The budget is out — and it’s bleeding red ink. We have the highlights and the reaction. But before we dig in, everyone’s talking about Nate Erskine-Smith.
— Shut out of cabinet, could Erskine-Smith pose a threat to Bonnie Crombie’s leadership?
The ex-leadership contender lost his cabinet post on Monday, replaced by former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson.
What he said: “I ran again because of the opportunity to make an even bigger difference around the cabinet table and to help fix the housing crisis,” he wrote in a Substack post. “The way it played out doesn’t sit right and it’s impossible not to feel disrespected.”
What he didn’t say: Erskine-Smith — who shelved his plan to exit federal politics — is staying coy: “You never know what the future holds.”
For the most part, on the question of Crombie’s leadership, it’s been crickets lately. But for some discontented Liberals, the snub has reignited the conversation about a post-Bonnie Crombie alternative, with a leadership review set to take place in the fall.
The budget is out — and it’s bleeding red ink. We have the highlights and the reaction. But before we dig in, everyone’s talking about Nate Erskine-Smith.
— Shut out of cabinet, could Erskine-Smith pose a threat to Bonnie Crombie’s leadership?
The ex-leadership contender lost his cabinet post on Monday, replaced by former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson.
What he said: “I ran again because of the opportunity to make an even bigger difference around the cabinet table and to help fix the housing crisis,” he wrote in a Substack post. “The way it played out doesn’t sit right and it’s impossible not to feel disrespected.”
What he didn’t say: Erskine-Smith — who shelved his plan to exit federal politics — is staying coy: “You never know what the future holds.”
For the most part, on the question of Crombie’s leadership, it’s been crickets lately. But for some discontented Liberals, the snub has reignited the conversation about a post-Bonnie Crombie alternative, with a leadership review set to take place in the fall.
The budget is out — and it’s bleeding red ink. We have the highlights and the reaction. But before we dig in, everyone’s talking about Nate Erskine-Smith.
— Shut out of cabinet, could Erskine-Smith pose a threat Bonnie Crombie’s leadership?
The ex-leadership contender lost his cabinet post on Monday, replaced by former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson.
What he said: “I ran again because of the opportunity to make an even bigger difference around the cabinet table and to help fix the housing crisis,” he wrote in a Substack post. “The way it played out doesn’t sit right and it’s impossible not to feel disrespected.”
What he didn’t say: Erskine-Smith — who shelved his plan to exit federal politics — is staying coy: “You never know what the future holds.”
For the most part, on the question of Crombie’s leadership, it’s been crickets lately. But for some discontented Liberals, the snub has reignited the conversation about a post-Bonnie Crombie alternative, with a leadership review set to take place in the fall.
There’s no open revolt, but behind the scenes, two plugged-in organizers say some are already sketching out scenarios for the September vote.
“There’s nothing formal,” one organizer said, adding it’s not just Erskine-Smith loyalists — but “red-blooded Liberals who feel Bonnie misled us on her promise to revive the party.” “We’re brainstorming,” a second said.
(A source close to Erskine-Smith denied any pre-election organizing by his supporters — calling it a “flat-out lie”).
Though there’s “no clear Messiah” to save the party, the organizer explained, Erskine-Smith isn’t a shoo-in. “I want to stress that this isn’t an astroturf to bring in Nate, which some are suggesting. It’s more about tossing out” Crombie, they added. “Ultimately, we’ve had three catastrophic elections as a party, and refuse to learn from our mistakes.”
Both organizers, like other sources, name-dropped Karina Gould, Kamal Khera and Navdeep Bains as possible challengers.
For both, it’s bigger than Bonnie. “We never learned our lessons,” the second organizer said, pointing to the last post-election debrief. That report zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
“The next post-mortem is going to look a lot like the last two because [Crombie] didn’t advance on them,” they added. “Why can’t we recruit good candidates? Why are PLAs drying up like grapes on a vince? Why do we struggle to sell a package that resonates with voters?”
Despite the discontent, those in Crombie’s orbit have insisted to this reporter she’ll be able to hold on — and have framed what a “win” would look like.
“50+1 is the standard,” according to one source. “She got thrown into an election [a year early] and achieved what she set out to do. She restored party status, increased the vote, increased fundraising. Had she won her seat, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.”
As for Erskine-Smith: Asked about a challenge to Crombie, the Liberal leader’s ex-rival said: “It remains to be seen. Who knows?”
Crombie, for her part, shot back with an icy one-liner: “I’m focused on the people of Ontario. That’s where my heart is,” she told reporters. “And you know, that Member of Parliament is really hurting right now, so let’s leave it at that.”
— Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence, the Ford government’s $232-billion budget is out — and it’s bleeding red.
Here’s what you need to know:
— There’s more red. The deficit is now forecast at $14.6 billion, up from $4.6 billion, with most of the $10-billion spike linked to the trade war response.
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— There’s still slow growth. Real GDP is on track to shrink from 1.5 per cent to 0.8 per cent. A 1.9 per cent hike is expected in 2027 and 2028.
The debt to GDP ratio will stay below the 40 per cent target, projected at 37.9 per cent in 25-26, 38.9 per cent in 26–27 and 38.6 per cent in 27–28.
Expect employment growth to take a hit. It’ll increase by 0.9 per cent this year, before slipping to just a 0.4 per cent bump next year. 73,000 new jobs are expected this year, down from the projected 130,000 last year.
— Spending is still up. It will hit $232.5 billion this year, growing to $233.7 billion in 2026-27 and $235.7 billion the year after.
— Brace for a squeeze. Health care spending will hit $91.1 billion — up 2 per cent from last year. Of that boost, $1.1 billion is earmarked for hospitals, covering core funding, targeted investments and surgical spending.
After a $2.6 billion top-up this year, education funding will stall out at $41 billion for the next three. Social services spending will climb to $20.6 billion this year, before freezing at $20.4 billion through 27-28.
Revenue is on track to fall to $220 billion, down $1.6 billion year-over-year, dragged down by weaker corporate returns.
— No relief in sight for slumping housing starts. Against a 1.5 million-home target by 2031, the province is projected to build just 71,800 this year. The pace is projected to slow, with 74,800 new units next year, down from 94,400 forecasted last year.
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— Past the bottom line, here’s what’s also in the budget:
— The Ford government is tearing up the bike lanes on University and Avenue. But here’s the catch: the power to scrap bike lanes is moving from the minister to the legislature — a tweak that could make it harder to challenge in court.
By legislating the bike lane removals instead of leaving it to a minister, the government is hoping to avoid court scrutiny — since laws passed by the legislature don’t have to meet the same standards of procedural fairness. Still, the courts haven’t always played along (one example: Bill 124).
— Are you a cabinet minister? All former cabinet ministers — past and future — will now be an "Honorary Member of the Executive Council.” With it, they’ll get to keep the “Honourable” title, too.
— Priorities, as told by the most repeated words: Debt: 198; Trade: 105; Transit: 90; Tariffs: 83; Education: 52; Deficit: 42; GO: 41; Alcohol: 33; Homes: 31; Healthcare: 29; Wine: 29; Highways: 28; Historic: 19; Spirits: 17; Balance: 8; Carbon Tax: 8; Bike Lanes: 4; Autism: 3; ODSP: 1; Trump: 1.
— How it landed: NDP leader Marit Stiles called the budget a “band-aid” blueprint, with “little hope and no reassurance.” Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie said it was “another painful reminder that Doug Ford doesn’t govern for the people of Ontario, he governs for the few who have his phone number.”
“This budget ignores the fact that people are going to be hurt by the trade war,” added Green leader Mike Schreiner. “We need a budget that actually invests in people.”
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation called the gas tax cut “a clear win” — but slammed the budget as “financially irresponsible” for piling on debt with no repayment plan.
The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities said the budget gives them reason to be “encouraged.” The Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario was on the same page.
The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters thanked the government for taking “decisive action… to support manufacturers.”
The Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario is “sound[ing] the alarm” on the province’s “refusal to address the chronic underfunding of the public education system,” which also has the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation “deeply concerned.”
“This government needs to recognize that ’Made in Canada’ is about more than just products — it is about people, and it starts in our publicly funded public schools,” added the Ontario English Catholic Teachers’ Association.
Ontario’s Federation of Labour called the budget “a plan to reward Conservative insiders.”
— The House is out next week.
— A lull on the committee circuit next week.
Interior will meet on Thursday at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. for public hearings on Bill 5, which would fast-track mining approvals through the creation of rules-free special economic zones (earning no love from opponents or advocacy groups).
— Public consultations on Bill 5 will continue on May 26, with Bill 2 on May 27. It’s not too late to submit in writing.
— Ford Fest is on. Premier Ford’s annual grill-fest is going down at Centennial Park in Etobicoke. Like last year, he’s poised to take the summer fest on a province-wide swing. RSVP here.
Name a reporter who’d pass up a good hot dog? Not this one. I’ll be roaming Ford Fest, grill-watching, crowd-wading and vibing to DJ Dan Jacobs’ spins. Come say hello!
— Manitoba and Ontario inked a deal to scrap interprovincial trade barriers. As Wab Kinew put it: “I think we’ve got a real window of opportunity now to do nation-building projects that have just been ideas for the past number of years.” The Winnipeg Free Press digs in.
— Once orange, always orange: Post-podium with Ford, Kinew stopped by to meet with Marit Stiles and her caucus.
From one person in the room: “He reminded us of what good government can do, inspiring us to get to that point.” One aide grew emotional, thanking Kinew for opening the door to Gazan children to receive urgent medical care, according to a second person.
Naheed Nenshi was also in Toronto for a tête-à-tête with Stiles.
— In the hot seat: Premier Ford’s ex-right-hand man, Amin Massoudi — once described as “like family” — has been sanctioned by the integrity cop for breaking lobbying rules. The Star has the story.
To wit: Massoudi “... did not comply with the Lobbyists Registration Act ’by failing to file a registration after lobbying a public office-holder about his client’s request during a telephone call’ in 2023.”
— Bill 17, Protect Ontario by Building Faster and Smarter Act — Rob Flack’s front-page housing bill, which would speed up approval processes, end the city-by-city approach to construction codes, standardize development charges and fast-track transit projects.
— Bill 18, Supply Act — A routine bill, tabled by Caroline Mulroney, to rubber-stamp government spending from the past fiscal year.
— Bill 19, Patient-to-Nurse Ratios for Hospitals Act — The bill, tabled by France Gélinas, would set out the patient count per nurse, on a case-by-case basis.
— Bill 20, Promoting Leisure Activities for Youth — Stephen Blais’ bill would hand families a non-refundable tax break of up to $1,000 for enrolling kids in extracurriculars.
— Bill 21, Protect Our Food Act — Co-sponsored by Mike Schreiner and Bobbi Ann Brady, the bill would create a new advisory board on the “preservation and enhancement of a geographically continuous land base” and block ag-designated lands from being rezoned.
— Bill 22, Ontario University Athletics Week Act — Tabled by ex-Olympic rower Brian Saunderson, it would proclaim the first full week of October as Ontario University Athletics Week.
— Bill 23, Protecting Seniors’ Rights in Care Homes Act — Tabled by Lise Vaugeois, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell and Chandra Pasma, the bill would beef up protections for seniors in long-term care.
— Bill 24, Plan to Protect Ontario Act — The government’s must-pass budget bill.
— Bill PR3 was ordered for second reading.
— Second reading of Bill 6, Bill 9, Bill 11, Bill 13 and Bill 17 continued.
— Bill 18 was ordered for third reading.
— Opposition Day #3 was voted down, with 69 against and 40 in favour. Marit Stiles’ motion called on the Ford government to “designate critical hospital infrastructure as nation-building projects.”
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 182 new cases — bringing the total to 1,622 since the fall.
35.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas. Hamilton joined the list, logging a single case.
— Kristina Tesser Derksen is the winner of a recount in Milton East-Halton Hills South. She beat ex-cabinet minister Parm Gill by a 21-vote margin.
— A new poll by Liaison Strategies found the Tories are still soaking up the post-election glow with 46 per cent support, while the NDP get “squeezed out” at 13 per cent. 36 per cent picked the Liberals.
— Meanwhile, Nick Kouvalis found that 41 per cent think the province is veering on the “wrong track,” while 34 per cent say the opposite.
