’s a time that it might be a few billion dollars more to protect communities,” he said.
Insiders say the budget will stay on-brand. “I think what we’ve seen from the government so far is a focus on growth. That’s why they’ve been cutting back on interprovincial trade barriers. It’s why they’re streamlining some of the province’s most cumbersome regulatory processes,” one said.
“I expect the budget will build on that either with necessary tax measures, or more measures to increase competition.”
Still, how much red ink is Ford willing to tolerate? Can the province climb back to black? We expect the budget to push the path to balance further down the road — but how far? Is this the moment for belt-tightening or big spending?
To weigh in on what to expect, we enlisted Brian Lewis, the province’s ex-top economist-turned-senior fellow at the Munk School.
Here are the highlights of our conversation:
What are you looking for in next week’s budget?
“I’ll be looking for a few things next week. I’ll be interested to see if there’s more to be said about the government’s response to the global trade war. The government has done some things — some useful things, right? They’ve given businesses more time to pay their taxes. They’ve introduced a manufacturing tax credit. There could be more in the budget, so I’d be interested to see what that would be. I think that’s probably going to be front and center in people’s minds — both what the government is going to do to help the people who get hurt by this in the immediate time-frame, and how it is planning to push the economy in some new direction, given that our trade relationship with the United States is in a really dicey situation.
The second will be the financial update. My guess — and I hope to be wrong on this — is that we’re looking at a pretty significant, possibly record-setting deficit, and a long path back to a balanced budget. I hope there’s better financial news in the budget. But given where we were back in the fall economic statement — and that was before Trump, before the weakening growth outlook, before the need to respond to everything that’s happened on the trade front, and of course before the platform promises — all of that probably adds up to a significant amount of red ink in the budget. So I’m looking forward to seeing where things land — and what the government’s plan is to get us back to balance. I’ll be darn interested in that.”
It’s interesting given where we were in November with the FES. I remember we spoke and the province was in a much more comfortable spot.
“Yeah, the previous year was about balanced, right? Normally, you would’ve had your third-quarter financial report in February. Normally, we’d see a budget in March. But obviously, events overtook that — first the provincial election call, and now a federal one. I think the government was well-advised to wait until the federal election was over before tabling the provincial budget, because there could be implications for the province. So I don’t have a problem with the timing per se, but it has been a while since we’ve seen the books. We were within a whisker of balancing the budget in 2023-24. We had a lot of deficit in 2024-25, but it was supposed to return to balance a couple of years after that. So it wasn’t bad — it was an improvement, and it was pretty good news. I don’t think we’ll be looking at that next week. The idea that we’ll have a deficit next year of $1.5 billion — which is essentially a balanced budget — is unlikely. Quebec and British Columbia both tabled record-setting deficits in their budgets. So let’s see the price tag of everything that’s happened since the fall economic statement — it’s going to be pretty big.”
I’m curious — when you’re facing serious uncertainty from the United States and don’t fully know the economic fallout, is this the time for restraint or is it the time to stimulate the economy? How does a government strike the right balance?"
“Oh yeah, that’s exactly it. It’s about striking the balance. I mean, this is the time to make sure you have policies in place to help anybody who gets hurt by what’s happening — that’s the role of government. And yes, that means running a deficit, especially when you’re already in mild deficit territory. That’s kind of textbook economics: you step in early, deploy targeted support, and then pay down the debt later. So running a deficit right now isn’t really the issue. The real questions are: how deep is it, and what are you spending the money on?
Go on.
To your question — yes, there’s so much uncertainty right now about what’s happening on the trade front and what the impact will be. That makes it really hard for governments to know exactly what to do. This is very different from the pandemic, where the problem was obvious — large parts of the economy were shut down, people were losing jobs, businesses were on the brink. It was clear that support was needed fast. This time, it’s much harder to predict. So I think some of the government’s basic steps — like giving people more time to pay their taxes and WSIB premium relief — are smart. My instinct is they may need to set money aside and say: we’re ready to act when necessary. But it’s hard to say exactly what they should do right now, especially because we don’t yet know what the federal government’s response will be.
I expect a budget that speaks to contingency — recognizing that we may need to do a lot, even though we don’t know exactly what that looks like yet. And the responsible thing to do is to build that into the finances: set money aside, so if we need it, it’s there. If we don’t need it, the year ends a bit better.”
If there is new spending — not necessarily stimulus — what sectors do you think the government would be willing to invest in, given the context of tariffs and the uncertainty with the United States? In your view, what would be smart fiscal bets right now?
“Yeah, they’re definitely going to feel the need to support the manufacturing sector — that’s the one with the most skin in the game. But there are other sectors that could also be hit hard. Take construction, for example. The current economic uncertainty is likely to impact industrial construction, and possibly housing construction too. That might be a sector that flies under the radar a bit, even though it’s facing real challenges. Then, there’s the transportation and communications sector — a lot of economic activity depends on moving goods back and forth between the United States and Canada. That cross-border movement will likely be heavily affected, and that impact could ripple across a number of industries. I don’t think we’ve seen much yet on this front, trade in financial services is a big part of Ontario’s economy. Right now, the focus has been on tariffs — steel, aluminum, autos. But I wonder if there’s anything coming on the financial services side. I hope that it stays very quiet.”
How worried should we be, given that Mr. Ford is saying they’ll need to plunge billions into the economy, and we were already near balance the last time the government updated us? How concerned should we be about recovery, especially in light of whatever new spending they’re planning?
“Yeah, I think there’s two things. I think it’s hard to separate just the deficit from what you’re spending it on. If it’s spent on things that are going to help support long-term prosperity, that to me is more forgivable — or more acceptable — than blowing a big amount of money on things that aren’t going to do that. It’s hard not to talk about the Highway 413 tunnel. I’m hoping that they don’t have any money put aside for that because it’s a nutty idea. I’d rather see them invest money, for example, in post-secondary education, which I think is critical and is really suffering in the province.
The Ford government has done great things for the skilled trades, and that’s good economic policy. It’s good for the economy, and good for big chunks of the labour force — people can build great careers in that space. But there’s more to a modern economy than just the trades. We need engineers, doctors, nurses, project planners, tech people. They come from the college and university system, and it’s really struggling. I don’t expect them to change their view on that right now, but I wish they would.”
This Q+A was edited for length and clarity.
— The House is in session. Here’s what’s on the schedule next week:
— A quiet week ahead on the committee circuit.
— Public consultations on Bill 2 are set for May 22 and 26, with Bill 5 on May 27. The deadline to make a submission is near.
— The Ford government has struck a new cabinet working group on emergency management. Chaired by Jill Dunlop, it’ll provide “strategic advice” to cabinet. Here’s the who’s who:
— Paul Calandra is standing in for Natalia Kusendova-Bashta as long-term care minister. In January, she welcomed a baby boy (who made a legislative cameo in April).
— Fundraising watch: Ana Bailão, the runner-up in Toronto’s last mayoral race, and Rob Cerjanec are headlining a $500-a-ticket fundraiser on Thursday “in support of the Ajax Provincial Liberal Association.”
Seen: Premier Ford was in Caledon for Mayor Groves’ yearly gala. Health Minister (and local MPP) Sylvia Jones, Housing Minister Rob Flack and Attorney General Doug Downey joined Ford. It was a full house, according to two guests — and word is the fundraiser raked in close to $700,000.
— On Wednesday, Ford spoke with Pete Hoekstra, the United States’ ambassador to Canada.
— Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will deliver his annual address to the Empire Club on Monday. A ticket is $119-a-meal.
— Welcome Leo XIV: In government and opposition, leaders are welcoming Pope Leo XIV.
— Bill 11, More Convenient Care Act — If passed, the bill would establish a “framework” for the province’s healthcare system. It’ll modernize the provincial electronic health record, authorize nurse practitioners to handle mandatory blood test forms, re-evaluate ambulance standards and expand the top doctor’s authority to better sync with local health units.
— Bill 12, Cutting Taxes on Small Businesses Act — Introduced by Stephanie Bowman, the bill, if passed, would boost the small business deduction rate from 8.3 per cent to 9.9 per cent, with a higher income ceiling of $600,000.
— Bill 13, Primary Care Act — The bill would, if passed, establish the Ford government’s “vision” for primary care. Minister Jones would be required to prepare an annual report describing how the government is working to achieve the system’s objectives.
— Bill 14, Support for Seniors and Caregivers Act — If passed, the bill would require all long-term care homes to have an organized program for dementia care, expand obligations to respect residents’ cultural, linguistic, religious and spiritual needs and introduce tougher penalties — and prosecutions — for abuse or neglect.
— Bill 15, Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month Act — The bill, introduced by Lucille Collard, would, if passed, proclaim October as Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month.
— Bill 16, Sacred Spaces, Safe Places Act — John Fraser’s bill, which he tabled a second time, would establish safety zones around places of worship.
— Second reading for Bill 6, Bill 10 and Bill 11 continued this week.
— Bill 5 is en route to the Standing Committee on the Interior.
— Opposition Day #2 was voted down, with 78 against and 14 in favour. It called on the Ford government to cut the tax rate for the second income tax bracket from 9.15 per cent to 7.15 per cent, eliminate the provincial portion of the HST on home heating and hydro bills and halve the small business tax rate.
HBD to us! We just turned one. A year ago, we launched this weekly on a mission to become the go-to narrator of the politics, policies and personalities at Queen's Park.
Since then, we’ve published dozens and dozens of issues. We’ve covered a ton of news — and broken our fair share of it, too. We launched a new website. Hosted a couple headline-grabbing events. Add a provincial election to the list of things we survived.
Whether you start your Friday with us, scroll through on your commute, or share our stories with colleagues or caucus, your support has helped keep this engine — a small, but mighty one — running.
Thank you for reading. Tips welcome, always.
— A provincial council sit-down is on deck for top Liberal brass later this month, where they’ll hear from Bonnie Crombie — who is set to face a leadership review in the fall — and participate in a post-election debrief.
According to the memo: The provincial council, including riding association presidents, the executive and members of the Young Liberals and Women’s Commission, will meet at the Chestnut Conference Centre in Toronto on May 31 (if you’re attending via Zoom, it’s $20-a-ticket).
Crombie and president Kathryn McGarry will speak. Later, the campaign debrief team, which we’re told is led by ex-candidate David Morris, will present to council. They’ll also take part in a “debrief exercise.”
Expect some to ask what — if anything — actually came out of the last post-election debrief. That report found that many candidates weren’t clear on what running entailed — or what the party expected of them. It zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
What else: Here’s what the executive council is reporting back:
— The party is searching for a new treasurer to replace Tim Shorthill, according to McGarry and executive director Simon Tunstall. He quit over “personal reasons” at the last executive council meeting.
“Tim and the campaign team ran a financially prudent campaign, finishing the campaign exactly on budget. We finished the election in a strong position, with cash on hand, and a manageable plan to pay off our campaign bank loan,” wrote McGarry and Tunstall.
A post-election budget, approved by the executive, will be presented to provincial council.
— “The snap election deprived us of the opportunity to undergo a comprehensive policy development process,” says Fahim Khan, the vice-president of policy, with a plan to “[revitalize] the engagement process with the grassroots members.” “We must learn the lessons from this campaign and chart a path forward that outlines a progressive vision for this province that involves offering an abundance of housing, healthcare service, education, and jobs.”
— Meagan Trush, the vice-president of organization, says she’s working to create “an updated riding health and election readiness strategy” — and there’ll be a “substantial undertaking to ensure every association is fully equipped to engage voters and prepare for the next provincial election.” “
— Since the campaign ended, Taylor Deasley, the vice-president of communications — who was Crombie’s communications director — has been meeting with the campaign team “to get an understanding of where the gaps are and how I can support.” Deasley says she’ll be working with Crombie’s team and the party “to strengthen lines of communication.”
— The party is searching for engagement coordinators, says Geoff Hunnisett, the vice-president of engagement, with a focus on Franco-Ontarian, Indigenous and Métis, rural and small-town, LGBTQ+ and multicultural outreach.
Recall: The provincial council meeting is just one stop on a wider post-campaign debrief tour. As we reported last week, nine regional meetings are set, with a leadership review expected to take place in mid-to-late September.
— Riding-by-riding, the NDP is unpacking their campaign — Hamilton Mountain among them. “Lessons learned and we [will] implement improvements in the coming days, months and years,” said ex-candidate Kojo Damptey.
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 197 new cases — bringing the total to 1,440 since the fall.
34.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas, with Southwestern Public Health reporting 67 new infections since early last week.
— Pressed on the spike, both Premier Ford and Sylvia Jones doubled down on the province’s strategy. Ford said the province is “throwing everything and the kitchen sink” at the outbreak — deploying 150,000 vaccine doses and spending $2 million to promote childhood vaccination.
The province is well-stocked, added Jones. “The education and the work that our public health units are doing is critically important in those communities that are experiencing those outbreaks.”
The opposition’s not buying it. “The government’s approach is clearly not working,” said NDP leader Marit Stiles, calling for a “robust public education campaign on the effective and free MMR vaccine, and a funded, coordinated strategy to support public health units.”
Adil Shamji ripped into Ford and Jones’ handling of the outbreak, saying it’s been all defense, no action. He urged the province to “launch a province-wide vaccination drive, provide regular updates, educate the public, put measles on the legislative agenda, and allocate all the funding that public health units require.”
— One advocacy group says the province should “intensify measles vaccination campaigns while acknowledging the vital role clean indoor air plays in safeguarding the health of all Ontarians against preventable airborne illnesses, like measles, and begin educating on, and encouraging the use of, all the tools currently available to reduce transmission.”
— Another demanded the government stop the “masking of invisible cuts to public education.”
Fund Our Schools — a coalition of education unions — called for increased funding to restore lost resources, immediate action to fix schools and more support for teachers, education workers and students, including smaller class sizes.
Choice quote: “... Education Minister Paul Calandra was accused by his family of taking money from his own dying mother. The Ford government is now doing the same to Ontario school children,” said Andria Babbington, president of the Toronto and York Region Labour Council.
— Soleiman Faqiri’s family is calling on the Ford government to own up to his death and implement the coroner inquest’s recommendations.
A letter, co-signed by his family, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association and other civic groups, called the “use of pepper spray, significant force, and excessive restraints by correctional officers” against Faqiri “unjustified.” They noted that two recommendations — the creation of an implementation group and a new inspectorate — still haven’t seen daylight.
Solicitor General Michael Kerzner’s spokesperson called Faqiri’s death “a tragedy,” but ducked on whether they’ll act on the letter’s punch list.
— Jamil Jivani doubled down on his scathing election night tirade against Ford. “I think Doug Ford owed us the same respect,” his ex-advisor said of Pierre Poilievre’s no-show during the provincial election, “and he didn’t give it to us.” “He can be a bully, and I think sometimes you just have to stand up to a bully.”
— To stop the blue tent brawl, Jivani’s boss is looking to line up a call with Ford.
— Amending policing legislation: This proposal would require all special constables not employed by a police service be formally tied to an employer, create a regulatory framework to allow certain groups of special constables to carry firearms and give chiefs authority — under cabinet-approved conditions — to request assistance from out-of-province entities.
It’ll also allow the Solicitor General to ask the Inspector General to consider interim measures — like suspending a police board member accused of misconduct — and give them the power to act. It would clarify that an Ontario Provincial Police detachment board must be involved in picking permanent detachment commanders.
It’ll align suspension rules with the Criminal Code, regulate how misconduct is disclosed to the Inspector General and allow public complaints about “policies, rules, bylaws and procedures.”
— The province is also seeking feedback on legislation to curb illegal drug activity on private properties.
— Purple stripe, no more: The province is looking to ditch the rule requiring a light purple stripe down the pants of special constable uniforms. The new proposal would allow any stripe — as long as it’s visibly different from those worn by OPP, municipal, or First Nations police. Uniform stripes must match across all constables working for the same employer.
— He panned the plan — now he’s part of it. Adam Vaughan has signed on with Therme Canada, the company behind Ontario Place’s redevelopment.
— Here’s Vaughan making the case for his support.
— The Information and Privacy Commissioner is hunting for answers — under oath — from an ex-Ford staffer over so-called “private” meetings.
— The Ford government is mulling a plan to allow the infrastructure minister to fast-track the development of transit-oriented communities.
— It’s also set to rejig how cities say yes to development projects.
— Two big-name firms have been hired to comb through school board budgets in Toronto and Ottawa.
— The Ontario Power Generation has greenlit construction on Canada’s first small modular reactor.
— Don’t expect the Liberal leader to force a by-election so she could run for a seat.
— John Michael McGrath is wondering whether Trump can destroy Ontario’s film industry.
— Martin Regg Cohn says Ford is triangulating.
— Ford is “right to point out that ’activist judges’ have ’broken’ the justice system,” Brian Lilley writes.
— Tanya Talaga says he’s “running roughshod over the environment and the law” — and it’s all too familiar.
— Tim Gray says the Premier seems to share Trump’s view that “any law that protects water, air, wildlife, cultural values or public safety should be swept away.”
— A boating company will soon zip passengers from Toronto to Niagara in a 30-minute cross-lake ferry ride.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Know what’s in next week’s budget? Will you be at the Grits’ provincial council sit-down? Got a preview of your PMB to share? I want to hear from you — and I’ll keep you anonymous, just like those mysterious sources you’re curious about. We’ll be back in your inbox next week.
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Looming large over Doug Ford’s post-election budget is Donald Trump.
That is: Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence — and riding high from a rare cold-weather election that doubled as a verdict on the governing Tories’ economic stewardship, Peter Bethlenfalvy’s Thursday blueprint will be all about economic triage.
It’ll be part construction plan, part economic shield. Already, the government has teased a “build more, build faster” budget, while Ford hinted at “a few more billion dollars” to blunt a blow from the trade war. “There’s a time to make sure that we balance, and there’s a time that it might be a few billion dollars more to protect communities,” he said.
Insiders say the budget will stay on-brand. “I think what we’ve seen from the government so far is a focus on growth. That’s why they’ve been cutting back on interprovincial trade barriers. It’s why they’re streamlining some of the province’s most cumbersome regulatory processes,” one said.
“I expect the budget will build on that either with necessary tax measures, or more measures to increase competition.”
Still, how much red ink is Ford willing to tolerate? Can the province climb back to black? We expect the budget to push the path to balance further down the road — but how far? Is this the moment for belt-tightening or big spending?
To weigh in on what to expect, we enlisted Brian Lewis, the province’s ex-top economist-turned-senior fellow at the Munk School.
Here are the highlights of our conversation:
What are you looking for in next week’s budget?
“I’ll be looking for a few things next week. I’ll be interested to see if there’s more to be said about the government’s response to the global trade war. The government has done some things — some useful things, right? They’ve given businesses more time to pay their taxes. They’ve introduced a manufacturing tax credit. There could be more in the budget, so I’d be interested to see what that would be. I think that’s probably going to be front and center in people’s minds — both what the government is going to do to help the people who get hurt by this in the immediate time-frame, and how it is planning to push the economy in some new direction, given that our trade relationship with the United States is in a really dicey situation.
The second will be the financial update. My guess — and I hope to be wrong on this — is that we’re looking at a pretty significant, possibly record-setting deficit, and a long path back to a balanced budget. I hope there’s better financial news in the budget. But given where we were back in the fall economic statement — and that was before Trump, before the weakening growth outlook, before the need to respond to everything that’s happened on the trade front, and of course before the platform promises — all of that probably adds up to a significant amount of red ink in the budget. So I’m looking forward to seeing where things land — and what the government’s plan is to get us back to balance. I’ll be darn interested in that.”
It’s interesting given where we were in November with the FES. I remember we spoke and the province was in a much more comfortable spot.
“Yeah, the previous year was about balanced, right? Normally, you would’ve had your third-quarter financial report in February. Normally, we’d see a budget in March. But obviously, events overtook that — first the provincial election call, and now a federal one. I think the government was well-advised to wait until the federal election was over before tabling the provincial budget, because there could be implications for the province. So I don’t have a problem with the timing per se, but it has been a while since we’ve seen the books. We were within a whisker of balancing the budget in 2023-24. We had a lot of deficit in 2024-25, but it was supposed to return to balance a couple of years after that. So it wasn’t bad — it was an improvement, and it was pretty good news. I don’t think we’ll be looking at that next week. The idea that we’ll have a deficit next year of $1.5 billion — which is essentially a balanced budget — is unlikely. Quebec and British Columbia both tabled record-setting deficits in their budgets. So let’s see the price tag of everything that’s happened since the fall economic statement — it’s going to be pretty big.”
I’m curious — when you’re facing serious uncertainty from the United States and don’t fully know the economic fallout, is this the time for restraint or is it the time to stimulate the economy? How does a government strike the right balance?"
“Oh yeah, that’s exactly it. It’s about striking the balance. I mean, this is the time to make sure you have policies in place to help anybody who gets hurt by what’s happening — that’s the role of government. And yes, that means running a deficit, especially when you’re already in mild deficit territory. That’s kind of textbook economics: you step in early, deploy targeted support, and then pay down the debt later. So running a deficit right now isn’t really the issue. The real questions are: how deep is it, and what are you spending the money on?
Go on.
To your question — yes, there’s so much uncertainty right now about what’s happening on the trade front and what the impact will be. That makes it really hard for governments to know exactly what to do. This is very different from the pandemic, where the problem was obvious — large parts of the economy were shut down, people were losing jobs, businesses were on the brink. It was clear that support was needed fast. This time, it’s much harder to predict. So I think some of the government’s basic steps — like giving people more time to pay their taxes and WSIB premium relief — are smart. My instinct is they may need to set money aside and say: we’re ready to act when necessary. But it’s hard to say exactly what they should do right now, especially because we don’t yet know what the federal government’s response will be.
I expect a budget that speaks to contingency — recognizing that we may need to do a lot, even though we don’t know exactly what that looks like yet. And the responsible thing to do is to build that into the finances: set money aside, so if we need it, it’s there. If we don’t need it, the year ends a bit better.”
If there is new spending — not necessarily stimulus — what sectors do you think the government would be willing to invest in, given the context of tariffs and the uncertainty with the United States? In your view, what would be smart fiscal bets right now?
“Yeah, they’re definitely going to feel the need to support the manufacturing sector — that’s the one with the most skin in the game. But there are other sectors that could also be hit hard. Take construction, for example. The current economic uncertainty is likely to impact industrial construction, and possibly housing construction too. That might be a sector that flies under the radar a bit, even though it’s facing real challenges. Then, there’s the transportation and communications sector — a lot of economic activity depends on moving goods back and forth between the United States and Canada. That cross-border movement will likely be heavily affected, and that impact could ripple across a number of industries. I don’t think we’ve seen much yet on this front, trade in financial services is a big part of Ontario’s economy. Right now, the focus has been on tariffs — steel, aluminum, autos. But I wonder if there’s anything coming on the financial services side. I hope that it stays very quiet.”
How worried should we be, given that Mr. Ford is saying they’ll need to plunge billions into the economy, and we were already near balance the last time the government updated us? How concerned should we be about recovery, especially in light of whatever new spending they’re planning?
“Yeah, I think there’s two things. I think it’s hard to separate just the deficit from what you’re spending it on. If it’s spent on things that are going to help support long-term prosperity, that to me is more forgivable — or more acceptable — than blowing a big amount of money on things that aren’t going to do that. It’s hard not to talk about the Highway 413 tunnel. I’m hoping that they don’t have any money put aside for that because it’s a nutty idea. I’d rather see them invest money, for example, in post-secondary education, which I think is critical and is really suffering in the province.
The Ford government has done great things for the skilled trades, and that’s good economic policy. It’s good for the economy, and good for big chunks of the labour force — people can build great careers in that space. But there’s more to a modern economy than just the trades. We need engineers, doctors, nurses, project planners, tech people. They come from the college and university system, and it’s really struggling. I don’t expect them to change their view on that right now, but I wish they would.”
This Q+A was edited for length and clarity.
— The House is in session. Here’s what’s on the schedule next week:
— A quiet week ahead on the committee circuit.
— Public consultations on Bill 2 are set for May 22 and 26, with Bill 5 on May 27. The deadline to make a submission is near.
— The Ford government has struck a new cabinet working group on emergency management. Chaired by Jill Dunlop, it’ll provide “strategic advice” to cabinet. Here’s the who’s who:
— Paul Calandra is standing in for Natalia Kusendova-Bashta as long-term care minister. In January, she welcomed a baby boy (who made a legislative cameo in April).
— Fundraising watch: Ana Bailão, the runner-up in Toronto’s last mayoral race, and Rob Cerjanec are headlining a $500-a-ticket fundraiser on Thursday “in support of the Ajax Provincial Liberal Association.”
Seen: Premier Ford was in Caledon for Mayor Groves’ yearly gala. Health Minister (and local MPP) Sylvia Jones, Housing Minister Rob Flack and Attorney General Doug Downey joined Ford. It was a full house, according to two guests — and word is the fundraiser raked in close to $700,000.
— On Wednesday, Ford spoke with Pete Hoekstra, the United States’ ambassador to Canada.
— Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will deliver his annual address to the Empire Club on Monday. A ticket is $119-a-meal.
— Welcome Leo XIV: In government and opposition, leaders are welcoming Pope Leo XIV.
— Bill 11, More Convenient Care Act — If passed, the bill would establish a “framework” for the province’s healthcare system. It’ll modernize the provincial electronic health record, authorize nurse practitioners to handle mandatory blood test forms, re-evaluate ambulance standards and expand the top doctor’s authority to better sync with local health units.
— Bill 12, Cutting Taxes on Small Businesses Act — Introduced by Stephanie Bowman, the bill, if passed, would boost the small business deduction rate from 8.3 per cent to 9.9 per cent, with a higher income ceiling of $600,000.
— Bill 13, Primary Care Act — The bill would, if passed, establish the Ford government’s “vision” for primary care. Minister Jones would be required to prepare an annual report describing how the government is working to achieve the system’s objectives.