— The pre-budget pulse: Abacus tested voter sentiment on taxation, public services, privatized care, job growth and some of the Ford government’s lightning-rod policies.
Here’s what they found:
— The ifs are aplenty in yesterday’s budget, John Michael McGrath says.
— By calling an early election, Doug Ford got ahead of a bad-news budget, Martin Regg Cohn writes.
— For Brian Lilley, things could’ve been worse.
— It was always going to be a balancing act, Brian Lewis argues, while an ex-FAO says the plan almost met the moment.
— Steve Paikin on what’s next for Bonnie Crombie (who says she’s “determined to stay on and finish the job I started”).
— Lilley says Caroline Mulroney should be Canada’s next woman in Washington.
— Regg Cohn says Ford is undermining democracy and botching the response to the measles.
— Mike Schreiner argues the Ford government shouldn’t flirt with a rules-free zone like Russia and China’s.
— On criminal justice changes, Mark Harding argues Ford’s actions do all the talking.
— Prefabricated housing is the solution to the shortage, Cathy Polan writes.
— Shoppers billed the province more than $61-million for prescription reviews in just over a year.
— The price of single-family homes slid for a third straight month in April.
— A 20-metre “bubble zone” around schools, daycares and places of worship could be coming to Toronto.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Nate Erskine-Smith? Karina Gould? Kamal Khera? Nav Bains? I want to hear from you — and you’ll stay anonymous, just like those mysterious sources you’re curious about. We’ll be back in your inbox on Friday, May 30.
The budget is out — and it’s bleeding red ink. We have the highlights and the reaction. But before we dig in, everyone’s talking about Nate Erskine-Smith.
— Shut out of cabinet, could Erskine-Smith pose a threat Bonnie Crombie’s leadership?
The ex-leadership contender lost his cabinet post on Monday, replaced by former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson.
What he said: “I ran again because of the opportunity to make an even bigger difference around the cabinet table and to help fix the housing crisis,” he wrote in a Substack post. “The way it played out doesn’t sit right and it’s impossible not to feel disrespected.”
What he didn’t say: Erskine-Smith — who shelved his plan to exit federal politics — is staying coy: “You never know what the future holds.”
For the most part, on the question of Crombie’s leadership, it’s been crickets lately. But for some discontented Liberals, the snub has reignited the conversation about a post-Bonnie Crombie alternative, with a leadership review set to take place in the fall.
There’s no open revolt, but behind the scenes, two plugged-in organizers say some are already sketching out scenarios for the September vote.
“There’s nothing formal,” one organizer said, adding it’s not just Erskine-Smith loyalists — but “red-blooded Liberals who feel Bonnie misled us on her promise to revive the party.” “We’re brainstorming,” a second said.
(A source close to Erskine-Smith denied any pre-election organizing by his supporters — calling it a “flat-out lie”).
Though there’s “no clear Messiah” to save the party, the organizer explained, Erskine-Smith isn’t a shoo-in. “I want to stress that this isn’t an astroturf to bring in Nate, which some are suggesting. It’s more about tossing out” Crombie, they added. “Ultimately, we’ve had three catastrophic elections as a party, and refuse to learn from our mistakes.”
Both organizers, like other sources, name-dropped Karina Gould, Kamal Khera and Navdeep Bains as possible challengers.
For both, it’s bigger than Bonnie. “We never learned our lessons,” the second organizer said, pointing to the last post-election debrief. That report zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
“The next post-mortem is going to look a lot like the last two because [Crombie] didn’t advance on them,” they added. “Why can’t we recruit good candidates? Why are PLAs drying up like grapes on a vince? Why do we struggle to sell a package that resonates with voters?”
Despite the discontent, those in Crombie’s orbit have insisted to this reporter she’ll be able to hold on — and have framed what a “win” would look like.
“50+1 is the standard,” according to one source. “She got thrown into an election [a year early] and achieved what she set out to do. She restored party status, increased the vote, increased fundraising. Had she won her seat, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.”
As for Erskine-Smith: Asked about a challenge to Crombie, the Liberal leader’s ex-rival said: “It remains to be seen. Who knows?”
Crombie, for her part, shot back with an icy one-liner: “I’m focused on the people of Ontario. That’s where my heart is,” she told reporters. “And you know, that Member of Parliament is really hurting right now, so let’s leave it at that.”
— Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence, the Ford government’s $232-billion budget is out — and it’s bleeding red.
Here’s what you need to know:
— There’s more red. The deficit is now forecast at $14.6 billion, up from $4.6 billion, with most of the $10-billion spike linked to the trade war response.
— There’s still slow growth. Real GDP is on track to shrink from 1.5 per cent to 0.8 per cent. A 1.9 per cent hike is expected in 2027 and 2028.
The debt to GDP ratio will stay below the 40 per cent target, projected at 37.9 per cent in 25-26, 38.9 per cent in 26–27 and 38.6 per cent in 27–28.
Expect employment growth to take a hit. It’ll increase by 0.9 per cent this year, before slipping to just a 0.4 per cent bump next year. 73,000 new jobs are expected this year, down from the projected 130,000 last year.
— Spending is still up. It will hit $232.5 billion this year, growing to $233.7 billion in 2026-27 and $235.7 billion the year after.
— Brace for a squeeze. Health care spending will hit $91.1 billion — up 2 per cent from last year. Of that boost, $1.1 billion is earmarked for hospitals, covering core funding, targeted investments and surgical spending.
After a $2.6 billion top-up this year, education funding will stall out at $41 billion for the next three. Social services spending will climb to $20.6 billion this year, before freezing at $20.4 billion through 27-28.
Revenue is on track to fall to $220 billion, down $1.6 billion year-over-year, dragged down by weaker corporate returns.
— No relief in sight for slumping housing starts. Against a 1.5 million-home target by 2031, the province is projected to build just 71,800 this year. The pace is projected to slow, with 74,800 new units next year, down from 94,400 forecasted last year.
— Past the bottom line, here’s what’s also in the budget:
— The Ford government is tearing up the bike lanes on University and Avenue. But here’s the catch: the power to scrap bike lanes is moving from the minister to the legislature — a tweak that could make it harder to challenge in court.
By legislating the bike lane removals instead of leaving it to a minister, the government is hoping to avoid court scrutiny — since laws passed by the legislature don’t have to meet the same standards of procedural fairness. Still, the courts haven’t always played along (one example: Bill 124).
— Are you a cabinet minister? All former cabinet ministers — past and future — will now be an "Honorary Member of the Executive Council.” With it, they’ll get to keep the “Honourable” title, too.
— Priorities, as told by the most repeated words: Debt: 198; Trade: 105; Transit: 90; Tariffs: 83; Education: 52; Deficit: 42; GO: 41; Alcohol: 33; Homes: 31; Healthcare: 29; Wine: 29; Highways: 28; Historic: 19; Spirits: 17; Balance: 8; Carbon Tax: 8; Bike Lanes: 4; Autism: 3; ODSP: 1; Trump: 1.
— How it landed: NDP leader Marit Stiles called the budget a “band-aid” blueprint, with “little hope and no reassurance.” Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie said it was “another painful reminder that Doug Ford doesn’t govern for the people of Ontario, he governs for the few who have his phone number.”
“This budget ignores the fact that people are going to be hurt by the trade war,” added Green leader Mike Schreiner. “We need a budget that actually invests in people.”
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation called the gas tax cut “a clear win” — but slammed the budget as “financially irresponsible” for piling on debt with no repayment plan.
The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities said the budget gives them reason to be “encouraged.” The Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario was on the same page.
The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters thanked the government for taking “decisive action… to support manufacturers.”
The Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario is “sound[ing] the alarm” on the province’s “refusal to address the chronic underfunding of the public education system,” which also has the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation “deeply concerned.”
“This government needs to recognize that ’Made in Canada’ is about more than just products — it is about people, and it starts in our publicly funded public schools,” added the Ontario English Catholic Teachers’ Association.
Ontario’s Federation of Labour called the budget “a plan to reward Conservative insiders.”
— The House is out next week.
— A lull on the committee circuit next week.
Interior will meet on Thursday at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. for public hearings on Bill 5, which would fast-track mining approvals through the creation of rules-free special economic zones (earning no love from opponents or advocacy groups).
— Public consultations on Bill 5 will continue on May 26, with Bill 2 on May 27. It’s not too late to submit in writing.
— Ford Fest is on. Premier Ford’s annual grill-fest is going down at Centennial Park in Etobicoke. Like last year, he’s poised to take the summer fest on a province-wide swing. RSVP here.
Name a reporter who’d pass up a good hot dog? Not this one. I’ll be roaming Ford Fest, grill-watching, crowd-wading and vibing to DJ Dan Jacobs’ spins. Come say hello!
— Manitoba and Ontario inked a deal to scrap interprovincial trade barriers. As Wab Kinew put it: “I think we’ve got a real window of opportunity now to do nation-building projects that have just been ideas for the past number of years.” The Winnipeg Free Press digs in.
— Once orange, always orange: Post-podium with Ford, Kinew stopped by to meet with Marit Stiles and her caucus.
From one person in the room: “He reminded us of what good government can do, inspiring us to get to that point.” One aide grew emotional, thanking Kinew for opening the door to Gazan children to receive urgent medical care, according to a second person.
Naheed Nenshi was also in Toronto for a tête-à-tête with Stiles.
— In the hot seat: Premier Ford’s ex-right-hand man, Amin Massoudi — once described as “like family” — has been sanctioned by the integrity cop for breaking lobbying rules. The Star has the story.
To wit: Massoudi “... did not comply with the Lobbyists Registration Act ’by failing to file a registration after lobbying a public office-holder about his client’s request during a telephone call’ in 2023.”
— Bill 17, Protect Ontario by Building Faster and Smarter Act — Rob Flack’s front-page housing bill, which would speed up approval processes, end the city-by-city approach to construction codes, standardize development charges and fast-track transit projects.
— Bill 18, Supply Act — A routine bill, tabled by Caroline Mulroney, to rubber-stamp government spending from the past fiscal year.
— Bill 19, Patient-to-Nurse Ratios for Hospitals Act — The bill, tabled by France Gélinas, would set out the patient count per nurse, on a case-by-case basis.
— Bill 20, Promoting Leisure Activities for Youth — Stephen Blais’ bill would hand families a non-refundable tax break of up to $1,000 for enrolling kids in extracurriculars.
— Bill 21, Protect Our Food Act — Co-sponsored by Mike Schreiner and Bobbi Ann Brady, the bill would create a new advisory board on the “preservation and enhancement of a geographically continuous land base” and block ag-designated lands from being rezoned.
— Bill 22, Ontario University Athletics Week Act — Tabled by ex-Olympic rower Brian Saunderson, it would proclaim the first full week of October as Ontario University Athletics Week.
— Bill 23, Protecting Seniors’ Rights in Care Homes Act — Tabled by Lise Vaugeois, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell and Chandra Pasma, the bill would beef up protections for seniors in long-term care.
— Bill 24, Plan to Protect Ontario Act — The government’s must-pass budget bill.
— Bill PR3 was ordered for second reading.
— Second reading of Bill 6, Bill 9, Bill 11, Bill 13 and Bill 17 continued.
— Bill 18 was ordered for third reading.
— Opposition Day #3 was voted down, with 69 against and 40 in favour. Marit Stiles’ motion called on the Ford government to “designate critical hospital infrastructure as nation-building projects.”
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 182 new cases — bringing the total to 1,622 since the fall.
35.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas. Hamilton joined the list, logging a single case.
— Kristina Tesser Derksen is the winner of a recount in Milton East-Halton Hills South. She beat ex-cabinet minister Parm Gill by a 21-vote margin.
— A new poll by Liaison Strategies found the Tories are still soaking up the post-election glow with 46 per cent support, while the NDP get “squeezed out” at 13 per cent. 36 per cent picked the Liberals.
— Meanwhile, Nick Kouvalis found that 41 per cent think the province is veering on the “wrong track,” while 34 per cent say the opposite.
— The pre-budget pulse: Abacus tested voter sentiment on taxation, public services, privatized care, job growth and some of the Ford government’s lightning-rod policies.
Here’s what they found:
— The ifs are aplenty in yesterday’s budget, John Michael McGrath says.