— Bill 14, Support for Seniors and Caregivers Act — If passed, the bill would require all long-term care homes to have an organized program for dementia care, expand obligations to respect residents’ cultural, linguistic, religious and spiritual needs and introduce tougher penalties — and prosecutions — for abuse or neglect.
— Bill 15, Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month Act — The bill, introduced by Lucille Collard, would, if passed, proclaim October as Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month.
— Bill 16, Sacred Spaces, Safe Places Act — John Fraser’s bill, which he tabled a second time, would establish safety zones around places of worship.
— Second reading for Bill 6, Bill 10 and Bill 11 continued this week.
— Bill 5 is en route to the Standing Committee on the Interior.
— Opposition Day #2 was voted down, with 78 against and 14 in favour. It called on the Ford government to cut the tax rate for the second income tax bracket from 9.15 per cent to 7.15 per cent, eliminate the provincial portion of the HST on home heating and hydro bills and halve the small business tax rate.
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— A provincial council sit-down is on deck for top Liberal brass later this month, where they’ll hear from Bonnie Crombie — who is set to face a leadership review in the fall — and participate in a post-election debrief.
According to the memo: The provincial council, including riding association presidents, the executive and members of the Young Liberals and Women’s Commission, will meet at the Chestnut Conference Centre in Toronto on May 31 (if you’re attending via Zoom, it’s $20-a-ticket).
Crombie and president Kathryn McGarry will speak. Later, the campaign debrief team, which we’re told is led by ex-candidate David Morris, will present to council. They’ll also take part in a “debrief exercise.”
Expect some to ask what — if anything — actually came out of the last post-election debrief. That report found that many candidates weren’t clear on what running entailed — or what the party expected of them. It zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
What else: Here’s what the executive council is reporting back:
— The party is searching for a new treasurer to replace Tim Shorthill, according to McGarry and executive director Simon Tunstall. He quit over “personal reasons” at the last executive council meeting.
“Tim and the campaign team ran a financially prudent campaign, finishing the campaign exactly on budget. We finished the election in a strong position, with cash on hand, and a manageable plan to pay off our campaign bank loan,” wrote McGarry and Tunstall.
A post-election budget, approved by the executive, will be presented to provincial council.
— “The snap election deprived us of the opportunity to undergo a comprehensive policy development process,” says Fahim Khan, the vice-president of policy, with a plan to “[revitalize] the engagement process with the grassroots members.” “We must learn the lessons from this campaign and chart a path forward that outlines a progressive vision for this province that involves offering an abundance of housing, healthcare service, education, and jobs.”
— Meagan Trush, the vice-president of organization, says she’s working to create “an updated riding health and election readiness strategy” — and there’ll be a “substantial undertaking to ensure every association is fully equipped to engage voters and prepare for the next provincial election.” “
— Since the campaign ended, Taylor Deasley, the vice-president of communications — who was Crombie’s communications director — has been meeting with the campaign team “to get an understanding of where the gaps are and how I can support.” Deasley says she’ll be working with Crombie’s team and the party “to strengthen lines of communication.”
— The party is searching for engagement coordinators, says Geoff Hunnisett, the vice-president of engagement, with a focus on Franco-Ontarian, Indigenous and Métis, rural and small-town, LGBTQ+ and multicultural outreach.
Recall: The provincial council meeting is just one stop on a wider post-campaign debrief tour. As we reported last week, nine regional meetings are set, with a leadership review expected to take place in mid-to-late September.
— Riding-by-riding, the NDP is unpacking their campaign — Hamilton Mountain among them. “Lessons learned and we [will] implement improvements in the coming days, months and years,” said ex-candidate Kojo Damptey.
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 197 new cases — bringing the total to 1,440 since the fall.
34.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas, with Southwestern Public Health reporting 67 new infections since early last week.
— Pressed on the spike, both Premier Ford and Sylvia Jones doubled down on the province’s strategy. Ford said the province is “throwing everything and the kitchen sink” at the outbreak — deploying 150,000 vaccine doses and spending $2 million to promote childhood vaccination.
The province is well-stocked, added Jones. “The education and the work that our public health units are doing is critically important in those communities that are experiencing those outbreaks.”
The opposition’s not buying it. “The government’s approach is clearly not working,” said NDP leader Marit Stiles, calling for a “robust public education campaign on the effective and free MMR vaccine, and a funded, coordinated strategy to support public health units.”
Adil Shamji ripped into Ford and Jones’ handling of the outbreak, saying it’s been all defense, no action. He urged the province to “launch a province-wide vaccination drive, provide regular updates, educate the public, put measles on the legislative agenda, and allocate all the funding that public health units require.”
— One advocacy group says the province should “intensify measles vaccination campaigns while acknowledging the vital role clean indoor air plays in safeguarding the health of all Ontarians against preventable airborne illnesses, like measles, and begin educating on, and encouraging the use of, all the tools currently available to reduce transmission.”
— Another demanded the government stop the “masking of invisible cuts to public education.”
Fund Our Schools — a coalition of education unions — called for increased funding to restore lost resources, immediate action to fix schools and more support for teachers, education workers and students, including smaller class sizes.
Choice quote: “... Education Minister Paul Calandra was accused by his family of taking money from his own dying mother. The Ford government is now doing the same to Ontario school children,” said Andria Babbington, president of the Toronto and York Region Labour Council.
— Soleiman Faqiri’s family is calling on the Ford government to own up to his death and implement the coroner inquest’s recommendations.
A letter, co-signed by his family, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association and other civic groups, called the “use of pepper spray, significant force, and excessive restraints by correctional officers” against Faqiri “unjustified.” They noted that two recommendations — the creation of an implementation group and a new inspectorate — still haven’t seen daylight.
Solicitor General Michael Kerzner’s spokesperson called Faqiri’s death “a tragedy,” but ducked on whether they’ll act on the letter’s punch list.
— Jamil Jivani doubled down on his scathing election night tirade against Ford. “I think Doug Ford owed us the same respect,” his ex-advisor said of Pierre Poilievre’s no-show during the provincial election, “and he didn’t give it to us.” “He can be a bully, and I think sometimes you just have to stand up to a bully.”
— To stop the blue tent brawl, Jivani’s boss is looking to line up a call with Ford.
— Amending policing legislation: This proposal would require all special constables not employed by a police service be formally tied to an employer, create a regulatory framework to allow certain groups of special constables to carry firearms and give chiefs authority — under cabinet-approved conditions — to request assistance from out-of-province entities.
It’ll also allow the Solicitor General to ask the Inspector General to consider interim measures — like suspending a police board member accused of misconduct — and give them the power to act. It would clarify that an Ontario Provincial Police detachment board must be involved in picking permanent detachment commanders.
It’ll align suspension rules with the Criminal Code, regulate how misconduct is disclosed to the Inspector General and allow public complaints about “policies, rules, bylaws and procedures.”
— The province is also seeking feedback on legislation to curb illegal drug activity on private properties.
— Purple stripe, no more: The province is looking to ditch the rule requiring a light purple stripe down the pants of special constable uniforms. The new proposal would allow any stripe — as long as it’s visibly different from those worn by OPP, municipal, or First Nations police. Uniform stripes must match across all constables working for the same employer.
— He panned the plan — now he’s part of it. Adam Vaughan has signed on with Therme Canada, the company behind Ontario Place’s redevelopment.
— Here’s Vaughan making the case for his support.
— The Information and Privacy Commissioner is hunting for answers — under oath — from an ex-Ford staffer over so-called “private” meetings.
— The Ford government is mulling a plan to allow the infrastructure minister to fast-track the development of transit-oriented communities.
— It’s also set to rejig how cities say yes to development projects.
— Two big-name firms have been hired to comb through school board budgets in Toronto and Ottawa.
— The Ontario Power Generation has greenlit construction on Canada’s first small modular reactor.
— Don’t expect the Liberal leader to force a by-election so she could run for a seat.
— John Michael McGrath is wondering whether Trump can destroy Ontario’s film industry.
— Martin Regg Cohn says Ford is triangulating.
— Ford is “right to point out that ’activist judges’ have ’broken’ the justice system,” Brian Lilley writes.
— Tanya Talaga says he’s “running roughshod over the environment and the law” — and it’s all too familiar.
— Tim Gray says the Premier seems to share Trump’s view that “any law that protects water, air, wildlife, cultural values or public safety should be swept away.”
— A boating company will soon zip passengers from Toronto to Niagara in a 30-minute cross-lake ferry ride.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Know what’s in next week’s budget? Will you be at the Grits’ provincial council sit-down? Got a preview of your PMB to share? I want to hear from you — and I’ll keep you anonymous, just like those mysterious sources you’re curious about. We’ll be back in your inbox next week.
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Looming large over Doug Ford’s post-election budget is Donald Trump.
That is: Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence — and riding high from a rare cold-weather election that doubled as a verdict on the governing Tories’ economic stewardship, Peter Bethlenfalvy’s Thursday blueprint will be all about economic triage.
It’ll be part construction plan, part economic shield. Already, the government has teased a “build more, build faster” budget, while Ford hinted at “a few more billion dollars” to blunt a blow from the trade war. “There’s a time to make sure that we balance, and there’s a time that it might be a few billion dollars more to protect communities,” he said.
Insiders say the budget will stay on-brand. “I think what we’ve seen from the government so far is a focus on growth. That’s why they’ve been cutting back on interprovincial trade barriers. It’s why they’re streamlining some of the province’s most cumbersome regulatory processes,” one said.
“I expect the budget will build on that either with necessary tax measures, or more measures to increase competition.”
Still, how much red ink is Ford willing to tolerate? Can the province climb back to black? We expect the budget to push the path to balance further down the road — but how far? Is this the moment for belt-tightening or big spending?
To weigh in on what to expect, we enlisted Brian Lewis, the province’s ex-top economist-turned-senior fellow at the Munk School.
Here are the highlights of our conversation:
What are you looking for in next week’s budget?
“I’ll be looking for a few things next week. I’ll be interested to see if there’s more to be said about the government’s response to the global trade war. The government has done some things — some useful things, right? They’ve given businesses more time to pay their taxes. They’ve introduced a manufacturing tax credit. There could be more in the budget, so I’d be interested to see what that would be. I think that’s probably going to be front and center in people’s minds — both what the government is going to do to help the people who get hurt by this in the immediate time-frame, and how it is planning to push the economy in some new direction, given that our trade relationship with the United States is in a really dicey situation.
The second will be the financial update. My guess — and I hope to be wrong on this — is that we’re looking at a pretty significant, possibly record-setting deficit, and a long path back to a balanced budget. I hope there’s better financial news in the budget. But given where we were back in the fall economic statement — and that was before Trump, before the weakening growth outlook, before the need to respond to everything that’s happened on the trade front, and of course before the platform promises — all of that probably adds up to a significant amount of red ink in the budget. So I’m looking forward to seeing where things land — and what the government’s plan is to get us back to balance. I’ll be darn interested in that.”
It’s interesting given where we were in November with the FES. I remember we spoke and the province was in a much more comfortable spot.
“Yeah, the previous year was about balanced, right? Normally, you would’ve had your third-quarter financial report in February. Normally, we’d see a budget in March. But obviously, events overtook that — first the provincial election call, and now a federal one. I think the government was well-advised to wait until the federal election was over before tabling the provincial budget, because there could be implications for the province. So I don’t have a problem with the timing per se, but it has been a while since we’ve seen the books. We were within a whisker of balancing the budget in 2023-24. We had a lot of deficit in 2024-25, but it was supposed to return to balance a couple of years after that. So it wasn’t bad — it was an improvement, and it was pretty good news. I don’t think we’ll be looking at that next week. The idea that we’ll have a deficit next year of $1.5 billion — which is essentially a balanced budget — is unlikely. Quebec and British Columbia both tabled record-setting deficits in their budgets. So let’s see the price tag of everything that’s happened since the fall economic statement — it’s going to be pretty big.”
I’m curious — when you’re facing serious uncertainty from the United States and don’t fully know the economic fallout, is this the time for restraint or is it the time to stimulate the economy? How does a government strike the right balance?"
“Oh yeah, that’s exactly it. It’s about striking the balance. I mean, this is the time to make sure you have policies in place to help anybody who gets hurt by what’s happening — that’s the role of government. And yes, that means running a deficit, especially when you’re already in mild deficit territory. That’s kind of textbook economics: you step in early, deploy targeted support, and then pay down the debt later. So running a deficit right now isn’t really the issue. The real questions are: how deep is it, and what are you spending the money on?
Go on.
To your question — yes, there’s so much uncertainty right now about what’s happening on the trade front and what the impact will be. That makes it really hard for governments to know exactly what to do. This is very different from the pandemic, where the problem was obvious — large parts of the economy were shut down, people were losing jobs, businesses were on the brink. It was clear that support was needed fast. This time, it’s much harder to predict. So I think some of the government’s basic steps — like giving people more time to pay their taxes and WSIB premium relief — are smart. My instinct is they may need to set money aside and say: we’re ready to act when necessary. But it’s hard to say exactly what they should do right now, especially because we don’t yet know what the federal government’s response will be.
I expect a budget that speaks to contingency — recognizing that we may need to do a lot, even though we don’t know exactly what that looks like yet. And the responsible thing to do is to build that into the finances: set money aside, so if we need it, it’s there. If we don’t need it, the year ends a bit better.”
If there is new spending — not necessarily stimulus — what sectors do you think the government would be willing to invest in, given the context of tariffs and the uncertainty with the United States? In your view, what would be smart fiscal bets right now?
“Yeah, they’re definitely going to feel the need to support the manufacturing sector — that’s the one with the most skin in the game. But there are other sectors that could also be hit hard. Take construction, for example. The current economic uncertainty is likely to impact industrial construction, and possibly housing construction too. That might be a sector that flies under the radar a bit, even though it’s facing real challenges. Then, there’s the transportation and communications sector — a lot of economic activity depends on moving goods back and forth between the United States and Canada. That cross-border movement will likely be heavily affected, and that impact could ripple across a number of industries. I don’t think we’ve seen much yet on this front, trade in financial services is a big part of Ontario’s economy. Right now, the focus has been on tariffs — steel, aluminum, autos. But I wonder if there’s anything coming on the financial services side. I hope that it stays very quiet.”
How worried should we be, given that Mr. Ford is saying they’ll need to plunge billions into the economy, and we were already near balance the last time the government updated us? How concerned should we be about recovery, especially in light of whatever new spending they’re planning?
“Yeah, I think there’s two things. I think it’s hard to separate just the deficit from what you’re spending it on. If it’s spent on things that are going to help support long-term prosperity, that to me is more forgivable — or more acceptable — than blowing a big amount of money on things that aren’t going to do that. It’s hard not to talk about the Highway 413 tunnel. I’m hoping that they don’t have any money put aside for that because it’s a nutty idea. I’d rather see them invest money, for example, in post-secondary education, which I think is critical and is really suffering in the province.
The Ford government has done great things for the skilled trades, and that’s good economic policy. It’s good for the economy, and good for big chunks of the labour force — people can build great careers in that space. But there’s more to a modern economy than just the trades. We need engineers, doctors, nurses, project planners, tech people. They come from the college and university system, and it’s really struggling. I don’t expect them to change their view on that right now, but I wish they would.”
This Q+A was edited for length and clarity.
— The House is in session. Here’s what’s on the schedule next week:
— A quiet week ahead on the committee circuit.
— Public consultations on Bill 2 are set for May 22 and 26, with Bill 5 on May 27. The deadline to make a submission is near.
— The Ford government has struck a new cabinet working group on emergency management. Chaired by Jill Dunlop, it’ll provide “strategic advice” to cabinet. Here’s the who’s who:
— Paul Calandra is standing in for Natalia Kusendova-Bashta as long-term care minister. In January, she welcomed a baby boy (who made a legislative cameo in April).
— Fundraising watch: Ana Bailão, the runner-up in Toronto’s last mayoral race, and Rob Cerjanec are headlining a $500-a-ticket fundraiser on Thursday “in support of the Ajax Provincial Liberal Association.”
Seen: Premier Ford was in Caledon for Mayor Groves’ yearly gala. Health Minister (and local MPP) Sylvia Jones, Housing Minister Rob Flack and Attorney General Doug Downey joined Ford. It was a full house, according to two guests — and word is the fundraiser raked in close to $700,000.
— On Wednesday, Ford spoke with Pete Hoekstra, the United States’ ambassador to Canada.
— Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will deliver his annual address to the Empire Club on Monday. A ticket is $119-a-meal.
— Welcome Leo XIV: In government and opposition, leaders are welcoming Pope Leo XIV.
— Bill 11, More Convenient Care Act — If passed, the bill would establish a “framework” for the province’s healthcare system. It’ll modernize the provincial electronic health record, authorize nurse practitioners to handle mandatory blood test forms, re-evaluate ambulance standards and expand the top doctor’s authority to better sync with local health units.
— Bill 12, Cutting Taxes on Small Businesses Act — Introduced by Stephanie Bowman, the bill, if passed, would boost the small business deduction rate from 8.3 per cent to 9.9 per cent, with a higher income ceiling of $600,000.
— Bill 13, Primary Care Act — The bill would, if passed, establish the Ford government’s “vision” for primary care. Minister Jones would be required to prepare an annual report describing how the government is working to achieve the system’s objectives.
— Bill 14, Support for Seniors and Caregivers Act — If passed, the bill would require all long-term care homes to have an organized program for dementia care, expand obligations to respect residents’ cultural, linguistic, religious and spiritual needs and introduce tougher penalties — and prosecutions — for abuse or neglect.
— Bill 15, Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month Act — The bill, introduced by Lucille Collard, would, if passed, proclaim October as Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month.
— Bill 16, Sacred Spaces, Safe Places Act — John Fraser’s bill, which he tabled a second time, would establish safety zones around places of worship.
— Second reading for Bill 6, Bill 10 and Bill 11 continued this week.
— Bill 5 is en route to the Standing Committee on the Interior.
— Opposition Day #2 was voted down, with 78 against and 14 in favour. It called on the Ford government to cut the tax rate for the second income tax bracket from 9.15 per cent to 7.15 per cent, eliminate the provincial portion of the HST on home heating and hydro bills and halve the small business tax rate.
HBD to us! We just turned one. A year ago, we launched this weekly on a mission to become the go-to narrator of the politics, policies and personalities at Queen's Park.
Since then, we’ve published dozens and dozens of issues. We’ve covered a ton of news — and broken our fair share of it, too. We launched a new website. Hosted a couple headline-grabbing events. Add a provincial election to the list of things we survived.
Whether you start your Friday with us, scroll through on your commute, or share our stories with colleagues or caucus, your support has helped keep this engine — a small, but mighty one — running.
Thank you for reading. Tips welcome, always.
— A provincial council sit-down is on deck for top Liberal brass later this month, where they’ll hear from Bonnie Crombie — who is set to face a leadership review in the fall — and participate in a post-election debrief.
According to the memo: The provincial council, including riding association presidents, the executive and members of the Young Liberals and Women’s Commission, will meet at the Chestnut Conference Centre in Toronto on May 31 (if you’re attending via Zoom, it’s $20-a-ticket).
Crombie and president Kathryn McGarry will speak. Later, the campaign debrief team, which we’re told is led by ex-candidate David Morris, will present to council. They’ll also take part in a “debrief exercise.”
Expect some to ask what — if anything — actually came out of the last post-election debrief. That report found that many candidates weren’t clear on what running entailed — or what the party expected of them. It zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
What else: Here’s what the executive council is reporting back:
— The party is searching for a new treasurer to replace Tim Shorthill, according to McGarry and executive director Simon Tunstall. He quit over “personal reasons” at the last executive council meeting.
“Tim and the campaign team ran a financially prudent campaign, finishing the campaign exactly on budget. We finished the election in a strong position, with cash on hand, and a manageable plan to pay off our campaign bank loan,” wrote McGarry and Tunstall.
A post-election budget, approved by the executive, will be presented to provincial council.
— “The snap election deprived us of the opportunity to undergo a comprehensive policy development process,” says Fahim Khan, the vice-president of policy, with a plan to “[revitalize] the engagement process with the grassroots members.” “We must learn the lessons from this campaign and chart a path forward that outlines a progressive vision for this province that involves offering an abundance of housing, healthcare service, education, and jobs.”
— Meagan Trush, the vice-president of organization, says she’s working to create “an updated riding health and election readiness strategy” — and there’ll be a “substantial undertaking to ensure every association is fully equipped to engage voters and prepare for the next provincial election.” “
— Since the campaign ended, Taylor Deasley, the vice-president of communications — who was Crombie’s communications director — has been meeting with the campaign team “to get an understanding of where the gaps are and how I can support.” Deasley says she’ll be working with Crombie’s team and the party “to strengthen lines of communication.”
— The party is searching for engagement coordinators, says Geoff Hunnisett, the vice-president of engagement, with a focus on Franco-Ontarian, Indigenous and Métis, rural and small-town, LGBTQ+ and multicultural outreach.
Recall: The provincial council meeting is just one stop on a wider post-campaign debrief tour. As we reported last week, nine regional meetings are set, with a leadership review expected to take place in mid-to-late September.
— Riding-by-riding, the NDP is unpacking their campaign — Hamilton Mountain among them. “Lessons learned and we [will] implement improvements in the coming days, months and years,” said ex-candidate Kojo Damptey.
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 197 new cases — bringing the total to 1,440 since the fall.
34.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas, with Southwestern Public Health reporting 67 new infections since early last week.
— Pressed on the spike, both Premier Ford and Sylvia Jones doubled down on the province’s strategy. Ford said the province is “throwing everything and the kitchen sink” at the outbreak — deploying 150,000 vaccine doses and spending $2 million to promote childhood vaccination.
The province is well-stocked, added Jones. “The education and the work that our public health units are doing is critically important in those communities that are experiencing those outbreaks.”
The opposition’s not buying it. “The government’s approach is clearly not working,” said NDP leader Marit Stiles, calling for a “robust public education campaign on the effective and free MMR vaccine, and a funded, coordinated strategy to support public health units.”
Adil Shamji ripped into Ford and Jones’ handling of the outbreak, saying it’s been all defense, no action. He urged the province to “launch a province-wide vaccination drive, provide regular updates, educate the public, put measles on the legislative agenda, and allocate all the funding that public health units require.”
— One advocacy group says the province should “intensify measles vaccination campaigns while acknowledging the vital role clean indoor air plays in safeguarding the health of all Ontarians against preventable airborne illnesses, like measles, and begin educating on, and encouraging the use of, all the tools currently available to reduce transmission.”
— Another demanded the government stop the “masking of invisible cuts to public education.”
Fund Our Schools — a coalition of education unions — called for increased funding to restore lost resources, immediate action to fix schools and more support for teachers, education workers and students, including smaller class sizes.
Choice quote: “... Education Minister Paul Calandra was accused by his family of taking money from his own dying mother. The Ford government is now doing the same to Ontario school children,” said Andria Babbington, president of the Toronto and York Region Labour Council.
— Soleiman Faqiri’s family is calling on the Ford government to own up to his death and implement the coroner inquest’s recommendations.
A letter, co-signed by his family, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association and other civic groups, called the “use of pepper spray, significant force, and excessive restraints by correctional officers” against Faqiri “unjustified.” They noted that two recommendations — the creation of an implementation group and a new inspectorate — still haven’t seen daylight.
Solicitor General Michael Kerzner’s spokesperson called Faqiri’s death “a tragedy,” but ducked on whether they’ll act on the letter’s punch list.
— Jamil Jivani doubled down on his scathing election night tirade against Ford. “I think Doug Ford owed us the same respect,” his ex-advisor said of Pierre Poilievre’s no-show during the provincial election, “and he didn’t give it to us.” “He can be a bully, and I think sometimes you just have to stand up to a bully.”
— To stop the blue tent brawl, Jivani’s boss is looking to line up a call with Ford.
— Amending policing legislation: This proposal would require all special constables not employed by a police service be formally tied to an employer, create a regulatory framework to allow certain groups of special constables to carry firearms and give chiefs authority — under cabinet-approved conditions — to request assistance from out-of-province entities.
It’ll also allow the Solicitor General to ask the Inspector General to consider interim measures — like suspending a police board member accused of misconduct — and give them the power to act. It would clarify that an Ontario Provincial Police detachment board must be involved in picking permanent detachment commanders.
It’ll align suspension rules with the Criminal Code, regulate how misconduct is disclosed to the Inspector General and allow public complaints about “policies, rules, bylaws and procedures.”
— The province is also seeking feedback on legislation to curb illegal drug activity on private properties.
— Purple stripe, no more: The province is looking to ditch the rule requiring a light purple stripe down the pants of special constable uniforms. The new proposal would allow any stripe — as long as it’s visibly different from those worn by OPP, municipal, or First Nations police. Uniform stripes must match across all constables working for the same employer.
— He panned the plan — now he’s part of it. Adam Vaughan has signed on with Therme Canada, the company behind Ontario Place’s redevelopment.
— Here’s Vaughan making the case for his support.
— The Information and Privacy Commissioner is hunting for answers — under oath — from an ex-Ford staffer over so-called “private” meetings.
— The Ford government is mulling a plan to allow the infrastructure minister to fast-track the development of transit-oriented communities.
— It’s also set to rejig how cities say yes to development projects.
— Two big-name firms have been hired to comb through school board budgets in Toronto and Ottawa.
— The Ontario Power Generation has greenlit construction on Canada’s first small modular reactor.
— Don’t expect the Liberal leader to force a by-election so she could run for a seat.
— John Michael McGrath is wondering whether Trump can destroy Ontario’s film industry.
— Martin Regg Cohn says Ford is triangulating.
— Ford is “right to point out that ’activist judges’ have ’broken’ the justice system,” Brian Lilley writes.
— Tanya Talaga says he’s “running roughshod over the environment and the law” — and it’s all too familiar.
— Tim Gray says the Premier seems to share Trump’s view that “any law that protects water, air, wildlife, cultural values or public safety should be swept away.”
— A boating company will soon zip passengers from Toronto to Niagara in a 30-minute cross-lake ferry ride.