— By calling an early election, Doug Ford got ahead of a bad-news budget, Martin Regg Cohn writes.
— For Brian Lilley, things could’ve been worse.
— It was always going to be a balancing act, Brian Lewis argues, while an ex-FAO says the plan almost met the moment.
— Steve Paikin on what’s next for Bonnie Crombie (who says she’s “determined to stay on and finish the job I started”).
— Lilley says Caroline Mulroney should be Canada’s next woman in Washington.
— Regg Cohn says Ford is undermining democracy and botching the response to the measles.
— Mike Schreiner argues the Ford government shouldn’t flirt with a rules-free zone like Russia and China’s.
— On criminal justice changes, Mark Harding argues Ford’s actions do all the talking.
— Prefabricated housing is the solution to the shortage, Cathy Polan writes.
— Shoppers billed the province more than $61-million for prescription reviews in just over a year.
— The price of single-family homes slid for a third straight month in April.
— A 20-metre “bubble zone” around schools, daycares and places of worship could be coming to Toronto.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Nate Erskine-Smith? Karina Gould? Kamal Khera? Nav Bains? I want to hear from you — and you’ll stay anonymous, just like those mysterious sources you’re curious about. We’ll be back in your inbox on Friday, May 30.
The budget is out — and it’s bleeding red ink. We have the highlights and the reaction. But before we dig in, everyone’s talking about Nate Erskine-Smith.
— Shut out of cabinet, could Erskine-Smith pose a threat Bonnie Crombie’s leadership?
The ex-leadership contender lost his cabinet post on Monday, replaced by former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson.
What he said: “I ran again because of the opportunity to make an even bigger difference around the cabinet table and to help fix the housing crisis,” he wrote in a Substack post. “The way it played out doesn’t sit right and it’s impossible not to feel disrespected.”
What he didn’t say: Erskine-Smith — who shelved his plan to exit federal politics — is staying coy: “You never know what the future holds.”
For the most part, on the question of Crombie’s leadership, it’s been crickets lately. But for some discontented Liberals, the snub has reignited the conversation about a post-Bonnie Crombie alternative, with a leadership review set to take place in the fall.
There’s no open revolt, but behind the scenes, two plugged-in organizers say some are already sketching out scenarios for the September vote.
“There’s nothing formal,” one organizer said, adding it’s not just Erskine-Smith loyalists — but “red-blooded Liberals who feel Bonnie misled us on her promise to revive the party.” “We’re brainstorming,” a second said.
(A source close to Erskine-Smith denied any pre-election organizing by his supporters — calling it a “flat-out lie”).
Though there’s “no clear Messiah” to save the party, the organizer explained, Erskine-Smith isn’t a shoo-in. “I want to stress that this isn’t an astroturf to bring in Nate, which some are suggesting. It’s more about tossing out” Crombie, they added. “Ultimately, we’ve had three catastrophic elections as a party, and refuse to learn from our mistakes.”
Both organizers, like other sources, name-dropped Karina Gould, Kamal Khera and Navdeep Bains as possible challengers.
For both, it’s bigger than Bonnie. “We never learned our lessons,” the second organizer said, pointing to the last post-election debrief. That report zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
“The next post-mortem is going to look a lot like the last two because [Crombie] didn’t advance on them,” they added. “Why can’t we recruit good candidates? Why are PLAs drying up like grapes on a vince? Why do we struggle to sell a package that resonates with voters?”
Despite the discontent, those in Crombie’s orbit have insisted to this reporter she’ll be able to hold on — and have framed what a “win” would look like.
“50+1 is the standard,” according to one source. “She got thrown into an election [a year early] and achieved what she set out to do. She restored party status, increased the vote, increased fundraising. Had she won her seat, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.”
As for Erskine-Smith: Asked about a challenge to Crombie, the Liberal leader’s ex-rival said: “It remains to be seen. Who knows?”
Crombie, for her part, shot back with an icy one-liner: “I’m focused on the people of Ontario. That’s where my heart is,” she told reporters. “And you know, that Member of Parliament is really hurting right now, so let’s leave it at that.”
— Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence, the Ford government’s $232-billion budget is out — and it’s bleeding red.
Here’s what you need to know:
— There’s more red. The deficit is now forecast at $14.6 billion, up from $4.6 billion, with most of the $10-billion spike linked to the trade war response.
— There’s still slow growth. Real GDP is on track to shrink from 1.5 per cent to 0.8 per cent. A 1.9 per cent hike is expected in 2027 and 2028.
The debt to GDP ratio will stay below the 40 per cent target, projected at 37.9 per cent in 25-26, 38.9 per cent in 26–27 and 38.6 per cent in 27–28.
Expect employment growth to take a hit. It’ll increase by 0.9 per cent this year, before slipping to just a 0.4 per cent bump next year. 73,000 new jobs are expected this year, down from the projected 130,000 last year.
— Spending is still up. It will hit $232.5 billion this year, growing to $233.7 billion in 2026-27 and $235.7 billion the year after.
— Brace for a squeeze. Health care spending will hit $91.1 billion — up 2 per cent from last year. Of that boost, $1.1 billion is earmarked for hospitals, covering core funding, targeted investments and surgical spending.
After a $2.6 billion top-up this year, education funding will stall out at $41 billion for the next three. Social services spending will climb to $20.6 billion this year, before freezing at $20.4 billion through 27-28.
Revenue is on track to fall to $220 billion, down $1.6 billion year-over-year, dragged down by weaker corporate returns.
— No relief in sight for slumping housing starts. Against a 1.5 million-home target by 2031, the province is projected to build just 71,800 this year. The pace is projected to slow, with 74,800 new units next year, down from 94,400 forecasted last year.
— Past the bottom line, here’s what’s also in the budget:
— The Ford government is tearing up the bike lanes on University and Avenue. But here’s the catch: the power to scrap bike lanes is moving from the minister to the legislature — a tweak that could make it harder to challenge in court.
By legislating the bike lane removals instead of leaving it to a minister, the government is hoping to avoid court scrutiny — since laws passed by the legislature don’t have to meet the same standards of procedural fairness. Still, the courts haven’t always played along (one example: Bill 124).
— Are you a cabinet minister? All former cabinet ministers — past and future — will now be an "Honorary Member of the Executive Council.” With it, they’ll get to keep the “Honourable” title, too.
— Priorities, as told by the most repeated words: Debt: 198; Trade: 105; Transit: 90; Tariffs: 83; Education: 52; Deficit: 42; GO: 41; Alcohol: 33; Homes: 31; Healthcare: 29; Wine: 29; Highways: 28; Historic: 19; Spirits: 17; Balance: 8; Carbon Tax: 8; Bike Lanes: 4; Autism: 3; ODSP: 1; Trump: 1.
— How it landed: NDP leader Marit Stiles called the budget a “band-aid” blueprint, with “little hope and no reassurance.” Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie said it was “another painful reminder that Doug Ford doesn’t govern for the people of Ontario, he governs for the few who have his phone number.”
“This budget ignores the fact that people are going to be hurt by the trade war,” added Green leader Mike Schreiner. “We need a budget that actually invests in people.”
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation called the gas tax cut “a clear win” — but slammed the budget as “financially irresponsible” for piling on debt with no repayment plan.
The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities said the budget gives them reason to be “encouraged.” The Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario was on the same page.
The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters thanked the government for taking “decisive action… to support manufacturers.”
The Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario is “sound[ing] the alarm” on the province’s “refusal to address the chronic underfunding of the public education system,” which also has the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation “deeply concerned.”
“This government needs to recognize that ’Made in Canada’ is about more than just products — it is about people, and it starts in our publicly funded public schools,” added the Ontario English Catholic Teachers’ Association.
Ontario’s Federation of Labour called the budget “a plan to reward Conservative insiders.”
— The House is out next week.
— A lull on the committee circuit next week.
Interior will meet on Thursday at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. for public hearings on Bill 5, which would fast-track mining approvals through the creation of rules-free special economic zones (earning no love from opponents or advocacy groups).
— Public consultations on Bill 5 will continue on May 26, with Bill 2 on May 27. It’s not too late to submit in writing.
— Ford Fest is on. Premier Ford’s annual grill-fest is going down at Centennial Park in Etobicoke. Like last year, he’s poised to take the summer fest on a province-wide swing. RSVP here.
Name a reporter who’d pass up a good hot dog? Not this one. I’ll be roaming Ford Fest, grill-watching, crowd-wading and vibing to DJ Dan Jacobs’ spins. Come say hello!
— Manitoba and Ontario inked a deal to scrap interprovincial trade barriers. As Wab Kinew put it: “I think we’ve got a real window of opportunity now to do nation-building projects that have just been ideas for the past number of years.” The Winnipeg Free Press digs in.
— Once orange, always orange: Post-podium with Ford, Kinew stopped by to meet with Marit Stiles and her caucus.
From one person in the room: “He reminded us of what good government can do, inspiring us to get to that point.” One aide grew emotional, thanking Kinew for opening the door to Gazan children to receive urgent medical care, according to a second person.
Naheed Nenshi was also in Toronto for a tête-à-tête with Stiles.
— In the hot seat: Premier Ford’s ex-right-hand man, Amin Massoudi — once described as “like family” — has been sanctioned by the integrity cop for breaking lobbying rules. The Star has the story.
To wit: Massoudi “... did not comply with the Lobbyists Registration Act ’by failing to file a registration after lobbying a public office-holder about his client’s request during a telephone call’ in 2023.”
— Bill 17, Protect Ontario by Building Faster and Smarter Act — Rob Flack’s front-page housing bill, which would speed up approval processes, end the city-by-city approach to construction codes, standardize development charges and fast-track transit projects.
— Bill 18, Supply Act — A routine bill, tabled by Caroline Mulroney, to rubber-stamp government spending from the past fiscal year.
— Bill 19, Patient-to-Nurse Ratios for Hospitals Act — The bill, tabled by France Gélinas, would set out the patient count per nurse, on a case-by-case basis.
— Bill 20, Promoting Leisure Activities for Youth — Stephen Blais’ bill would hand families a non-refundable tax break of up to $1,000 for enrolling kids in extracurriculars.
— Bill 21, Protect Our Food Act — Co-sponsored by Mike Schreiner and Bobbi Ann Brady, the bill would create a new advisory board on the “preservation and enhancement of a geographically continuous land base” and block ag-designated lands from being rezoned.
— Bill 22, Ontario University Athletics Week Act — Tabled by ex-Olympic rower Brian Saunderson, it would proclaim the first full week of October as Ontario University Athletics Week.
— Bill 23, Protecting Seniors’ Rights in Care Homes Act — Tabled by Lise Vaugeois, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell and Chandra Pasma, the bill would beef up protections for seniors in long-term care.
— Bill 24, Plan to Protect Ontario Act — The government’s must-pass budget bill.
— Bill PR3 was ordered for second reading.
— Second reading of Bill 6, Bill 9, Bill 11, Bill 13 and Bill 17 continued.
— Bill 18 was ordered for third reading.
— Opposition Day #3 was voted down, with 69 against and 40 in favour. Marit Stiles’ motion called on the Ford government to “designate critical hospital infrastructure as nation-building projects.”
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 182 new cases — bringing the total to 1,622 since the fall.
35.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas. Hamilton joined the list, logging a single case.
— Kristina Tesser Derksen is the winner of a recount in Milton East-Halton Hills South. She beat ex-cabinet minister Parm Gill by a 21-vote margin.
— A new poll by Liaison Strategies found the Tories are still soaking up the post-election glow with 46 per cent support, while the NDP get “squeezed out” at 13 per cent. 36 per cent picked the Liberals.
— Meanwhile, Nick Kouvalis found that 41 per cent think the province is veering on the “wrong track,” while 34 per cent say the opposite.
— The pre-budget pulse: Abacus tested voter sentiment on taxation, public services, privatized care, job growth and some of the Ford government’s lightning-rod policies.
Here’s what they found:
— The ifs are aplenty in yesterday’s budget, John Michael McGrath says.
— By calling an early election, Doug Ford got ahead of a bad-news budget, Martin Regg Cohn writes.
— For Brian Lilley, things could’ve been worse.
— It was always going to be a balancing act, Brian Lewis argues, while an ex-FAO says the plan almost met the moment.