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Looming large over Doug Ford’s post-election budget is Donald Trump.
That is: Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence — and riding high from a rare cold-weather election that doubled as a verdict on the governing Tories’ economic stewardship, Peter Bethlenfalvy’s Thursday blueprint will be all about economic triage.
It’ll be part construction plan, part economic shield. Already, the government has teased a “build more, build faster” budget, while Ford hinted at “a few more billion dollars” to blunt a blow from the trade war. “There’s a time to make sure that we balance, and there’s a time that it might be a few billion dollars more to protect communities,” he said.
Insiders say the budget will stay on-brand. “I think what we’ve seen from the government so far is a focus on growth. That’s why they’ve been cutting back on interprovincial trade barriers. It’s why they’re streamlining some of the province’s most cumbersome regulatory processes,” one said.
“I expect the budget will build on that either with necessary tax measures, or more measures to increase competition.”
Still, how much red ink is Ford willing to tolerate? Can the province climb back to black? We expect the budget to push the path to balance further down the road — but how far? Is this the moment for belt-tightening or big spending?
To weigh in on what to expect, we enlisted Brian Lewis, the province’s ex-top economist-turned-senior fellow at the Munk School.
Here are the highlights of our conversation:
What are you looking for in next week’s budget?
“I’ll be looking for a few things next week. I’ll be interested to see if there’s more to be said about the government’s response to the global trade war. The government has done some things — some useful things, right? They’ve given businesses more time to pay their taxes. They’ve introduced a manufacturing tax credit. There could be more in the budget, so I’d be interested to see what that would be. I think that’s probably going to be front and center in people’s minds — both what the government is going to do to help the people who get hurt by this in the immediate time-frame, and how it is planning to push the economy in some new direction, given that our trade relationship with the United States is in a really dicey situation.
The second will be the financial update. My guess — and I hope to be wrong on this — is that we’re looking at a pretty significant, possibly record-setting deficit, and a long path back to a balanced budget. I hope there’s better financial news in the budget. But given where we were back in the fall economic statement — and that was before Trump, before the weakening growth outlook, before the need to respond to everything that’s happened on the trade front, and of course before the platform promises — all of that probably adds up to a significant amount of red ink in the budget. So I’m looking forward to seeing where things land — and what the government’s plan is to get us back to balance. I’ll be darn interested in that.”
It’s interesting given where we were in November with the FES. I remember we spoke and the province was in a much more comfortable spot.
“Yeah, the previous year was about balanced, right? Normally, you would’ve had your third-quarter financial report in February. Normally, we’d see a budget in March. But obviously, events overtook that — first the provincial election call, and now a federal one. I think the government was well-advised to wait until the federal election was over before tabling the provincial budget, because there could be implications for the province. So I don’t have a problem with the timing per se, but it has been a while since we’ve seen the books. We were within a whisker of balancing the budget in 2023-24. We had a lot of deficit in 2024-25, but it was supposed to return to balance a couple of years after that. So it wasn’t bad — it was an improvement, and it was pretty good news. I don’t think we’ll be looking at that next week. The idea that we’ll have a deficit next year of $1.5 billion — which is essentially a balanced budget — is unlikely. Quebec and British Columbia both tabled record-setting deficits in their budgets. So let’s see the price tag of everything that’s happened since the fall economic statement — it’s going to be pretty big.”
I’m curious — when you’re facing serious uncertainty from the United States and don’t fully know the economic fallout, is this the time for restraint or is it the time to stimulate the economy? How does a government strike the right balance?"
“Oh yeah, that’s exactly it. It’s about striking the balance. I mean, this is the time to make sure you have policies in place to help anybody who gets hurt by what’s happening — that’s the role of government. And yes, that means running a deficit, especially when you’re already in mild deficit territory. That’s kind of textbook economics: you step in early, deploy targeted support, and then pay down the debt later. So running a deficit right now isn’t really the issue. The real questions are: how deep is it, and what are you spending the money on?
Go on.
To your question — yes, there’s so much uncertainty right now about what’s happening on the trade front and what the impact will be. That makes it really hard for governments to know exactly what to do. This is very different from the pandemic, where the problem was obvious — large parts of the economy were shut down, people were losing jobs, businesses were on the brink. It was clear that support was needed fast. This time, it’s much harder to predict. So I think some of the government’s basic steps — like giving people more time to pay their taxes and WSIB premium relief — are smart. My instinct is they may need to set money aside and say: we’re ready to act when necessary. But it’s hard to say exactly what they should do right now, especially because we don’t yet know what the federal government’s response will be.
I expect a budget that speaks to contingency — recognizing that we may need to do a lot, even though we don’t know exactly what that looks like yet. And the responsible thing to do is to build that into the finances: set money aside, so if we need it, it’s there. If we don’t need it, the year ends a bit better.”
If there is new spending — not necessarily stimulus — what sectors do you think the government would be willing to invest in, given the context of tariffs and the uncertainty with the United States? In your view, what would be smart fiscal bets right now?
“Yeah, they’re definitely going to feel the need to support the manufacturing sector — that’s the one with the most skin in the game. But there are other sectors that could also be hit hard. Take construction, for example. The current economic uncertainty is likely to impact industrial construction, and possibly housing construction too. That might be a sector that flies under the radar a bit, even though it’s facing real challenges. Then, there’s the transportation and communications sector — a lot of economic activity depends on moving goods back and forth between the United States and Canada. That cross-border movement will likely be heavily affected, and that impact could ripple across a number of industries. I don’t think we’ve seen much yet on this front, trade in financial services is a big part of Ontario’s economy. Right now, the focus has been on tariffs — steel, aluminum, autos. But I wonder if there’s anything coming on the financial services side. I hope that it stays very quiet.”
How worried should we be, given that Mr. Ford is saying they’ll need to plunge billions into the economy, and we were already near balance the last time the government updated us? How concerned should we be about recovery, especially in light of whatever new spending they’re planning?
“Yeah, I think there’s two things. I think it’s hard to separate just the deficit from what you’re spending it on. If it’s spent on things that are going to help support long-term prosperity, that to me is more forgivable — or more acceptable — than blowing a big amount of money on things that aren’t going to do that. It’s hard not to talk about the Highway 413 tunnel. I’m hoping that they don’t have any money put aside for that because it’s a nutty idea. I’d rather see them invest money, for example, in post-secondary education, which I think is critical and is really suffering in the province.
The Ford government has done great things for the skilled trades, and that’s good economic policy. It’s good for the economy, and good for big chunks of the labour force — people can build great careers in that space. But there’s more to a modern economy than just the trades. We need engineers, doctors, nurses, project planners, tech people. They come from the college and university system, and it’s really struggling. I don’t expect them to change their view on that right now, but I wish they would.”
This Q+A was edited for length and clarity.
— The House is in session. Here’s what’s on the schedule next week:
— A quiet week ahead on the committee circuit.
— Public consultations on Bill 2 are set for May 22 and 26, with Bill 5 on May 27. The deadline to make a submission is near.
— The Ford government has struck a new cabinet working group on emergency management. Chaired by Jill Dunlop, it’ll provide “strategic advice” to cabinet. Here’s the who’s who:
— Paul Calandra is standing in for Natalia Kusendova-Bashta as long-term care minister. In January, she welcomed a baby boy (who made a legislative cameo in April).
— Fundraising watch: Ana Bailão, the runner-up in Toronto’s last mayoral race, and Rob Cerjanec are headlining a $500-a-ticket fundraiser on Thursday “in support of the Ajax Provincial Liberal Association.”
Seen: Premier Ford was in Caledon for Mayor Groves’ yearly gala. Health Minister (and local MPP) Sylvia Jones, Housing Minister Rob Flack and Attorney General Doug Downey joined Ford. It was a full house, according to two guests — and word is the fundraiser raked in close to $700,000.
— On Wednesday, Ford spoke with Pete Hoekstra, the United States’ ambassador to Canada.
— Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will deliver his annual address to the Empire Club on Monday. A ticket is $119-a-meal.
— Welcome Leo XIV: In government and opposition, leaders are welcoming Pope Leo XIV.
— Bill 11, More Convenient Care Act — If passed, the bill would establish a “framework” for the province’s healthcare system. It’ll modernize the provincial electronic health record, authorize nurse practitioners to handle mandatory blood test forms, re-evaluate ambulance standards and expand the top doctor’s authority to better sync with local health units.
— Bill 12, Cutting Taxes on Small Businesses Act — Introduced by Stephanie Bowman, the bill, if passed, would boost the small business deduction rate from 8.3 per cent to 9.9 per cent, with a higher income ceiling of $600,000.
— Bill 13, Primary Care Act — The bill would, if passed, establish the Ford government’s “vision” for primary care. Minister Jones would be required to prepare an annual report describing how the government is working to achieve the system’s objectives.
— Bill 14, Support for Seniors and Caregivers Act — If passed, the bill would require all long-term care homes to have an organized program for dementia care, expand obligations to respect residents’ cultural, linguistic, religious and spiritual needs and introduce tougher penalties — and prosecutions — for abuse or neglect.
— Bill 15, Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month Act — The bill, introduced by Lucille Collard, would, if passed, proclaim October as Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month.
— Bill 16, Sacred Spaces, Safe Places Act — John Fraser’s bill, which he tabled a second time, would establish safety zones around places of worship.
— Second reading for Bill 6, Bill 10 and Bill 11 continued this week.
— Bill 5 is en route to the Standing Committee on the Interior.
— Opposition Day #2 was voted down, with 78 against and 14 in favour. It called on the Ford government to cut the tax rate for the second income tax bracket from 9.15 per cent to 7.15 per cent, eliminate the provincial portion of the HST on home heating and hydro bills and halve the small business tax rate.
HBD to us! We just turned one. A year ago, we launched this weekly on a mission to become the go-to narrator of the politics, policies and personalities at Queen's Park.
Since then, we’ve published dozens and dozens of issues. We’ve covered a ton of news — and broken our fair share of it, too. We launched a new website. Hosted a couple headline-grabbing events. Add a provincial election to the list of things we survived.
Whether you start your Friday with us, scroll through on your commute, or share our stories with colleagues or caucus, your support has helped keep this engine — a small, but mighty one — running.
Thank you for reading. Tips welcome, always.
— A provincial council sit-down is on deck for top Liberal brass later this month, where they’ll hear from Bonnie Crombie — who is set to face a leadership review in the fall — and participate in a post-election debrief.
According to the memo: The provincial council, including riding association presidents, the executive and members of the Young Liberals and Women’s Commission, will meet at the Chestnut Conference Centre in Toronto on May 31 (if you’re attending via Zoom, it’s $20-a-ticket).
Crombie and president Kathryn McGarry will speak. Later, the campaign debrief team, which we’re told is led by ex-candidate David Morris, will present to council. They’ll also take part in a “debrief exercise.”
Expect some to ask what — if anything — actually came out of the last post-election debrief. That report found that many candidates weren’t clear on what running entailed — or what the party expected of them. It zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
What else: Here’s what the executive council is reporting back:
— The party is searching for a new treasurer to replace Tim Shorthill, according to McGarry and executive director Simon Tunstall. He quit over “personal reasons” at the last executive council meeting.
“Tim and the campaign team ran a financially prudent campaign, finishing the campaign exactly on budget. We finished the election in a strong position, with cash on hand, and a manageable plan to pay off our campaign bank loan,” wrote McGarry and Tunstall.
A post-election budget, approved by the executive, will be presented to provincial council.
— “The snap election deprived us of the opportunity to undergo a comprehensive policy development process,” says Fahim Khan, the vice-president of policy, with a plan to “[revitalize] the engagement process with the grassroots members.” “We must learn the lessons from this campaign and chart a path forward that outlines a progressive vision for this province that involves offering an abundance of housing, healthcare service, education, and jobs.”
— Meagan Trush, the vice-president of organization, says she’s working to create “an updated riding health and election readiness strategy” — and there’ll be a “substantial undertaking to ensure every association is fully equipped to engage voters and prepare for the next provincial election.” “
— Since the campaign ended, Taylor Deasley, the vice-president of communications — who was Crombie’s communications director — has been meeting with the campaign team “to get an understanding of where the gaps are and how I can support.” Deasley says she’ll be working with Crombie’s team and the party “to strengthen lines of communication.”
— The party is searching for engagement coordinators, says Geoff Hunnisett, the vice-president of engagement, with a focus on Franco-Ontarian, Indigenous and Métis, rural and small-town, LGBTQ+ and multicultural outreach.
Recall: The provincial council meeting is just one stop on a wider post-campaign debrief tour. As we reported last week, nine regional meetings are set, with a leadership review expected to take place in mid-to-late September.
— Riding-by-riding, the NDP is unpacking their campaign — Hamilton Mountain among them. “Lessons learned and we [will] implement improvements in the coming days, months and years,” said ex-candidate Kojo Damptey.
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 197 new cases — bringing the total to 1,440 since the fall.
34.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas, with Southwestern Public Health reporting 67 new infections since early last week.
— Pressed on the spike, both Premier Ford and Sylvia Jones doubled down on the province’s strategy. Ford said the province is “throwing everything and the kitchen sink” at the outbreak — deploying 150,000 vaccine doses and spending $2 million to promote childhood vaccination.