— Steve Paikin on what’s next for Bonnie Crombie (who says she’s “determined to stay on and finish the job I started”).
— Lilley says Caroline Mulroney should be Canada’s next woman in Washington.
— Regg Cohn says Ford is undermining democracy and botching the response to the measles.
— Mike Schreiner argues the Ford government shouldn’t flirt with a rules-free zone like Russia and China’s.
— On criminal justice changes, Mark Harding argues Ford’s actions do all the talking.
— Prefabricated housing is the solution to the shortage, Cathy Polan writes.
— Shoppers billed the province more than $61-million for prescription reviews in just over a year.
— The price of single-family homes slid for a third straight month in April.
— A 20-metre “bubble zone” around schools, daycares and places of worship could be coming to Toronto.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Nate Erskine-Smith? Karina Gould? Kamal Khera? Nav Bains? I want to hear from you — and you’ll stay anonymous, just like those mysterious sources you’re curious about. We’ll be back in your inbox on Friday, May 30.
The budget is out — and it’s bleeding red ink. We have the highlights and the reaction. But before we dig in, everyone’s talking about Nate Erskine-Smith.
— Shut out of cabinet, could Erskine-Smith pose a threat Bonnie Crombie’s leadership?
The ex-leadership contender lost his cabinet post on Monday, replaced by former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson.
What he said: “I ran again because of the opportunity to make an even bigger difference around the cabinet table and to help fix the housing crisis,” he wrote in a Substack post. “The way it played out doesn’t sit right and it’s impossible not to feel disrespected.”
What he didn’t say: Erskine-Smith — who shelved his plan to exit federal politics — is staying coy: “You never know what the future holds.”
For the most part, on the question of Crombie’s leadership, it’s been crickets lately. But for some discontented Liberals, the snub has reignited the conversation about a post-Bonnie Crombie alternative, with a leadership review set to take place in the fall.
There’s no open revolt, but behind the scenes, two plugged-in organizers say some are already sketching out scenarios for the September vote.
“There’s nothing formal,” one organizer said, adding it’s not just Erskine-Smith loyalists — but “red-blooded Liberals who feel Bonnie misled us on her promise to revive the party.” “We’re brainstorming,” a second said.
(A source close to Erskine-Smith denied any pre-election organizing by his supporters — calling it a “flat-out lie”).
Though there’s “no clear Messiah” to save the party, the organizer explained, Erskine-Smith isn’t a shoo-in. “I want to stress that this isn’t an astroturf to bring in Nate, which some are suggesting. It’s more about tossing out” Crombie, they added. “Ultimately, we’ve had three catastrophic elections as a party, and refuse to learn from our mistakes.”
Both organizers, like other sources, name-dropped Karina Gould, Kamal Khera and Navdeep Bains as possible challengers.
For both, it’s bigger than Bonnie. “We never learned our lessons,” the second organizer said, pointing to the last post-election debrief. That report zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
“The next post-mortem is going to look a lot like the last two because [Crombie] didn’t advance on them,” they added. “Why can’t we recruit good candidates? Why are PLAs drying up like grapes on a vince? Why do we struggle to sell a package that resonates with voters?”
Despite the discontent, those in Crombie’s orbit have insisted to this reporter she’ll be able to hold on — and have framed what a “win” would look like.
“50+1 is the standard,” according to one source. “She got thrown into an election [a year early] and achieved what she set out to do. She restored party status, increased the vote, increased fundraising. Had she won her seat, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.”
As for Erskine-Smith: Asked about a challenge to Crombie, the Liberal leader’s ex-rival said: “It remains to be seen. Who knows?”
Crombie, for her part, shot back with an icy one-liner: “I’m focused on the people of Ontario. That’s where my heart is,” she told reporters. “And you know, that Member of Parliament is really hurting right now, so let’s leave it at that.”
— Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence, the Ford government’s $232-billion budget is out — and it’s bleeding red.
Here’s what you need to know:
— There’s more red. The deficit is now forecast at $14.6 billion, up from $4.6 billion, with most of the $10-billion spike linked to the trade war response.
— There’s still slow growth. Real GDP is on track to shrink from 1.5 per cent to 0.8 per cent. A 1.9 per cent hike is expected in 2027 and 2028.
The debt to GDP ratio will stay below the 40 per cent target, projected at 37.9 per cent in 25-26, 38.9 per cent in 26–27 and 38.6 per cent in 27–28.
Expect employment growth to take a hit. It’ll increase by 0.9 per cent this year, before slipping to just a 0.4 per cent bump next year. 73,000 new jobs are expected this year, down from the projected 130,000 last year.
— Spending is still up. It will hit $232.5 billion this year, growing to $233.7 billion in 2026-27 and $235.7 billion the year after.
— Brace for a squeeze. Health care spending will hit $91.1 billion — up 2 per cent from last year. Of that boost, $1.1 billion is earmarked for hospitals, covering core funding, targeted investments and surgical spending.
After a $2.6 billion top-up this year, education funding will stall out at $41 billion for the next three. Social services spending will climb to $20.6 billion this year, before freezing at $20.4 billion through 27-28.
Revenue is on track to fall to $220 billion, down $1.6 billion year-over-year, dragged down by weaker corporate returns.
— No relief in sight for slumping housing starts. Against a 1.5 million-home target by 2031, the province is projected to build just 71,800 this year. The pace is projected to slow, with 74,800 new units next year, down from 94,400 forecasted last year.
— Past the bottom line, here’s what’s also in the budget:
— The Ford government is tearing up the bike lanes on University and Avenue. But here’s the catch: the power to scrap bike lanes is moving from the minister to the legislature — a tweak that could make it harder to challenge in court.
By legislating the bike lane removals instead of leaving it to a minister, the government is hoping to avoid court scrutiny — since laws passed by the legislature don’t have to meet the same standards of procedural fairness. Still, the courts haven’t always played along (one example: Bill 124).
— Are you a cabinet minister? All former cabinet ministers — past and future — will now be an "Honorary Member of the Executive Council.” With it, they’ll get to keep the “Honourable” title, too.
— Priorities, as told by the most repeated words: Debt: 198; Trade: 105; Transit: 90; Tariffs: 83; Education: 52; Deficit: 42; GO: 41; Alcohol: 33; Homes: 31; Healthcare: 29; Wine: 29; Highways: 28; Historic: 19; Spirits: 17; Balance: 8; Carbon Tax: 8; Bike Lanes: 4; Autism: 3; ODSP: 1; Trump: 1.
— How it landed: NDP leader Marit Stiles called the budget a “band-aid” blueprint, with “little hope and no reassurance.” Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie said it was “another painful reminder that Doug Ford doesn’t govern for the people of Ontario, he governs for the few who have his phone number.”
“This budget ignores the fact that people are going to be hurt by the trade war,” added Green leader Mike Schreiner. “We need a budget that actually invests in people.”
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation called the gas tax cut “a clear win” — but slammed the budget as “financially irresponsible” for piling on debt with no repayment plan.
The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities said the budget gives them reason to be “encouraged.” The Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario was on the same page.
The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters thanked the government for taking “decisive action… to support manufacturers.”
The Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario is “sound[ing] the alarm” on the province’s “refusal to address the chronic underfunding of the public education system,” which also has the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation “deeply concerned.”
“This government needs to recognize that ’Made in Canada’ is about more than just products — it is about people, and it starts in our publicly funded public schools,” added the Ontario English Catholic Teachers’ Association.
Ontario’s Federation of Labour called the budget “a plan to reward Conservative insiders.”
— The House is out next week.
— A lull on the committee circuit next week.
Interior will meet on Thursday at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. for public hearings on Bill 5, which would fast-track mining approvals through the creation of rules-free special economic zones (earning no love from opponents or advocacy groups).
— Public consultations on Bill 5 will continue on May 26, with Bill 2 on May 27. It’s not too late to submit in writing.
— Ford Fest is on. Premier Ford’s annual grill-fest is going down at Centennial Park in Etobicoke. Like last year, he’s poised to take the summer fest on a province-wide swing. RSVP here.
Name a reporter who’d pass up a good hot dog? Not this one. I’ll be roaming Ford Fest, grill-watching, crowd-wading and vibing to DJ Dan Jacobs’ spins. Come say hello!
— Manitoba and Ontario inked a deal to scrap interprovincial trade barriers. As Wab Kinew put it: “I think we’ve got a real window of opportunity now to do nation-building projects that have just been ideas for the past number of years.” The Winnipeg Free Press digs in.
— Once orange, always orange: Post-podium with Ford, Kinew stopped by to meet with Marit Stiles and her caucus.
From one person in the room: “He reminded us of what good government can do, inspiring us to get to that point.” One aide grew emotional, thanking Kinew for opening the door to Gazan children to receive urgent medical care, according to a second person.
Naheed Nenshi was also in Toronto for a tête-à-tête with Stiles.
— In the hot seat: Premier Ford’s ex-right-hand man, Amin Massoudi — once described as “like family” — has been sanctioned by the integrity cop for breaking lobbying rules. The Star has the story.
To wit: Massoudi “... did not comply with the Lobbyists Registration Act ’by failing to file a registration after lobbying a public office-holder about his client’s request during a telephone call’ in 2023.”
— Bill 17, Protect Ontario by Building Faster and Smarter Act — Rob Flack’s front-page housing bill, which would speed up approval processes, end the city-by-city approach to construction codes, standardize development charges and fast-track transit projects.
— Bill 18, Supply Act — A routine bill, tabled by Caroline Mulroney, to rubber-stamp government spending from the past fiscal year.
— Bill 19, Patient-to-Nurse Ratios for Hospitals Act — The bill, tabled by France Gélinas, would set out the patient count per nurse, on a case-by-case basis.
— Bill 20, Promoting Leisure Activities for Youth — Stephen Blais’ bill would hand families a non-refundable tax break of up to $1,000 for enrolling kids in extracurriculars.
— Bill 21, Protect Our Food Act — Co-sponsored by Mike Schreiner and Bobbi Ann Brady, the bill would create a new advisory board on the “preservation and enhancement of a geographically continuous land base” and block ag-designated lands from being rezoned.
— Bill 22, Ontario University Athletics Week Act — Tabled by ex-Olympic rower Brian Saunderson, it would proclaim the first full week of October as Ontario University Athletics Week.
— Bill 23, Protecting Seniors’ Rights in Care Homes Act — Tabled by Lise Vaugeois, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell and Chandra Pasma, the bill would beef up protections for seniors in long-term care.
— Bill 24, Plan to Protect Ontario Act — The government’s must-pass budget bill.
— Bill PR3 was ordered for second reading.
— Second reading of Bill 6, Bill 9, Bill 11, Bill 13 and Bill 17 continued.
— Bill 18 was ordered for third reading.
— Opposition Day #3 was voted down, with 69 against and 40 in favour. Marit Stiles’ motion called on the Ford government to “designate critical hospital infrastructure as nation-building projects.”
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 182 new cases — bringing the total to 1,622 since the fall.
35.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas. Hamilton joined the list, logging a single case.
— Kristina Tesser Derksen is the winner of a recount in Milton East-Halton Hills South. She beat ex-cabinet minister Parm Gill by a 21-vote margin.
— A new poll by Liaison Strategies found the Tories are still soaking up the post-election glow with 46 per cent support, while the NDP get “squeezed out” at 13 per cent. 36 per cent picked the Liberals.
— Meanwhile, Nick Kouvalis found that 41 per cent think the province is veering on the “wrong track,” while 34 per cent say the opposite.
— The pre-budget pulse: Abacus tested voter sentiment on taxation, public services, privatized care, job growth and some of the Ford government’s lightning-rod policies.
Here’s what they found:
— The ifs are aplenty in yesterday’s budget, John Michael McGrath says.
— By calling an early election, Doug Ford got ahead of a bad-news budget, Martin Regg Cohn writes.
— For Brian Lilley, things could’ve been worse.
— It was always going to be a balancing act, Brian Lewis argues, while an ex-FAO says the plan almost met the moment.
— Steve Paikin on what’s next for Bonnie Crombie (who says she’s “determined to stay on and finish the job I started”).
— Lilley says Caroline Mulroney should be Canada’s next woman in Washington.
— Regg Cohn says Ford is undermining democracy and botching the response to the measles.
— Mike Schreiner argues the Ford government shouldn’t flirt with a rules-free zone like Russia and China’s.
— On criminal justice changes, Mark Harding argues Ford’s actions do all the talking.
— Prefabricated housing is the solution to the shortage, Cathy Polan writes.
— Shoppers billed the province more than $61-million for prescription reviews in just over a year.
— The price of single-family homes slid for a third straight month in April.
— A 20-metre “bubble zone” around schools, daycares and places of worship could be coming to Toronto.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Nate Erskine-Smith? Karina Gould? Kamal Khera? Nav Bains? I want to hear from you — and you’ll stay anonymous, just like those mysterious sources you’re curious about. We’ll be back in your inbox on Friday, May 30.
The budget is out — and it’s bleeding red ink. We have the highlights and the reaction. But before we dig in, everyone’s talking about Nate Erskine-Smith.
— Shut out of cabinet, could Erskine-Smith pose a threat Bonnie Crombie’s leadership?
The ex-leadership contender lost his cabinet post on Monday, replaced by former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson.
What he said: “I ran again because of the opportunity to make an even bigger difference around the cabinet table and to help fix the housing crisis,” he wrote in a Substack post. “The way it played out doesn’t sit right and it’s impossible not to feel disrespected.”
What he didn’t say: Erskine-Smith — who shelved his plan to exit federal politics — is staying coy: “You never know what the future holds.”
For the most part, on the question of Crombie’s leadership, it’s been crickets lately. But for some discontented Liberals, the snub has reignited the conversation about a post-Bonnie Crombie alternative, with a leadership review set to take place in the fall.
There’s no open revolt, but behind the scenes, two plugged-in organizers say some are already sketching out scenarios for the September vote.
“There’s nothing formal,” one organizer said, adding it’s not just Erskine-Smith loyalists — but “red-blooded Liberals who feel Bonnie misled us on her promise to revive the party.” “We’re brainstorming,” a second said.
(A source close to Erskine-Smith denied any pre-election organizing by his supporters — calling it a “flat-out lie”).
Though there’s “no clear Messiah” to save the party, the organizer explained, Erskine-Smith isn’t a shoo-in. “I want to stress that this isn’t an astroturf to bring in Nate, which some are suggesting. It’s more about tossing out” Crombie, they added. “Ultimately, we’ve had three catastrophic elections as a party, and refuse to learn from our mistakes.”
Both organizers, like other sources, name-dropped Karina Gould, Kamal Khera and Navdeep Bains as possible challengers.
For both, it’s bigger than Bonnie. “We never learned our lessons,” the second organizer said, pointing to the last post-election debrief. That report zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
“The next post-mortem is going to look a lot like the last two because [Crombie] didn’t advance on them,” they added. “Why can’t we recruit good candidates? Why are PLAs drying up like grapes on a vince? Why do we struggle to sell a package that resonates with voters?”
Despite the discontent, those in Crombie’s orbit have insisted to this reporter she’ll be able to hold on — and have framed what a “win” would look like.
“50+1 is the standard,” according to one source. “She got thrown into an election [a year early] and achieved what she set out to do. She restored party status, increased the vote, increased fundraising. Had she won her seat, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.”
As for Erskine-Smith: Asked about a challenge to Crombie, the Liberal leader’s ex-rival said: “It remains to be seen. Who knows?”
Crombie, for her part, shot back with an icy one-liner: “I’m focused on the people of Ontario. That’s where my heart is,” she told reporters. “And you know, that Member of Parliament is really hurting right now, so let’s leave it at that.”
— Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence, the Ford government’s $232-billion budget is out — and it’s bleeding red.
Here’s what you need to know:
— There’s more red. The deficit is now forecast at $14.6 billion, up from $4.6 billion, with most of the $10-billion spike linked to the trade war response.
— There’s still slow growth. Real GDP is on track to shrink from 1.5 per cent to 0.8 per cent. A 1.9 per cent hike is expected in 2027 and 2028.
The debt to GDP ratio will stay below the 40 per cent target, projected at 37.9 per cent in 25-26, 38.9 per cent in 26–27 and 38.6 per cent in 27–28.
Expect employment growth to take a hit. It’ll increase by 0.9 per cent this year, before slipping to just a 0.4 per cent bump next year. 73,000 new jobs are expected this year, down from the projected 130,000 last year.
— Spending is still up. It will hit $232.5 billion this year, growing to $233.7 billion in 2026-27 and $235.7 billion the year after.
— Brace for a squeeze. Health care spending will hit $91.1 billion — up 2 per cent from last year. Of that boost, $1.1 billion is earmarked for hospitals, covering core funding, targeted investments and surgical spending.
After a $2.6 billion top-up this year, education funding will stall out at $41 billion for the next three. Social services spending will climb to $20.6 billion this year, before freezing at $20.4 billion through 27-28.
Revenue is on track to fall to $220 billion, down $1.6 billion year-over-year, dragged down by weaker corporate returns.
— No relief in sight for slumping housing starts. Against a 1.5 million-home target by 2031, the province is projected to build just 71,800 this year. The pace is projected to slow, with 74,800 new units next year, down from 94,400 forecasted last year.
— Past the bottom line, here’s what’s also in the budget:
— The Ford government is tearing up the bike lanes on University and Avenue. But here’s the catch: the power to scrap bike lanes is moving from the minister to the legislature — a tweak that could make it harder to challenge in court.
By legislating the bike lane removals instead of leaving it to a minister, the government is hoping to avoid court scrutiny — since laws passed by the legislature don’t have to meet the same standards of procedural fairness. Still, the courts haven’t always played along (one example: Bill 124).
— Are you a cabinet minister? All former cabinet ministers — past and future — will now be an "Honorary Member of the Executive Council.” With it, they’ll get to keep the “Honourable” title, too.
— Priorities, as told by the most repeated words: Debt: 198; Trade: 105; Transit: 90; Tariffs: 83; Education: 52; Deficit: 42; GO: 41; Alcohol: 33; Homes: 31; Healthcare: 29; Wine: 29; Highways: 28; Historic: 19; Spirits: 17; Balance: 8; Carbon Tax: 8; Bike Lanes: 4; Autism: 3; ODSP: 1; Trump: 1.
— How it landed: NDP leader Marit Stiles called the budget a “band-aid” blueprint, with “little hope and no reassurance.” Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie said it was “another painful reminder that Doug Ford doesn’t govern for the people of Ontario, he governs for the few who have his phone number.”
“This budget ignores the fact that people are going to be hurt by the trade war,” added Green leader Mike Schreiner. “We need a budget that actually invests in people.”
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation called the gas tax cut “a clear win” — but slammed the budget as “financially irresponsible” for piling on debt with no repayment plan.
The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities said the budget gives them reason to be “encouraged.” The Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario was on the same page.
The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters thanked the government for taking “decisive action… to support manufacturers.”
The Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario is “sound[ing] the alarm” on the province’s “refusal to address the chronic underfunding of the public education system,” which also has the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation “deeply concerned.”
“This government needs to recognize that ’Made in Canada’ is about more than just products — it is about people, and it starts in our publicly funded public schools,” added the Ontario English Catholic Teachers’ Association.
Ontario’s Federation of Labour called the budget “a plan to reward Conservative insiders.”
— The House is out next week.
— A lull on the committee circuit next week.
Interior will meet on Thursday at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. for public hearings on Bill 5, which would fast-track mining approvals through the creation of rules-free special economic zones (earning no love from opponents or advocacy groups).
— Public consultations on Bill 5 will continue on May 26, with Bill 2 on May 27. It’s not too late to submit in writing.
— Ford Fest is on. Premier Ford’s annual grill-fest is going down at Centennial Park in Etobicoke. Like last year, he’s poised to take the summer fest on a province-wide swing. RSVP here.
Name a reporter who’d pass up a good hot dog? Not this one. I’ll be roaming Ford Fest, grill-watching, crowd-wading and vibing to DJ Dan Jacobs’ spins. Come say hello!
— Manitoba and Ontario inked a deal to scrap interprovincial trade barriers. As Wab Kinew put it: “I think we’ve got a real window of opportunity now to do nation-building projects that have just been ideas for the past number of years.” The Winnipeg Free Press digs in.
— Once orange, always orange: Post-podium with Ford, Kinew stopped by to meet with Marit Stiles and her caucus.
From one person in the room: “He reminded us of what good government can do, inspiring us to get to that point.” One aide grew emotional, thanking Kinew for opening the door to Gazan children to receive urgent medical care, according to a second person.
Naheed Nenshi was also in Toronto for a tête-à-tête with Stiles.
— In the hot seat: Premier Ford’s ex-right-hand man, Amin Massoudi — once described as “like family” — has been sanctioned by the integrity cop for breaking lobbying rules. The Star has the story.
To wit: Massoudi “... did not comply with the Lobbyists Registration Act ’by failing to file a registration after lobbying a public office-holder about his client’s request during a telephone call’ in 2023.”
— Bill 17, Protect Ontario by Building Faster and Smarter Act — Rob Flack’s front-page housing bill, which would speed up approval processes, end the city-by-city approach to construction codes, standardize development charges and fast-track transit projects.
— Bill 18, Supply Act — A routine bill, tabled by Caroline Mulroney, to rubber-stamp government spending from the past fiscal year.
— Bill 19, Patient-to-Nurse Ratios for Hospitals Act — The bill, tabled by France Gélinas, would set out the patient count per nurse, on a case-by-case basis.
— Bill 20, Promoting Leisure Activities for Youth — Stephen Blais’ bill would hand families a non-refundable tax break of up to $1,000 for enrolling kids in extracurriculars.
— Bill 21, Protect Our Food Act — Co-sponsored by Mike Schreiner and Bobbi Ann Brady, the bill would create a new advisory board on the “preservation and enhancement of a geographically continuous land base” and block ag-designated lands from being rezoned.
— Bill 22, Ontario University Athletics Week Act — Tabled by ex-Olympic rower Brian Saunderson, it would proclaim the first full week of October as Ontario University Athletics Week.
— Bill 23, Protecting Seniors’ Rights in Care Homes Act — Tabled by Lise Vaugeois, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell and Chandra Pasma, the bill would beef up protections for seniors in long-term care.
— Bill 24, Plan to Protect Ontario Act — The government’s must-pass budget bill.
— Bill PR3 was ordered for second reading.
— Second reading of Bill 6, Bill 9, Bill 11, Bill 13 and Bill 17 continued.
— Bill 18 was ordered for third reading.
— Opposition Day #3 was voted down, with 69 against and 40 in favour. Marit Stiles’ motion called on the Ford government to “designate critical hospital infrastructure as nation-building projects.”
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 182 new cases — bringing the total to 1,622 since the fall.
35.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas. Hamilton joined the list, logging a single case.
— Kristina Tesser Derksen is the winner of a recount in Milton East-Halton Hills South. She beat ex-cabinet minister Parm Gill by a 21-vote margin.
— A new poll by Liaison Strategies found the Tories are still soaking up the post-election glow with 46 per cent support, while the NDP get “squeezed out” at 13 per cent. 36 per cent picked the Liberals.
— Meanwhile, Nick Kouvalis found that 41 per cent think the province is veering on the “wrong track,” while 34 per cent say the opposite.
— The pre-budget pulse: Abacus tested voter sentiment on taxation, public services, privatized care, job growth and some of the Ford government’s lightning-rod policies.
Here’s what they found:
— The ifs are aplenty in yesterday’s budget, John Michael McGrath says.
— By calling an early election, Doug Ford got ahead of a bad-news budget, Martin Regg Cohn writes.
— For Brian Lilley, things could’ve been worse.
— It was always going to be a balancing act, Brian Lewis argues, while an ex-FAO says the plan almost met the moment.
— Steve Paikin on what’s next for Bonnie Crombie (who says she’s “determined to stay on and finish the job I started”).
— Lilley says Caroline Mulroney should be Canada’s next woman in Washington.
— Regg Cohn says Ford is undermining democracy and botching the response to the measles.
— Mike Schreiner argues the Ford government shouldn’t flirt with a rules-free zone like Russia and China’s.
— On criminal justice changes, Mark Harding argues Ford’s actions do all the talking.
— Prefabricated housing is the solution to the shortage, Cathy Polan writes.