The province is well-stocked, added Jones. “The education and the work that our public health units are doing is critically important in those communities that are experiencing those outbreaks.”
The opposition’s not buying it. “The government’s approach is clearly not working,” said NDP leader Marit Stiles, calling for a “robust public education campaign on the effective and free MMR vaccine, and a funded, coordinated strategy to support public health units.”
Adil Shamji ripped into Ford and Jones’ handling of the outbreak, saying it’s been all defense, no action. He urged the province to “launch a province-wide vaccination drive, provide regular updates, educate the public, put measles on the legislative agenda, and allocate all the funding that public health units require.”
— One advocacy group says the province should “intensify measles vaccination campaigns while acknowledging the vital role clean indoor air plays in safeguarding the health of all Ontarians against preventable airborne illnesses, like measles, and begin educating on, and encouraging the use of, all the tools currently available to reduce transmission.”
— Another demanded the government stop the “masking of invisible cuts to public education.”
Fund Our Schools — a coalition of education unions — called for increased funding to restore lost resources, immediate action to fix schools and more support for teachers, education workers and students, including smaller class sizes.
Choice quote: “... Education Minister Paul Calandra was accused by his family of taking money from his own dying mother. The Ford government is now doing the same to Ontario school children,” said Andria Babbington, president of the Toronto and York Region Labour Council.
— Soleiman Faqiri’s family is calling on the Ford government to own up to his death and implement the coroner inquest’s recommendations.
A letter, co-signed by his family, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association and other civic groups, called the “use of pepper spray, significant force, and excessive restraints by correctional officers” against Faqiri “unjustified.” They noted that two recommendations — the creation of an implementation group and a new inspectorate — still haven’t seen daylight.
Solicitor General Michael Kerzner’s spokesperson called Faqiri’s death “a tragedy,” but ducked on whether they’ll act on the letter’s punch list.
— Jamil Jivani doubled down on his scathing election night tirade against Ford. “I think Doug Ford owed us the same respect,” his ex-advisor said of Pierre Poilievre’s no-show during the provincial election, “and he didn’t give it to us.” “He can be a bully, and I think sometimes you just have to stand up to a bully.”
— To stop the blue tent brawl, Jivani’s boss is looking to line up a call with Ford.
— Amending policing legislation: This proposal would require all special constables not employed by a police service be formally tied to an employer, create a regulatory framework to allow certain groups of special constables to carry firearms and give chiefs authority — under cabinet-approved conditions — to request assistance from out-of-province entities.
It’ll also allow the Solicitor General to ask the Inspector General to consider interim measures — like suspending a police board member accused of misconduct — and give them the power to act. It would clarify that an Ontario Provincial Police detachment board must be involved in picking permanent detachment commanders.
It’ll align suspension rules with the Criminal Code, regulate how misconduct is disclosed to the Inspector General and allow public complaints about “policies, rules, bylaws and procedures.”
— The province is also seeking feedback on legislation to curb illegal drug activity on private properties.
— Purple stripe, no more: The province is looking to ditch the rule requiring a light purple stripe down the pants of special constable uniforms. The new proposal would allow any stripe — as long as it’s visibly different from those worn by OPP, municipal, or First Nations police. Uniform stripes must match across all constables working for the same employer.
— He panned the plan — now he’s part of it. Adam Vaughan has signed on with Therme Canada, the company behind Ontario Place’s redevelopment.
— Here’s Vaughan making the case for his support.
— The Information and Privacy Commissioner is hunting for answers — under oath — from an ex-Ford staffer over so-called “private” meetings.
— The Ford government is mulling a plan to allow the infrastructure minister to fast-track the development of transit-oriented communities.
— It’s also set to rejig how cities say yes to development projects.
— Two big-name firms have been hired to comb through school board budgets in Toronto and Ottawa.
— The Ontario Power Generation has greenlit construction on Canada’s first small modular reactor.
— Don’t expect the Liberal leader to force a by-election so she could run for a seat.
— John Michael McGrath is wondering whether Trump can destroy Ontario’s film industry.
— Martin Regg Cohn says Ford is triangulating.
— Ford is “right to point out that ’activist judges’ have ’broken’ the justice system,” Brian Lilley writes.
— Tanya Talaga says he’s “running roughshod over the environment and the law” — and it’s all too familiar.
— Tim Gray says the Premier seems to share Trump’s view that “any law that protects water, air, wildlife, cultural values or public safety should be swept away.”
— A boating company will soon zip passengers from Toronto to Niagara in a 30-minute cross-lake ferry ride.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Know what’s in next week’s budget? Will you be at the Grits’ provincial council sit-down? Got a preview of your PMB to share? I want to hear from you — and I’ll keep you anonymous, just like those mysterious sources you’re curious about. We’ll be back in your inbox next week.
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Looming large over Doug Ford’s post-election budget is Donald Trump.
That is: Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence — and riding high from a rare cold-weather election that doubled as a verdict on the governing Tories’ economic stewardship, Peter Bethlenfalvy’s Thursday blueprint will be all about economic triage.
It’ll be part construction plan, part economic shield. Already, the government has teased a “build more, build faster” budget, while Ford hinted at “a few more billion dollars” to blunt a blow from the trade war. “There’s a time to make sure that we balance, and there’s a time that it might be a few billion dollars more to protect communities,” he said.
Insiders say the budget will stay on-brand. “I think what we’ve seen from the government so far is a focus on growth. That’s why they’ve been cutting back on interprovincial trade barriers. It’s why they’re streamlining some of the province’s most cumbersome regulatory processes,” one said.
“I expect the budget will build on that either with necessary tax measures, or more measures to increase competition.”
Still, how much red ink is Ford willing to tolerate? Can the province climb back to black? We expect the budget to push the path to balance further down the road — but how far? Is this the moment for belt-tightening or big spending?
To weigh in on what to expect, we enlisted Brian Lewis, the province’s ex-top economist-turned-senior fellow at the Munk School.
Here are the highlights of our conversation:
What are you looking for in next week’s budget?
“I’ll be looking for a few things next week. I’ll be interested to see if there’s more to be said about the government’s response to the global trade war. The government has done some things — some useful things, right? They’ve given businesses more time to pay their taxes. They’ve introduced a manufacturing tax credit. There could be more in the budget, so I’d be interested to see what that would be. I think that’s probably going to be front and center in people’s minds — both what the government is going to do to help the people who get hurt by this in the immediate time-frame, and how it is planning to push the economy in some new direction, given that our trade relationship with the United States is in a really dicey situation.
The second will be the financial update. My guess — and I hope to be wrong on this — is that we’re looking at a pretty significant, possibly record-setting deficit, and a long path back to a balanced budget. I hope there’s better financial news in the budget. But given where we were back in the fall economic statement — and that was before Trump, before the weakening growth outlook, before the need to respond to everything that’s happened on the trade front, and of course before the platform promises — all of that probably adds up to a significant amount of red ink in the budget. So I’m looking forward to seeing where things land — and what the government’s plan is to get us back to balance. I’ll be darn interested in that.”
It’s interesting given where we were in November with the FES. I remember we spoke and the province was in a much more comfortable spot.
“Yeah, the previous year was about balanced, right? Normally, you would’ve had your third-quarter financial report in February. Normally, we’d see a budget in March. But obviously, events overtook that — first the provincial election call, and now a federal one. I think the government was well-advised to wait until the federal election was over before tabling the provincial budget, because there could be implications for the province. So I don’t have a problem with the timing per se, but it has been a while since we’ve seen the books. We were within a whisker of balancing the budget in 2023-24. We had a lot of deficit in 2024-25, but it was supposed to return to balance a couple of years after that. So it wasn’t bad — it was an improvement, and it was pretty good news. I don’t think we’ll be looking at that next week. The idea that we’ll have a deficit next year of $1.5 billion — which is essentially a balanced budget — is unlikely. Quebec and British Columbia both tabled record-setting deficits in their budgets. So let’s see the price tag of everything that’s happened since the fall economic statement — it’s going to be pretty big.”
I’m curious — when you’re facing serious uncertainty from the United States and don’t fully know the economic fallout, is this the time for restraint or is it the time to stimulate the economy? How does a government strike the right balance?"
“Oh yeah, that’s exactly it. It’s about striking the balance. I mean, this is the time to make sure you have policies in place to help anybody who gets hurt by what’s happening — that’s the role of government. And yes, that means running a deficit, especially when you’re already in mild deficit territory. That’s kind of textbook economics: you step in early, deploy targeted support, and then pay down the debt later. So running a deficit right now isn’t really the issue. The real questions are: how deep is it, and what are you spending the money on?
Go on.
To your question — yes, there’s so much uncertainty right now about what’s happening on the trade front and what the impact will be. That makes it really hard for governments to know exactly what to do. This is very different from the pandemic, where the problem was obvious — large parts of the economy were shut down, people were losing jobs, businesses were on the brink. It was clear that support was needed fast. This time, it’s much harder to predict. So I think some of the government’s basic steps — like giving people more time to pay their taxes and WSIB premium relief — are smart. My instinct is they may need to set money aside and say: we’re ready to act when necessary. But it’s hard to say exactly what they should do right now, especially because we don’t yet know what the federal government’s response will be.
I expect a budget that speaks to contingency — recognizing that we may need to do a lot, even though we don’t know exactly what that looks like yet. And the responsible thing to do is to build that into the finances: set money aside, so if we need it, it’s there. If we don’t need it, the year ends a bit better.”
If there is new spending — not necessarily stimulus — what sectors do you think the government would be willing to invest in, given the context of tariffs and the uncertainty with the United States? In your view, what would be smart fiscal bets right now?
“Yeah, they’re definitely going to feel the need to support the manufacturing sector — that’s the one with the most skin in the game. But there are other sectors that could also be hit hard. Take construction, for example. The current economic uncertainty is likely to impact industrial construction, and possibly housing construction too. That might be a sector that flies under the radar a bit, even though it’s facing real challenges. Then, there’s the transportation and communications sector — a lot of economic activity depends on moving goods back and forth between the United States and Canada. That cross-border movement will likely be heavily affected, and that impact could ripple across a number of industries. I don’t think we’ve seen much yet on this front, trade in financial services is a big part of Ontario’s economy. Right now, the focus has been on tariffs — steel, aluminum, autos. But I wonder if there’s anything coming on the financial services side. I hope that it stays very quiet.”
How worried should we be, given that Mr. Ford is saying they’ll need to plunge billions into the economy, and we were already near balance the last time the government updated us? How concerned should we be about recovery, especially in light of whatever new spending they’re planning?
“Yeah, I think there’s two things. I think it’s hard to separate just the deficit from what you’re spending it on. If it’s spent on things that are going to help support long-term prosperity, that to me is more forgivable — or more acceptable — than blowing a big amount of money on things that aren’t going to do that. It’s hard not to talk about the Highway 413 tunnel. I’m hoping that they don’t have any money put aside for that because it’s a nutty idea. I’d rather see them invest money, for example, in post-secondary education, which I think is critical and is really suffering in the province.
The Ford government has done great things for the skilled trades, and that’s good economic policy. It’s good for the economy, and good for big chunks of the labour force — people can build great careers in that space. But there’s more to a modern economy than just the trades. We need engineers, doctors, nurses, project planners, tech people. They come from the college and university system, and it’s really struggling. I don’t expect them to change their view on that right now, but I wish they would.”
This Q+A was edited for length and clarity.
— The House is in session. Here’s what’s on the schedule next week:
— A quiet week ahead on the committee circuit.
— Public consultations on Bill 2 are set for May 22 and 26, with Bill 5 on May 27. The deadline to make a submission is near.
— The Ford government has struck a new cabinet working group on emergency management. Chaired by Jill Dunlop, it’ll provide “strategic advice” to cabinet. Here’s the who’s who:
— Paul Calandra is standing in for Natalia Kusendova-Bashta as long-term care minister. In January, she welcomed a baby boy (who made a legislative cameo in April).
— Fundraising watch: Ana Bailão, the runner-up in Toronto’s last mayoral race, and Rob Cerjanec are headlining a $500-a-ticket fundraiser on Thursday “in support of the Ajax Provincial Liberal Association.”
Seen: Premier Ford was in Caledon for Mayor Groves’ yearly gala. Health Minister (and local MPP) Sylvia Jones, Housing Minister Rob Flack and Attorney General Doug Downey joined Ford. It was a full house, according to two guests — and word is the fundraiser raked in close to $700,000.
— On Wednesday, Ford spoke with Pete Hoekstra, the United States’ ambassador to Canada.
— Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will deliver his annual address to the Empire Club on Monday. A ticket is $119-a-meal.
— Welcome Leo XIV: In government and opposition, leaders are welcoming Pope Leo XIV.
— Bill 11, More Convenient Care Act — If passed, the bill would establish a “framework” for the province’s healthcare system. It’ll modernize the provincial electronic health record, authorize nurse practitioners to handle mandatory blood test forms, re-evaluate ambulance standards and expand the top doctor’s authority to better sync with local health units.