— Shoppers billed the province more than $61-million for prescription reviews in just over a year.
— The price of single-family homes slid for a third straight month in April.
— A 20-metre “bubble zone” around schools, daycares and places of worship could be coming to Toronto.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Nate Erskine-Smith? Karina Gould? Kamal Khera? Nav Bains? I want to hear from you — and you’ll stay anonymous, just like those mysterious sources you’re curious about. We’ll be back in your inbox on Friday, May 30.
The budget is out — and it’s bleeding red ink. We have the highlights and the reaction. But before we dig in, everyone’s talking about Nate Erskine-Smith.
— Shut out of cabinet, could Erskine-Smith pose a threat Bonnie Crombie’s leadership?
The ex-leadership contender lost his cabinet post on Monday, replaced by former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson.
What he said: “I ran again because of the opportunity to make an even bigger difference around the cabinet table and to help fix the housing crisis,” he wrote in a Substack post. “The way it played out doesn’t sit right and it’s impossible not to feel disrespected.”
What he didn’t say: Erskine-Smith — who shelved his plan to exit federal politics — is staying coy: “You never know what the future holds.”
For the most part, on the question of Crombie’s leadership, it’s been crickets lately. But for some discontented Liberals, the snub has reignited the conversation about a post-Bonnie Crombie alternative, with a leadership review set to take place in the fall.
There’s no open revolt, but behind the scenes, two plugged-in organizers say some are already sketching out scenarios for the September vote.
“There’s nothing formal,” one organizer said, adding it’s not just Erskine-Smith loyalists — but “red-blooded Liberals who feel Bonnie misled us on her promise to revive the party.” “We’re brainstorming,” a second said.
(A source close to Erskine-Smith denied any pre-election organizing by his supporters — calling it a “flat-out lie”).
Though there’s “no clear Messiah” to save the party, the organizer explained, Erskine-Smith isn’t a shoo-in. “I want to stress that this isn’t an astroturf to bring in Nate, which some are suggesting. It’s more about tossing out” Crombie, they added. “Ultimately, we’ve had three catastrophic elections as a party, and refuse to learn from our mistakes.”
Both organizers, like other sources, name-dropped Karina Gould, Kamal Khera and Navdeep Bains as possible challengers.
For both, it’s bigger than Bonnie. “We never learned our lessons,” the second organizer said, pointing to the last post-election debrief. That report zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
“The next post-mortem is going to look a lot like the last two because [Crombie] didn’t advance on them,” they added. “Why can’t we recruit good candidates? Why are PLAs drying up like grapes on a vince? Why do we struggle to sell a package that resonates with voters?”
Despite the discontent, those in Crombie’s orbit have insisted to this reporter she’ll be able to hold on — and have framed what a “win” would look like.
“50+1 is the standard,” according to one source. “She got thrown into an election [a year early] and achieved what she set out to do. She restored party status, increased the vote, increased fundraising. Had she won her seat, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.”
As for Erskine-Smith: Asked about a challenge to Crombie, the Liberal leader’s ex-rival said: “It remains to be seen. Who knows?”
Crombie, for her part, shot back with an icy one-liner: “I’m focused on the people of Ontario. That’s where my heart is,” she told reporters. “And you know, that Member of Parliament is really hurting right now, so let’s leave it at that.”
— Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence, the Ford government’s $232-billion budget is out — and it’s bleeding red.
Here’s what you need to know:
— There’s more red. The deficit is now forecast at $14.6 billion, up from $4.6 billion, with most of the $10-billion spike linked to the trade war response.
— There’s still slow growth. Real GDP is on track to shrink from 1.5 per cent to 0.8 per cent. A 1.9 per cent hike is expected in 2027 and 2028.
The debt to GDP ratio will stay below the 40 per cent target, projected at 37.9 per cent in 25-26, 38.9 per cent in 26–27 and 38.6 per cent in 27–28.
Expect employment growth to take a hit. It’ll increase by 0.9 per cent this year, before slipping to just a 0.4 per cent bump next year. 73,000 new jobs are expected this year, down from the projected 130,000 last year.
— Spending is still up. It will hit $232.5 billion this year, growing to $233.7 billion in 2026-27 and $235.7 billion the year after.
— Brace for a squeeze. Health care spending will hit $91.1 billion — up 2 per cent from last year. Of that boost, $1.1 billion is earmarked for hospitals, covering core funding, targeted investments and surgical spending.
After a $2.6 billion top-up this year, education funding will stall out at $41 billion for the next three. Social services spending will climb to $20.6 billion this year, before freezing at $20.4 billion through 27-28.
Revenue is on track to fall to $220 billion, down $1.6 billion year-over-year, dragged down by weaker corporate returns.
— No relief in sight for slumping housing starts. Against a 1.5 million-home target by 2031, the province is projected to build just 71,800 this year. The pace is projected to slow, with 74,800 new units next year, down from 94,400 forecasted last year.
— Past the bottom line, here’s what’s also in the budget:
— The Ford government is tearing up the bike lanes on University and Avenue. But here’s the catch: the power to scrap bike lanes is moving from the minister to the legislature — a tweak that could make it harder to challenge in court.
By legislating the bike lane removals instead of leaving it to a minister, the government is hoping to avoid court scrutiny — since laws passed by the legislature don’t have to meet the same standards of procedural fairness. Still, the courts haven’t always played along (one example: Bill 124).
— Are you a cabinet minister? All former cabinet ministers — past and future — will now be an "Honorary Member of the Executive Council.” With it, they’ll get to keep the “Honourable” title, too.
— Priorities, as told by the most repeated words: Debt: 198; Trade: 105; Transit: 90; Tariffs: 83; Education: 52; Deficit: 42; GO: 41; Alcohol: 33; Homes: 31; Healthcare: 29; Wine: 29; Highways: 28; Historic: 19; Spirits: 17; Balance: 8; Carbon Tax: 8; Bike Lanes: 4; Autism: 3; ODSP: 1; Trump: 1.
— How it landed: NDP leader Marit Stiles called the budget a “band-aid” blueprint, with “little hope and no reassurance.” Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie said it was “another painful reminder that Doug Ford doesn’t govern for the people of Ontario, he governs for the few who have his phone number.”
“This budget ignores the fact that people are going to be hurt by the trade war,” added Green leader Mike Schreiner. “We need a budget that actually invests in people.”
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation called the gas tax cut “a clear win” — but slammed the budget as “financially irresponsible” for piling on debt with no repayment plan.
The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities said the budget gives them reason to be “encouraged.” The Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario was on the same page.
The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters thanked the government for taking “decisive action… to support manufacturers.”
The Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario is “sound[ing] the alarm” on the province’s “refusal to address the chronic underfunding of the public education system,” which also has the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation “deeply concerned.”
“This government needs to recognize that ’Made in Canada’ is about more than just products — it is about people, and it starts in our publicly funded public schools,” added the Ontario English Catholic Teachers’ Association.
Ontario’s Federation of Labour called the budget “a plan to reward Conservative insiders.”
— The House is out next week.
— A lull on the committee circuit next week.
Interior will meet on Thursday at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. for public hearings on Bill 5, which would fast-track mining approvals through the creation of rules-free special economic zones (earning no love from opponents or advocacy groups).
— Public consultations on Bill 5 will continue on May 26, with Bill 2 on May 27. It’s not too late to submit in writing.
— Ford Fest is on. Premier Ford’s annual grill-fest is going down at Centennial Park in Etobicoke. Like last year, he’s poised to take the summer fest on a province-wide swing. RSVP here.
Name a reporter who’d pass up a good hot dog? Not this one. I’ll be roaming Ford Fest, grill-watching, crowd-wading and vibing to DJ Dan Jacobs’ spins. Come say hello!
— Manitoba and Ontario inked a deal to scrap interprovincial trade barriers. As Wab Kinew put it: “I think we’ve got a real window of opportunity now to do nation-building projects that have just been ideas for the past number of years.” The Winnipeg Free Press digs in.
— Once orange, always orange: Post-podium with Ford, Kinew stopped by to meet with Marit Stiles and her caucus.
From one person in the room: “He reminded us of what good government can do, inspiring us to get to that point.” One aide grew emotional, thanking Kinew for opening the door to Gazan children to receive urgent medical care, according to a second person.
Naheed Nenshi was also in Toronto for a tête-à-tête with Stiles.
— In the hot seat: Premier Ford’s ex-right-hand man, Amin Massoudi — once described as “like family” — has been sanctioned by the integrity cop for breaking lobbying rules. The Star has the story.
To wit: Massoudi “... did not comply with the Lobbyists Registration Act ’by failing to file a registration after lobbying a public office-holder about his client’s request during a telephone call’ in 2023.”
— Bill 17, Protect Ontario by Building Faster and Smarter Act — Rob Flack’s front-page housing bill, which would speed up approval processes, end the city-by-city approach to construction codes, standardize development charges and fast-track transit projects.
— Bill 18, Supply Act — A routine bill, tabled by Caroline Mulroney, to rubber-stamp government spending from the past fiscal year.
— Bill 19, Patient-to-Nurse Ratios for Hospitals Act — The bill, tabled by France Gélinas, would set out the patient count per nurse, on a case-by-case basis.
— Bill 20, Promoting Leisure Activities for Youth — Stephen Blais’ bill would hand families a non-refundable tax break of up to $1,000 for enrolling kids in extracurriculars.
— Bill 21, Protect Our Food Act — Co-sponsored by Mike Schreiner and Bobbi Ann Brady, the bill would create a new advisory board on the “preservation and enhancement of a geographically continuous land base” and block ag-designated lands from being rezoned.
— Bill 22, Ontario University Athletics Week Act — Tabled by ex-Olympic rower Brian Saunderson, it would proclaim the first full week of October as Ontario University Athletics Week.
— Bill 23, Protecting Seniors’ Rights in Care Homes Act — Tabled by Lise Vaugeois, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell and Chandra Pasma, the bill would beef up protections for seniors in long-term care.
— Bill 24, Plan to Protect Ontario Act — The government’s must-pass budget bill.
— Bill PR3 was ordered for second reading.
— Second reading of Bill 6, Bill 9, Bill 11, Bill 13 and Bill 17 continued.
— Bill 18 was ordered for third reading.
— Opposition Day #3 was voted down, with 69 against and 40 in favour. Marit Stiles’ motion called on the Ford government to “designate critical hospital infrastructure as nation-building projects.”
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 182 new cases — bringing the total to 1,622 since the fall.
35.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas. Hamilton joined the list, logging a single case.
— Kristina Tesser Derksen is the winner of a recount in Milton East-Halton Hills South. She beat ex-cabinet minister Parm Gill by a 21-vote margin.
— A new poll by Liaison Strategies found the Tories are still soaking up the post-election glow with 46 per cent support, while the NDP get “squeezed out” at 13 per cent. 36 per cent picked the Liberals.
— Meanwhile, Nick Kouvalis found that 41 per cent think the province is veering on the “wrong track,” while 34 per cent say the opposite.
— The pre-budget pulse: Abacus tested voter sentiment on taxation, public services, privatized care, job growth and some of the Ford government’s lightning-rod policies.
Here’s what they found:
— The ifs are aplenty in yesterday’s budget, John Michael McGrath says.
— By calling an early election, Doug Ford got ahead of a bad-news budget, Martin Regg Cohn writes.
— For Brian Lilley, things could’ve been worse.
— It was always going to be a balancing act, Brian Lewis argues, while an ex-FAO says the plan almost met the moment.
— Steve Paikin on what’s next for Bonnie Crombie (who says she’s “determined to stay on and finish the job I started”).
— Lilley says Caroline Mulroney should be Canada’s next woman in Washington.
— Regg Cohn says Ford is undermining democracy and botching the response to the measles.
— Mike Schreiner argues the Ford government shouldn’t flirt with a rules-free zone like Russia and China’s.
— On criminal justice changes, Mark Harding argues Ford’s actions do all the talking.
— Prefabricated housing is the solution to the shortage, Cathy Polan writes.
— Shoppers billed the province more than $61-million for prescription reviews in just over a year.
— The price of single-family homes slid for a third straight month in April.