— Bill 12, Cutting Taxes on Small Businesses Act — Introduced by Stephanie Bowman, the bill, if passed, would boost the small business deduction rate from 8.3 per cent to 9.9 per cent, with a higher income ceiling of $600,000.
— Bill 13, Primary Care Act — The bill would, if passed, establish the Ford government’s “vision” for primary care. Minister Jones would be required to prepare an annual report describing how the government is working to achieve the system’s objectives.
— Bill 14, Support for Seniors and Caregivers Act — If passed, the bill would require all long-term care homes to have an organized program for dementia care, expand obligations to respect residents’ cultural, linguistic, religious and spiritual needs and introduce tougher penalties — and prosecutions — for abuse or neglect.
— Bill 15, Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month Act — The bill, introduced by Lucille Collard, would, if passed, proclaim October as Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month.
— Bill 16, Sacred Spaces, Safe Places Act — John Fraser’s bill, which he tabled a second time, would establish safety zones around places of worship.
— Second reading for Bill 6, Bill 10 and Bill 11 continued this week.
— Bill 5 is en route to the Standing Committee on the Interior.
— Opposition Day #2 was voted down, with 78 against and 14 in favour. It called on the Ford government to cut the tax rate for the second income tax bracket from 9.15 per cent to 7.15 per cent, eliminate the provincial portion of the HST on home heating and hydro bills and halve the small business tax rate.
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— A provincial council sit-down is on deck for top Liberal brass later this month, where they’ll hear from Bonnie Crombie — who is set to face a leadership review in the fall — and participate in a post-election debrief.
According to the memo: The provincial council, including riding association presidents, the executive and members of the Young Liberals and Women’s Commission, will meet at the Chestnut Conference Centre in Toronto on May 31 (if you’re attending via Zoom, it’s $20-a-ticket).
Crombie and president Kathryn McGarry will speak. Later, the campaign debrief team, which we’re told is led by ex-candidate David Morris, will present to council. They’ll also take part in a “debrief exercise.”
Expect some to ask what — if anything — actually came out of the last post-election debrief. That report found that many candidates weren’t clear on what running entailed — or what the party expected of them. It zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
What else: Here’s what the executive council is reporting back:
— The party is searching for a new treasurer to replace Tim Shorthill, according to McGarry and executive director Simon Tunstall. He quit over “personal reasons” at the last executive council meeting.
“Tim and the campaign team ran a financially prudent campaign, finishing the campaign exactly on budget. We finished the election in a strong position, with cash on hand, and a manageable plan to pay off our campaign bank loan,” wrote McGarry and Tunstall.
A post-election budget, approved by the executive, will be presented to provincial council.
— “The snap election deprived us of the opportunity to undergo a comprehensive policy development process,” says Fahim Khan, the vice-president of policy, with a plan to “[revitalize] the engagement process with the grassroots members.” “We must learn the lessons from this campaign and chart a path forward that outlines a progressive vision for this province that involves offering an abundance of housing, healthcare service, education, and jobs.”
— Meagan Trush, the vice-president of organization, says she’s working to create “an updated riding health and election readiness strategy” — and there’ll be a “substantial undertaking to ensure every association is fully equipped to engage voters and prepare for the next provincial election.” “
— Since the campaign ended, Taylor Deasley, the vice-president of communications — who was Crombie’s communications director — has been meeting with the campaign team “to get an understanding of where the gaps are and how I can support.” Deasley says she’ll be working with Crombie’s team and the party “to strengthen lines of communication.”
— The party is searching for engagement coordinators, says Geoff Hunnisett, the vice-president of engagement, with a focus on Franco-Ontarian, Indigenous and Métis, rural and small-town, LGBTQ+ and multicultural outreach.
Recall: The provincial council meeting is just one stop on a wider post-campaign debrief tour. As we reported last week, nine regional meetings are set, with a leadership review expected to take place in mid-to-late September.
— Riding-by-riding, the NDP is unpacking their campaign — Hamilton Mountain among them. “Lessons learned and we [will] implement improvements in the coming days, months and years,” said ex-candidate Kojo Damptey.
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 197 new cases — bringing the total to 1,440 since the fall.
34.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas, with Southwestern Public Health reporting 67 new infections since early last week.
— Pressed on the spike, both Premier Ford and Sylvia Jones doubled down on the province’s strategy. Ford said the province is “throwing everything and the kitchen sink” at the outbreak — deploying 150,000 vaccine doses and spending $2 million to promote childhood vaccination.
The province is well-stocked, added Jones. “The education and the work that our public health units are doing is critically important in those communities that are experiencing those outbreaks.”
The opposition’s not buying it. “The government’s approach is clearly not working,” said NDP leader Marit Stiles, calling for a “robust public education campaign on the effective and free MMR vaccine, and a funded, coordinated strategy to support public health units.”
Adil Shamji ripped into Ford and Jones’ handling of the outbreak, saying it’s been all defense, no action. He urged the province to “launch a province-wide vaccination drive, provide regular updates, educate the public, put measles on the legislative agenda, and allocate all the funding that public health units require.”
— One advocacy group says the province should “intensify measles vaccination campaigns while acknowledging the vital role clean indoor air plays in safeguarding the health of all Ontarians against preventable airborne illnesses, like measles, and begin educating on, and encouraging the use of, all the tools currently available to reduce transmission.”
— Another demanded the government stop the “masking of invisible cuts to public education.”
Fund Our Schools — a coalition of education unions — called for increased funding to restore lost resources, immediate action to fix schools and more support for teachers, education workers and students, including smaller class sizes.
Choice quote: “... Education Minister Paul Calandra was accused by his family of taking money from his own dying mother. The Ford government is now doing the same to Ontario school children,” said Andria Babbington, president of the Toronto and York Region Labour Council.
— Soleiman Faqiri’s family is calling on the Ford government to own up to his death and implement the coroner inquest’s recommendations.
A letter, co-signed by his family, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association and other civic groups, called the “use of pepper spray, significant force, and excessive restraints by correctional officers” against Faqiri “unjustified.” They noted that two recommendations — the creation of an implementation group and a new inspectorate — still haven’t seen daylight.
Solicitor General Michael Kerzner’s spokesperson called Faqiri’s death “a tragedy,” but ducked on whether they’ll act on the letter’s punch list.
— Jamil Jivani doubled down on his scathing election night tirade against Ford. “I think Doug Ford owed us the same respect,” his ex-advisor said of Pierre Poilievre’s no-show during the provincial election, “and he didn’t give it to us.” “He can be a bully, and I think sometimes you just have to stand up to a bully.”
— To stop the blue tent brawl, Jivani’s boss is looking to line up a call with Ford.
— Amending policing legislation: This proposal would require all special constables not employed by a police service be formally tied to an employer, create a regulatory framework to allow certain groups of special constables to carry firearms and give chiefs authority — under cabinet-approved conditions — to request assistance from out-of-province entities.
It’ll also allow the Solicitor General to ask the Inspector General to consider interim measures — like suspending a police board member accused of misconduct — and give them the power to act. It would clarify that an Ontario Provincial Police detachment board must be involved in picking permanent detachment commanders.
It’ll align suspension rules with the Criminal Code, regulate how misconduct is disclosed to the Inspector General and allow public complaints about “policies, rules, bylaws and procedures.”
— The province is also seeking feedback on legislation to curb illegal drug activity on private properties.
— Purple stripe, no more: The province is looking to ditch the rule requiring a light purple stripe down the pants of special constable uniforms. The new proposal would allow any stripe — as long as it’s visibly different from those worn by OPP, municipal, or First Nations police. Uniform stripes must match across all constables working for the same employer.
— He panned the plan — now he’s part of it. Adam Vaughan has signed on with Therme Canada, the company behind Ontario Place’s redevelopment.
— Here’s Vaughan making the case for his support.
— The Information and Privacy Commissioner is hunting for answers — under oath — from an ex-Ford staffer over so-called “private” meetings.
— The Ford government is mulling a plan to allow the infrastructure minister to fast-track the development of transit-oriented communities.
— It’s also set to rejig how cities say yes to development projects.
— Two big-name firms have been hired to comb through school board budgets in Toronto and Ottawa.
— The Ontario Power Generation has greenlit construction on Canada’s first small modular reactor.
— Don’t expect the Liberal leader to force a by-election so she could run for a seat.
— John Michael McGrath is wondering whether Trump can destroy Ontario’s film industry.
— Martin Regg Cohn says Ford is triangulating.
— Ford is “right to point out that ’activist judges’ have ’broken’ the justice system,” Brian Lilley writes.
— Tanya Talaga says he’s “running roughshod over the environment and the law” — and it’s all too familiar.
— Tim Gray says the Premier seems to share Trump’s view that “any law that protects water, air, wildlife, cultural values or public safety should be swept away.”
— A boating company will soon zip passengers from Toronto to Niagara in a 30-minute cross-lake ferry ride.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Know what’s in next week’s budget? Will you be at the Grits’ provincial council sit-down? Got a preview of your PMB to share? I want to hear from you — and I’ll keep you anonymous, just like those mysterious sources you’re curious about. We’ll be back in your inbox next week.
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Looming large over Doug Ford’s post-election budget is Donald Trump.
That is: Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence — and riding high from a rare cold-weather election that doubled as a verdict on the governing Tories’ economic stewardship, Peter Bethlenfalvy’s Thursday blueprint will be all about economic triage.
It’ll be part construction plan, part economic shield. Already, the government has teased a “build more, build faster” budget, while Ford hinted at “a few more billion dollars” to blunt a blow from the trade war. “There’s a time to make sure that we balance, and there’s a time that it might be a few billion dollars more to protect communities,” he said.
Insiders say the budget will stay on-brand. “I think what we’ve seen from the government so far is a focus on growth. That’s why they’ve been cutting back on interprovincial trade barriers. It’s why they’re streamlining some of the province’s most cumbersome regulatory processes,” one said.
“I expect the budget will build on that either with necessary tax measures, or more measures to increase competition.”
Still, how much red ink is Ford willing to tolerate? Can the province climb back to black? We expect the budget to push the path to balance further down the road — but how far? Is this the moment for belt-tightening or big spending?
To weigh in on what to expect, we enlisted Brian Lewis, the province’s ex-top economist-turned-senior fellow at the Munk School.
Here are the highlights of our conversation:
What are you looking for in next week’s budget?
“I’ll be looking for a few things next week. I’ll be interested to see if there’s more to be said about the government’s response to the global trade war. The government has done some things — some useful things, right? They’ve given businesses more time to pay their taxes. They’ve introduced a manufacturing tax credit. There could be more in the budget, so I’d be interested to see what that would be. I think that’s probably going to be front and center in people’s minds — both what the government is going to do to help the people who get hurt by this in the immediate time-frame, and how it is planning to push the economy in some new direction, given that our trade relationship with the United States is in a really dicey situation.
The second will be the financial update. My guess — and I hope to be wrong on this — is that we’re looking at a pretty significant, possibly record-setting deficit, and a long path back to a balanced budget. I hope there’s better financial news in the budget. But given where we were back in the fall economic statement — and that was before Trump, before the weakening growth outlook, before the need to respond to everything that’s happened on the trade front, and of course before the platform promises — all of that probably adds up to a significant amount of red ink in the budget. So I’m looking forward to seeing where things land — and what the government’s plan is to get us back to balance. I’ll be darn interested in that.”
It’s interesting given where we were in November with the FES. I remember we spoke and the province was in a much more comfortable spot.
“Yeah, the previous year was about balanced, right? Normally, you would’ve had your third-quarter financial report in February. Normally, we’d see a budget in March. But obviously, events overtook that — first the provincial election call, and now a federal one. I think the government was well-advised to wait until the federal election was over before tabling the provincial budget, because there could be implications for the province. So I don’t have a problem with the timing per se, but it has been a while since we’ve seen the books. We were within a whisker of balancing the budget in 2023-24. We had a lot of deficit in 2024-25, but it was supposed to return to balance a couple of years after that. So it wasn’t bad — it was an improvement, and it was pretty good news. I don’t think we’ll be looking at that next week. The idea that we’ll have a deficit next year of $1.5 billion — which is essentially a balanced budget — is unlikely. Quebec and British Columbia both tabled record-setting deficits in their budgets. So let’s see the price tag of everything that’s happened since the fall economic statement — it’s going to be pretty big.”
I’m curious — when you’re facing serious uncertainty from the United States and don’t fully know the economic fallout, is this the time for restraint or is it the time to stimulate the economy? How does a government strike the right balance?"
“Oh yeah, that’s exactly it. It’s about striking the balance. I mean, this is the time to make sure you have policies in place to help anybody who gets hurt by what’s happening — that’s the role of government. And yes, that means running a deficit, especially when you’re already in mild deficit territory. That’s kind of textbook economics: you step in early, deploy targeted support, and then pay down the debt later. So running a deficit right now isn’t really the issue. The real questions are: how deep is it, and what are you spending the money on?
Go on.