— A 20-metre “bubble zone” around schools, daycares and places of worship could be coming to Toronto.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Nate Erskine-Smith? Karina Gould? Kamal Khera? Nav Bains? I want to hear from you — and you’ll stay anonymous, just like those mysterious sources you’re curious about. We’ll be back in your inbox on Friday, May 30.
The budget is out — and it’s bleeding red ink. We have the highlights and the reaction. But before we dig in, everyone’s talking about Nate Erskine-Smith.
— Shut out of cabinet, could Erskine-Smith pose a threat Bonnie Crombie’s leadership?
The ex-leadership contender lost his cabinet post on Monday, replaced by former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson.
What he said: “I ran again because of the opportunity to make an even bigger difference around the cabinet table and to help fix the housing crisis,” he wrote in a Substack post. “The way it played out doesn’t sit right and it’s impossible not to feel disrespected.”
What he didn’t say: Erskine-Smith — who shelved his plan to exit federal politics — is staying coy: “You never know what the future holds.”
For the most part, on the question of Crombie’s leadership, it’s been crickets lately. But for some discontented Liberals, the snub has reignited the conversation about a post-Bonnie Crombie alternative, with a leadership review set to take place in the fall.
There’s no open revolt, but behind the scenes, two plugged-in organizers say some are already sketching out scenarios for the September vote.
“There’s nothing formal,” one organizer said, adding it’s not just Erskine-Smith loyalists — but “red-blooded Liberals who feel Bonnie misled us on her promise to revive the party.” “We’re brainstorming,” a second said.
(A source close to Erskine-Smith denied any pre-election organizing by his supporters — calling it a “flat-out lie”).
Though there’s “no clear Messiah” to save the party, the organizer explained, Erskine-Smith isn’t a shoo-in. “I want to stress that this isn’t an astroturf to bring in Nate, which some are suggesting. It’s more about tossing out” Crombie, they added. “Ultimately, we’ve had three catastrophic elections as a party, and refuse to learn from our mistakes.”
Both organizers, like other sources, name-dropped Karina Gould, Kamal Khera and Navdeep Bains as possible challengers.
For both, it’s bigger than Bonnie. “We never learned our lessons,” the second organizer said, pointing to the last post-election debrief. That report zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
“The next post-mortem is going to look a lot like the last two because [Crombie] didn’t advance on them,” they added. “Why can’t we recruit good candidates? Why are PLAs drying up like grapes on a vince? Why do we struggle to sell a package that resonates with voters?”
Despite the discontent, those in Crombie’s orbit have insisted to this reporter she’ll be able to hold on — and have framed what a “win” would look like.
“50+1 is the standard,” according to one source. “She got thrown into an election [a year early] and achieved what she set out to do. She restored party status, increased the vote, increased fundraising. Had she won her seat, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.”
As for Erskine-Smith: Asked about a challenge to Crombie, the Liberal leader’s ex-rival said: “It remains to be seen. Who knows?”
Crombie, for her part, shot back with an icy one-liner: “I’m focused on the people of Ontario. That’s where my heart is,” she told reporters. “And you know, that Member of Parliament is really hurting right now, so let’s leave it at that.”
— Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence, the Ford government’s $232-billion budget is out — and it’s bleeding red.
Here’s what you need to know:
— There’s more red. The deficit is now forecast at $14.6 billion, up from $4.6 billion, with most of the $10-billion spike linked to the trade war response.
— There’s still slow growth. Real GDP is on track to shrink from 1.5 per cent to 0.8 per cent. A 1.9 per cent hike is expected in 2027 and 2028.
The debt to GDP ratio will stay below the 40 per cent target, projected at 37.9 per cent in 25-26, 38.9 per cent in 26–27 and 38.6 per cent in 27–28.
Expect employment growth to take a hit. It’ll increase by 0.9 per cent this year, before slipping to just a 0.4 per cent bump next year. 73,000 new jobs are expected this year, down from the projected 130,000 last year.
— Spending is still up. It will hit $232.5 billion this year, growing to $233.7 billion in 2026-27 and $235.7 billion the year after.
— Brace for a squeeze. Health care spending will hit $91.1 billion — up 2 per cent from last year. Of that boost, $1.1 billion is earmarked for hospitals, covering core funding, targeted investments and surgical spending.
After a $2.6 billion top-up this year, education funding will stall out at $41 billion for the next three. Social services spending will climb to $20.6 billion this year, before freezing at $20.4 billion through 27-28.
Revenue is on track to fall to $220 billion, down $1.6 billion year-over-year, dragged down by weaker corporate returns.
— No relief in sight for slumping housing starts. Against a 1.5 million-home target by 2031, the province is projected to build just 71,800 this year. The pace is projected to slow, with 74,800 new units next year, down from 94,400 forecasted last year.
— Past the bottom line, here’s what’s also in the budget:
— The Ford government is tearing up the bike lanes on University and Avenue. But here’s the catch: the power to scrap bike lanes is moving from the minister to the legislature — a tweak that could make it harder to challenge in court.
By legislating the bike lane removals instead of leaving it to a minister, the government is hoping to avoid court scrutiny — since laws passed by the legislature don’t have to meet the same standards of procedural fairness. Still, the courts haven’t always played along (one example: Bill 124).
— Are you a cabinet minister? All former cabinet ministers — past and future — will now be an "Honorary Member of the Executive Council.” With it, they’ll get to keep the “Honourable” title, too.
— Priorities, as told by the most repeated words: Debt: 198; Trade: 105; Transit: 90; Tariffs: 83; Education: 52; Deficit: 42; GO: 41; Alcohol: 33; Homes: 31; Healthcare: 29; Wine: 29; Highways: 28; Historic: 19; Spirits: 17; Balance: 8; Carbon Tax: 8; Bike Lanes: 4; Autism: 3; ODSP: 1; Trump: 1.
— How it landed: NDP leader Marit Stiles called the budget a “band-aid” blueprint, with “little hope and no reassurance.” Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie said it was “another painful reminder that Doug Ford doesn’t govern for the people of Ontario, he governs for the few who have his phone number.”
“This budget ignores the fact that people are going to be hurt by the trade war,” added Green leader Mike Schreiner. “We need a budget that actually invests in people.”
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation called the gas tax cut “a clear win” — but slammed the budget as “financially irresponsible” for piling on debt with no repayment plan.
The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities said the budget gives them reason to be “encouraged.” The Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario was on the same page.
The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters thanked the government for taking “decisive action… to support manufacturers.”
The Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario is “sound[ing] the alarm” on the province’s “refusal to address the chronic underfunding of the public education system,” which also has the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation “deeply concerned.”
“This government needs to recognize that ’Made in Canada’ is about more than just products — it is about people, and it starts in our publicly funded public schools,” added the Ontario English Catholic Teachers’ Association.
Ontario’s Federation of Labour called the budget “a plan to reward Conservative insiders.”
— The House is out next week.
— A lull on the committee circuit next week.
Interior will meet on Thursday at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. for public hearings on Bill 5, which would fast-track mining approvals through the creation of rules-free special economic zones (earning no love from opponents or advocacy groups).
— Public consultations on Bill 5 will continue on May 26, with Bill 2 on May 27. It’s not too late to submit in writing.
— Ford Fest is on. Premier Ford’s annual grill-fest is going down at Centennial Park in Etobicoke. Like last year, he’s poised to take the summer fest on a province-wide swing. RSVP here.
Name a reporter who’d pass up a good hot dog? Not this one. I’ll be roaming Ford Fest, grill-watching, crowd-wading and vibing to DJ Dan Jacobs’ spins. Come say hello!
— Manitoba and Ontario inked a deal to scrap interprovincial trade barriers. As Wab Kinew put it: “I think we’ve got a real window of opportunity now to do nation-building projects that have just been ideas for the past number of years.” The Winnipeg Free Press digs in.
— Once orange, always orange: Post-podium with Ford, Kinew stopped by to meet with Marit Stiles and her caucus.
From one person in the room: “He reminded us of what good government can do, inspiring us to get to that point.” One aide grew emotional, thanking Kinew for opening the door to Gazan children to receive urgent medical care, according to a second person.
Naheed Nenshi was also in Toronto for a tête-à-tête with Stiles.
— In the hot seat: Premier Ford’s ex-right-hand man, Amin Massoudi — once described as “like family” — has been sanctioned by the integrity cop for breaking lobbying rules. The Star has the story.
To wit: Massoudi “... did not comply with the Lobbyists Registration Act ’by failing to file a registration after lobbying a public office-holder about his client’s request during a telephone call’ in 2023.”
— Bill 17, Protect Ontario by Building Faster and Smarter Act — Rob Flack’s front-page housing bill, which would speed up approval processes, end the city-by-city approach to construction codes, standardize development charges and fast-track transit projects.
— Bill 18, Supply Act — A routine bill, tabled by Caroline Mulroney, to rubber-stamp government spending from the past fiscal year.
— Bill 19, Patient-to-Nurse Ratios for Hospitals Act — The bill, tabled by France Gélinas, would set out the patient count per nurse, on a case-by-case basis.
— Bill 20, Promoting Leisure Activities for Youth — Stephen Blais’ bill would hand families a non-refundable tax break of up to $1,000 for enrolling kids in extracurriculars.
— Bill 21, Protect Our Food Act — Co-sponsored by Mike Schreiner and Bobbi Ann Brady, the bill would create a new advisory board on the “preservation and enhancement of a geographically continuous land base” and block ag-designated lands from being rezoned.
— Bill 22, Ontario University Athletics Week Act — Tabled by ex-Olympic rower Brian Saunderson, it would proclaim the first full week of October as Ontario University Athletics Week.
— Bill 23, Protecting Seniors’ Rights in Care Homes Act — Tabled by Lise Vaugeois, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell and Chandra Pasma, the bill would beef up protections for seniors in long-term care.
— Bill 24, Plan to Protect Ontario Act — The government’s must-pass budget bill.
— Bill PR3 was ordered for second reading.
— Second reading of Bill 6, Bill 9, Bill 11, Bill 13 and Bill 17 continued.
— Bill 18 was ordered for third reading.
— Opposition Day #3 was voted down, with 69 against and 40 in favour. Marit Stiles’ motion called on the Ford government to “designate critical hospital infrastructure as nation-building projects.”
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 182 new cases — bringing the total to 1,622 since the fall.
35.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas. Hamilton joined the list, logging a single case.
— Kristina Tesser Derksen is the winner of a recount in Milton East-Halton Hills South. She beat ex-cabinet minister Parm Gill by a 21-vote margin.
— A new poll by Liaison Strategies found the Tories are still soaking up the post-election glow with 46 per cent support, while the NDP get “squeezed out” at 13 per cent. 36 per cent picked the Liberals.
— Meanwhile, Nick Kouvalis found that 41 per cent think the province is veering on the “wrong track,” while 34 per cent say the opposite.
— The pre-budget pulse: Abacus tested voter sentiment on taxation, public services, privatized care, job growth and some of the Ford government’s lightning-rod policies.
Here’s what they found:
— The ifs are aplenty in yesterday’s budget, John Michael McGrath says.
— By calling an early election, Doug Ford got ahead of a bad-news budget, Martin Regg Cohn writes.
— For Brian Lilley, things could’ve been worse.
— It was always going to be a balancing act, Brian Lewis argues, while an ex-FAO says the plan almost met the moment.
— Steve Paikin on what’s next for Bonnie Crombie (who says she’s “determined to stay on and finish the job I started”).
— Lilley says Caroline Mulroney should be Canada’s next woman in Washington.
— Regg Cohn says Ford is undermining democracy and botching the response to the measles.
— Mike Schreiner argues the Ford government shouldn’t flirt with a rules-free zone like Russia and China’s.
— On criminal justice changes, Mark Harding argues Ford’s actions do all the talking.
— Prefabricated housing is the solution to the shortage, Cathy Polan writes.
— Shoppers billed the province more than $61-million for prescription reviews in just over a year.
— The price of single-family homes slid for a third straight month in April.
— A 20-metre “bubble zone” around schools, daycares and places of worship could be coming to Toronto.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Nate Erskine-Smith? Karina Gould? Kamal Khera? Nav Bains? I want to hear from you — and you’ll stay anonymous, just like those mysterious sources you’re curious about. We’ll be back in your inbox on Friday, May 30.
The budget is out — and it’s bleeding red ink. We have the highlights and the reaction. But before we dig in, everyone’s talking about Nate Erskine-Smith.
— Shut out of cabinet, could Erskine-Smith pose a threat Bonnie Crombie’s leadership?
The ex-leadership contender lost his cabinet post on Monday, replaced by former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson.
What he said: “I ran again because of the opportunity to make an even bigger difference around the cabinet table and to help fix the housing crisis,” he wrote in a Substack post. “The way it played out doesn’t sit right and it’s impossible not to feel disrespected.”
What he didn’t say: Erskine-Smith — who shelved his plan to exit federal politics — is staying coy: “You never know what the future holds.”
For the most part, on the question of Crombie’s leadership, it’s been crickets lately. But for some discontented Liberals, the snub has reignited the conversation about a post-Bonnie Crombie alternative, with a leadership review set to take place in the fall.
There’s no open revolt, but behind the scenes, two plugged-in organizers say some are already sketching out scenarios for the September vote.
“There’s nothing formal,” one organizer said, adding it’s not just Erskine-Smith loyalists — but “red-blooded Liberals who feel Bonnie misled us on her promise to revive the party.” “We’re brainstorming,” a second said.
(A source close to Erskine-Smith denied any pre-election organizing by his supporters — calling it a “flat-out lie”).
Though there’s “no clear Messiah” to save the party, the organizer explained, Erskine-Smith isn’t a shoo-in. “I want to stress that this isn’t an astroturf to bring in Nate, which some are suggesting. It’s more about tossing out” Crombie, they added. “Ultimately, we’ve had three catastrophic elections as a party, and refuse to learn from our mistakes.”
Both organizers, like other sources, name-dropped Karina Gould, Kamal Khera and Navdeep Bains as possible challengers.
For both, it’s bigger than Bonnie. “We never learned our lessons,” the second organizer said, pointing to the last post-election debrief. That report zeroed in on sloppy vetting, poor volunteer recruitment and voter data and a split between old-school and modern campaign philosophies.
“The next post-mortem is going to look a lot like the last two because [Crombie] didn’t advance on them,” they added. “Why can’t we recruit good candidates? Why are PLAs drying up like grapes on a vince? Why do we struggle to sell a package that resonates with voters?”
Despite the discontent, those in Crombie’s orbit have insisted to this reporter she’ll be able to hold on — and have framed what a “win” would look like.
“50+1 is the standard,” according to one source. “She got thrown into an election [a year early] and achieved what she set out to do. She restored party status, increased the vote, increased fundraising. Had she won her seat, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.”
As for Erskine-Smith: Asked about a challenge to Crombie, the Liberal leader’s ex-rival said: “It remains to be seen. Who knows?”
Crombie, for her part, shot back with an icy one-liner: “I’m focused on the people of Ontario. That’s where my heart is,” she told reporters. “And you know, that Member of Parliament is really hurting right now, so let’s leave it at that.”
— Spooked by cross-border trade turbulence, the Ford government’s $232-billion budget is out — and it’s bleeding red.
Here’s what you need to know:
— There’s more red. The deficit is now forecast at $14.6 billion, up from $4.6 billion, with most of the $10-billion spike linked to the trade war response.
— There’s still slow growth. Real GDP is on track to shrink from 1.5 per cent to 0.8 per cent. A 1.9 per cent hike is expected in 2027 and 2028.
The debt to GDP ratio will stay below the 40 per cent target, projected at 37.9 per cent in 25-26, 38.9 per cent in 26–27 and 38.6 per cent in 27–28.
Expect employment growth to take a hit. It’ll increase by 0.9 per cent this year, before slipping to just a 0.4 per cent bump next year. 73,000 new jobs are expected this year, down from the projected 130,000 last year.
— Spending is still up. It will hit $232.5 billion this year, growing to $233.7 billion in 2026-27 and $235.7 billion the year after.
— Brace for a squeeze. Health care spending will hit $91.1 billion — up 2 per cent from last year. Of that boost, $1.1 billion is earmarked for hospitals, covering core funding, targeted investments and surgical spending.
After a $2.6 billion top-up this year, education funding will stall out at $41 billion for the next three. Social services spending will climb to $20.6 billion this year, before freezing at $20.4 billion through 27-28.
Revenue is on track to fall to $220 billion, down $1.6 billion year-over-year, dragged down by weaker corporate returns.
— No relief in sight for slumping housing starts. Against a 1.5 million-home target by 2031, the province is projected to build just 71,800 this year. The pace is projected to slow, with 74,800 new units next year, down from 94,400 forecasted last year.
— Past the bottom line, here’s what’s also in the budget:
— The Ford government is tearing up the bike lanes on University and Avenue. But here’s the catch: the power to scrap bike lanes is moving from the minister to the legislature — a tweak that could make it harder to challenge in court.
By legislating the bike lane removals instead of leaving it to a minister, the government is hoping to avoid court scrutiny — since laws passed by the legislature don’t have to meet the same standards of procedural fairness. Still, the courts haven’t always played along (one example: Bill 124).
— Are you a cabinet minister? All former cabinet ministers — past and future — will now be an "Honorary Member of the Executive Council.” With it, they’ll get to keep the “Honourable” title, too.
— Priorities, as told by the most repeated words: Debt: 198; Trade: 105; Transit: 90; Tariffs: 83; Education: 52; Deficit: 42; GO: 41; Alcohol: 33; Homes: 31; Healthcare: 29; Wine: 29; Highways: 28; Historic: 19; Spirits: 17; Balance: 8; Carbon Tax: 8; Bike Lanes: 4; Autism: 3; ODSP: 1; Trump: 1.
— How it landed: NDP leader Marit Stiles called the budget a “band-aid” blueprint, with “little hope and no reassurance.” Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie said it was “another painful reminder that Doug Ford doesn’t govern for the people of Ontario, he governs for the few who have his phone number.”
“This budget ignores the fact that people are going to be hurt by the trade war,” added Green leader Mike Schreiner. “We need a budget that actually invests in people.”
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation called the gas tax cut “a clear win” — but slammed the budget as “financially irresponsible” for piling on debt with no repayment plan.
The Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities said the budget gives them reason to be “encouraged.” The Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario was on the same page.
The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters thanked the government for taking “decisive action… to support manufacturers.”
The Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario is “sound[ing] the alarm” on the province’s “refusal to address the chronic underfunding of the public education system,” which also has the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation “deeply concerned.”
“This government needs to recognize that ’Made in Canada’ is about more than just products — it is about people, and it starts in our publicly funded public schools,” added the Ontario English Catholic Teachers’ Association.
Ontario’s Federation of Labour called the budget “a plan to reward Conservative insiders.”
— The House is out next week.
— A lull on the committee circuit next week.
Interior will meet on Thursday at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. for public hearings on Bill 5, which would fast-track mining approvals through the creation of rules-free special economic zones (earning no love from opponents or advocacy groups).
— Public consultations on Bill 5 will continue on May 26, with Bill 2 on May 27. It’s not too late to submit in writing.
— Ford Fest is on. Premier Ford’s annual grill-fest is going down at Centennial Park in Etobicoke. Like last year, he’s poised to take the summer fest on a province-wide swing. RSVP here.
Name a reporter who’d pass up a good hot dog? Not this one. I’ll be roaming Ford Fest, grill-watching, crowd-wading and vibing to DJ Dan Jacobs’ spins. Come say hello!
— Manitoba and Ontario inked a deal to scrap interprovincial trade barriers. As Wab Kinew put it: “I think we’ve got a real window of opportunity now to do nation-building projects that have just been ideas for the past number of years.” The Winnipeg Free Press digs in.
— Once orange, always orange: Post-podium with Ford, Kinew stopped by to meet with Marit Stiles and her caucus.
From one person in the room: “He reminded us of what good government can do, inspiring us to get to that point.” One aide grew emotional, thanking Kinew for opening the door to Gazan children to receive urgent medical care, according to a second person.
Naheed Nenshi was also in Toronto for a tête-à-tête with Stiles.
— In the hot seat: Premier Ford’s ex-right-hand man, Amin Massoudi — once described as “like family” — has been sanctioned by the integrity cop for breaking lobbying rules. The Star has the story.
To wit: Massoudi “... did not comply with the Lobbyists Registration Act ’by failing to file a registration after lobbying a public office-holder about his client’s request during a telephone call’ in 2023.”
— Bill 17, Protect Ontario by Building Faster and Smarter Act — Rob Flack’s front-page housing bill, which would speed up approval processes, end the city-by-city approach to construction codes, standardize development charges and fast-track transit projects.
— Bill 18, Supply Act — A routine bill, tabled by Caroline Mulroney, to rubber-stamp government spending from the past fiscal year.
— Bill 19, Patient-to-Nurse Ratios for Hospitals Act — The bill, tabled by France Gélinas, would set out the patient count per nurse, on a case-by-case basis.
— Bill 20, Promoting Leisure Activities for Youth — Stephen Blais’ bill would hand families a non-refundable tax break of up to $1,000 for enrolling kids in extracurriculars.
— Bill 21, Protect Our Food Act — Co-sponsored by Mike Schreiner and Bobbi Ann Brady, the bill would create a new advisory board on the “preservation and enhancement of a geographically continuous land base” and block ag-designated lands from being rezoned.
— Bill 22, Ontario University Athletics Week Act — Tabled by ex-Olympic rower Brian Saunderson, it would proclaim the first full week of October as Ontario University Athletics Week.
— Bill 23, Protecting Seniors’ Rights in Care Homes Act — Tabled by Lise Vaugeois, Chris Glover, Jessica Bell and Chandra Pasma, the bill would beef up protections for seniors in long-term care.
— Bill 24, Plan to Protect Ontario Act — The government’s must-pass budget bill.
— Bill PR3 was ordered for second reading.
— Second reading of Bill 6, Bill 9, Bill 11, Bill 13 and Bill 17 continued.
— Bill 18 was ordered for third reading.
— Opposition Day #3 was voted down, with 69 against and 40 in favour. Marit Stiles’ motion called on the Ford government to “designate critical hospital infrastructure as nation-building projects.”
— Tracking the measles: Public Health Ontario is reporting 182 new cases — bringing the total to 1,622 since the fall.
35.4 per cent of cases are from Oxford County, Elgin County and St. Thomas. Hamilton joined the list, logging a single case.
— Kristina Tesser Derksen is the winner of a recount in Milton East-Halton Hills South. She beat ex-cabinet minister Parm Gill by a 21-vote margin.
— A new poll by Liaison Strategies found the Tories are still soaking up the post-election glow with 46 per cent support, while the NDP get “squeezed out” at 13 per cent. 36 per cent picked the Liberals.
— Meanwhile, Nick Kouvalis found that 41 per cent think the province is veering on the “wrong track,” while 34 per cent say the opposite.
— The pre-budget pulse: Abacus tested voter sentiment on taxation, public services, privatized care, job growth and some of the Ford government’s lightning-rod policies.
Here’s what they found:
— The ifs are aplenty in yesterday’s budget, John Michael McGrath says.
— By calling an early election, Doug Ford got ahead of a bad-news budget, Martin Regg Cohn writes.
— For Brian Lilley, things could’ve been worse.
— It was always going to be a balancing act, Brian Lewis argues, while an ex-FAO says the plan almost met the moment.
— Steve Paikin on what’s next for Bonnie Crombie (who says she’s “determined to stay on and finish the job I started”).
— Lilley says Caroline Mulroney should be Canada’s next woman in Washington.
— Regg Cohn says Ford is undermining democracy and botching the response to the measles.
— Mike Schreiner argues the Ford government shouldn’t flirt with a rules-free zone like Russia and China’s.
— On criminal justice changes, Mark Harding argues Ford’s actions do all the talking.
— Prefabricated housing is the solution to the shortage, Cathy Polan writes.
— Shoppers billed the province more than $61-million for prescription reviews in just over a year.
— The price of single-family homes slid for a third straight month in April.
— A 20-metre “bubble zone” around schools, daycares and places of worship could be coming to Toronto.
Thank you for reading POLICORNER. Are you Nate Erskine-Smith? Karina Gould? Kamal Khera? Nav Bains? I want to hear from you — and you’ll stay anonymous, just like those mysterious sources you’re curious about. We’ll be back in your inbox on Friday, May 30.