To your question — yes, there’s so much uncertainty right now about what’s happening on the trade front and what the impact will be. That makes it really hard for governments to know exactly what to do. This is very different from the pandemic, where the problem was obvious — large parts of the economy were shut down, people were losing jobs, businesses were on the brink. It was clear that support was needed fast. This time, it’s much harder to predict. So I think some of the government’s basic steps — like giving people more time to pay their taxes and WSIB premium relief — are smart. My instinct is they may need to set money aside and say: we’re ready to act when necessary. But it’s hard to say exactly what they should do right now, especially because we don’t yet know what the federal government’s response will be.
I expect a budget that speaks to contingency — recognizing that we may need to do a lot, even though we don’t know exactly what that looks like yet. And the responsible thing to do is to build that into the finances: set money aside, so if we need it, it’s there. If we don’t need it, the year ends a bit better.”
If there is new spending — not necessarily stimulus — what sectors do you think the government would be willing to invest in, given the context of tariffs and the uncertainty with the United States? In your view, what would be smart fiscal bets right now?
“Yeah, they’re definitely going to feel the need to support the manufacturing sector — that’s the one with the most skin in the game. But there are other sectors that could also be hit hard. Take construction, for example. The current economic uncertainty is likely to impact industrial construction, and possibly housing construction too. That might be a sector that flies under the radar a bit, even though it’s facing real challenges. Then, there’s the transportation and communications sector — a lot of economic activity depends on moving goods back and forth between the United States and Canada. That cross-border movement will likely be heavily affected, and that impact could ripple across a number of industries. I don’t think we’ve seen much yet on this front, trade in financial services is a big part of Ontario’s economy. Right now, the focus has been on tariffs — steel, aluminum, autos. But I wonder if there’s anything coming on the financial services side. I hope that it stays very quiet.”
How worried should we be, given that Mr. Ford is saying they’ll need to plunge billions into the economy, and we were already near balance the last time the government updated us? How concerned should we be about recovery, especially in light of whatever new spending they’re planning?
“Yeah, I think there’s two things. I think it’s hard to separate just the deficit from what you’re spending it on. If it’s spent on things that are going to help support long-term prosperity, that to me is more forgivable — or more acceptable — than blowing a big amount of money on things that aren’t going to do that. It’s hard not to talk about the Highway 413 tunnel. I’m hoping that they don’t have any money put aside for that because it’s a nutty idea. I’d rather see them invest money, for example, in post-secondary education, which I think is critical and is really suffering in the province.
The Ford government has done great things for the skilled trades, and that’s good economic policy. It’s good for the economy, and good for big chunks of the labour force — people can build great careers in that space. But there’s more to a modern economy than just the trades. We need engineers, doctors, nurses, project planners, tech people. They come from the college and university system, and it’s really struggling. I don’t expect them to change their view on that right now, but I wish they would.”
This Q+A was edited for length and clarity.
— The House is in session. Here’s what’s on the schedule next week:
— A quiet week ahead on the committee circuit.
— Public consultations on Bill 2 are set for May 22 and 26, with Bill 5 on May 27. The deadline to make a submission is near.
— The Ford government has struck a new cabinet working group on emergency management. Chaired by Jill Dunlop, it’ll provide “strategic advice” to cabinet. Here’s the who’s who:
— Paul Calandra is standing in for Natalia Kusendova-Bashta as long-term care minister. In January, she welcomed a baby boy (who made a legislative cameo in April).
— Fundraising watch: Ana Bailão, the runner-up in Toronto’s last mayoral race, and Rob Cerjanec are headlining a $500-a-ticket fundraiser on Thursday “in support of the Ajax Provincial Liberal Association.”
Seen: Premier Ford was in Caledon for Mayor Groves’ yearly gala. Health Minister (and local MPP) Sylvia Jones, Housing Minister Rob Flack and Attorney General Doug Downey joined Ford. It was a full house, according to two guests — and word is the fundraiser raked in close to $700,000.
— On Wednesday, Ford spoke with Pete Hoekstra, the United States’ ambassador to Canada.
— Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will deliver his annual address to the Empire Club on Monday. A ticket is $119-a-meal.
— Welcome Leo XIV: In government and opposition, leaders are welcoming Pope Leo XIV.
— Bill 11, More Convenient Care Act — If passed, the bill would establish a “framework” for the province’s healthcare system. It’ll modernize the provincial electronic health record, authorize nurse practitioners to handle mandatory blood test forms, re-evaluate ambulance standards and expand the top doctor’s authority to better sync with local health units.
— Bill 12, Cutting Taxes on Small Businesses Act — Introduced by Stephanie Bowman, the bill, if passed, would boost the small business deduction rate from 8.3 per cent to 9.9 per cent, with a higher income ceiling of $600,000.
— Bill 13, Primary Care Act — The bill would, if passed, establish the Ford government’s “vision” for primary care. Minister Jones would be required to prepare an annual report describing how the government is working to achieve the system’s objectives.
— Bill 14, Support for Seniors and Caregivers Act — If passed, the bill would require all long-term care homes to have an organized program for dementia care, expand obligations to respect residents’ cultural, linguistic, religious and spiritual needs and introduce tougher penalties — and prosecutions — for abuse or neglect.
— Bill 15, Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month Act — The bill, introduced by Lucille Collard, would, if passed, proclaim October as Kids’ Online Safety and Privacy Month.
— Bill 16, Sacred Spaces, Safe Places Act — John Fraser’s bill, which he tabled a second time, would establish safety zones around places of worship.
— Second reading for Bill 6, Bill 10 and Bill 11 continued this week.
— Bill 5 is en route to the Standing Committee on the Interior.
— Opposition Day #2 was voted down, with 78 against and 14 in favour. It called on the Ford government to cut the tax rate for the second income tax bracket from 9.15 per cent to 7.15 per cent, eliminate the provincial portion of the HST on home heating and hydro bills and halve the small business tax rate.
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— A provincial council sit-down is on deck for top Liberal brass later this month, where they’ll hear from Bonnie Crombie — who is set to face a leadership review in the fall — and participate in a post-election debrief.
According to the memo: The provincial council, including riding association presidents, the executive and members of the Young Liberals and Women’s Commission, will meet at the Chestnut Conference Centre in Toronto on May 31 (if you’re attending via Zoom, it’s $20-a-ticket).
Crombie and president Kathryn McGarry will speak. Later, the campaign debrief team, which we’re told is led by ex-candidate David Morris, will present to council. They’ll also take part in a “debrief exercise.”
Expect some to ask what — if anything — actually came out of the last post-election debrief. That report found that many candidates weren’t clear on what running entailed — or what the party expected of them. It zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
What else: Here’s what the executive council is reporting back:
— The party is searching for a new treasurer to replace Tim Shorthill, according to McGarry and executive director Simon Tunstall. He quit over “personal reasons” at the last executive council meeting.
“Tim and the campaign team ran a financially prudent campaign, finishing the campaign exactly on budget. We finished the election in a strong position, with cash on hand, and a manageable plan to pay off our campaign bank loan,” wrote McGarry and Tunstall.
A post-election budget, approved by the executive, will be presented to provincial council.
— “The snap election deprived us of the opportunity to undergo a comprehensive policy development process,” says Fahim Khan, the vice-president of policy, with a plan to “[revitalize] the engagement process with the grassroots members.” “We must learn the lessons from this campaign and chart a path forward that outlines a progressive vision for this province that involves offering an abundance of housing, healthcare service, education, and jobs.”
— Meagan Trush, the vice-president of organization, says she’s working to create “an updated riding health and election readiness strategy” — and there’ll be a “substantial undertaking to ensure every association is fully equipped to engage voters and prepare for the next provincial election.” “
— Since the campaign ended, Taylor Deasley, the vice-president of communications — who was Crombie’s communications director — has been meeting with the campaign team “to get an understanding of where the gaps are and how I can support.” Deasley says she’ll be working with Crombie’s team and the party “to strengthen lines of communication.”
— The party is searching for engagement coordinators, says Geoff Hunnisett, the vice-president of engagement, with a focus on Franco-Ontarian, Indigenous and Métis, rural and small-town, LGBTQ+ and multicultural outreach.
Recall: The provincial council meeting is just one stop on a wider post-campaign debrief tour. As we reported last week, nine regional meetings are set, with a leadership review expected to take place in mid-to-late September.
— Riding-by-riding, the NDP is unpacking their campaign — Hamilton Mountain among them. “Lessons learned and we [will] implement improvements in the coming days, months and years,” said ex-candidate Kojo Damptey.
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 197 new cases — bringing the total to 1,440 since the fall.
34.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas, with Southwestern Public Health reporting 67 new infections since early last week.
— Pressed on the spike, both Premier Ford and Sylvia Jones doubled down on the province’s strategy. Ford said the province is “throwing everything and the kitchen sink” at the outbreak — deploying 150,000 vaccine doses and spending $2 million to promote childhood vaccination.
The province is well-stocked, added Jones. “The education and the work that our public health units are doing is critically important in those communities that are experiencing those outbreaks.”
The opposition’s not buying it. “The government’s approach is clearly not working,” said NDP leader Marit Stiles, calling for a “robust public education campaign on the effective and free MMR vaccine, and a funded, coordinated strategy to support public health units.”
Adil Shamji ripped into Ford and Jones’ handling of the outbreak, saying it’s been all defense, no action. He urged the province to “launch a province-wide vaccination drive, provide regular updates, educate the public, put measles on the legislative agenda, and allocate all the funding that public health units require.”
— One advocacy group says the province should “intensify measles vaccination campaigns while acknowledging the vital role clean indoor air plays in safeguarding the health of all Ontarians against preventable airborne illnesses, like measles, and begin educating on, and encouraging the use of, all the tools currently available to reduce transmission.”
— Another demanded the government stop the “masking of invisible cuts to public education.”
Fund Our Schools — a coalition of education unions — called for increased funding to restore lost resources, immediate action to fix schools and more support for teachers, education workers and students, including smaller class sizes.
Choice quote: “... Education Minister Paul Calandra was accused by his family of taking money from his own dying mother. The Ford government is now doing the same to Ontario school children,” said Andria Babbington, president of the Toronto and York Region Labour Council.
— Soleiman Faqiri’s family is calling on the Ford government to own up to his death and implement the coroner inquest’s recommendations.
A letter, co-signed by his family, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association and other civic groups, called the “use of pepper spray, significant force, and excessive restraints by correctional officers” against Faqiri “unjustified.” They noted that two recommendations — the creation of an implementation group and a new inspectorate — still haven’t seen daylight.
Solicitor General Michael Kerzner’s spokesperson called Faqiri’s death “a tragedy,” but ducked on whether they’ll act on the letter’s punch list.
— Jamil Jivani doubled down on his scathing election night tirade against Ford. “I think Doug Ford owed us the same respect,” his ex-advisor said of Pierre Poilievre’s no-show during the provincial election, “and he didn’t give it to us.” “He can be a bully, and I think sometimes you just have to stand up to a bully.”
— To stop the blue tent brawl, Jivani’s boss is looking to line up a call with Ford.
— Amending policing legislation: This proposal would require all special constables not employed by a police service be formally tied to an employer, create a regulatory framework to allow certain groups of special constables to carry firearms and give chiefs authority — under cabinet-approved conditions — to request assistance from out-of-province entities.
It’ll also allow the Solicitor General to ask the Inspector General to consider interim measures — like suspending a police board member accused of misconduct — and give them the power to act. It would clarify that an Ontario Provincial Police detachment board must be involved in picking permanent detachment commanders.
It’ll align suspension rules with the Criminal Code, regulate how misconduct is disclosed to the Inspector General and allow public complaints about “policies, rules, bylaws and procedures.”
— The province is also seeking feedback on legislation to curb illegal drug activity on private properties.
— Purple stripe, no more: The province is looking to ditch the rule requiring a light purple stripe down the pants of special constable uniforms. The new proposal would allow any stripe — as long as it’s visibly different from those worn by OPP, municipal, or First Nations police. Uniform stripes must match across all constables working for the same employer.
— He panned the plan — now he’s part of it. Adam Vaughan has signed on with Therme Canada, the company behind Ontario Place’s redevelopment.
— Here’s Vaughan making the case for his support.
— The Information and Privacy Commissioner is hunting for answers — under oath — from an ex-Ford staffer over so-called “private” meetings.
— The Ford government is mulling a plan to allow the infrastructure minister to fast-track the development of transit-oriented communities.
— It’s also set to rejig how cities say yes to development projects.
— Two big-name firms have been hired to comb through school board budgets in Toronto and Ottawa.
— The Ontario Power Generation has greenlit construction on Canada’s first small modular reactor.
— Don’t expect the Liberal leader to force a by-election so she could run for a seat.
— John Michael McGrath is wondering whether Trump can destroy Ontario’s film industry.
— Martin Regg Cohn says Ford is triangulating.
— Ford is “right to point out that ’activist judges’ have ’broken’ the justice system,” Brian Lilley writes.
— Tanya Talaga says he’s “running roughshod over the environment and the law” — and it’s all too familiar.
— Tim Gray says the Premier seems to share Trump’s view that “any law that protects water, air, wildlife, cultural values or public safety should be swept away.”
— A boating company will soon zip passengers from Toronto to Niagara in a 30-minute cross-lake ferry ride.
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